Randwick for the last day of the carnival, where we have two final Group 1’s in the All Aged and the Champagne. This day has largely been forgotten in years gone by, but the All Aged is quite a good race each year. I think we will get to soft going by race day, and the rail is +7m from 1600m to W/P, +5m Remainder
QUADDIES (races) 6-7-8-9
Skinny Play: 1,8 – 1,9 – 1,3 – 1,3
Wide Play: 1,6,8 – 1,2,5,9,10 – 1,2,3,5,7,8 – 1,3,5,7,8,10
BEST BET: R6 – 1 INVADER
Next Best Bet: R4 – 1 TAKEDOWN
Best Roughie: R8 – 7 INVINCIBELLA
No 1 WAR HERO comes out of better races than this where the form has held up quite well. He does go well up in weight here taking on the older horses. He has handled all going in the past and from gate 9, he should sit just off them.
No 9 STILL UNDAUNTED did an amazing job last start when winning, he was a mile off them and picked them up over the 900m at Scone which is hard to do, he ran faster time than the open horses on the day which is something of note. He is on the way up and with 53.5 he can win.
No 2 MERCURIAL LAD needs to learn how to run straight if he is going to win better races, he has hung off the track at his last two yet still won. The trial in between was to fix his racing manners, with a host of gear changes, he should run well.
No 4 ATTAINMENT smashed them during the week at Goulburn, the trainer will back him up for sure. He loves wet going and looks to have come back well.
VALUE RUNNER: No 9 STILL UNDAUNTED
No 5 UNTAMED DIAMOND ran brilliantly upon resumption when she was trapped wide the trip, the trial in between runs was quite good. The form out of the fresh race was quite good and should hold up here. She handles all going and should be in the finish.
No 8 LOUIE SEA KAY made up a stack of ground late in the championships qualifier and the form of that race has stacked up brilliantly, back to 1200m here suits much better than the 1400m of the qualifier. From gate 10 he looks to get a good run on the map here.
No 10 YUMA DESERT has been trialing up quite well leading into this fresh run here and has found a winnable race here. She is adept in all going and although she didn’t win last prep she ran quite well and has her chance here.
No 4 CANNYESCENT has been going about his business quite well since joining the David Hayes team. This is his first run in Sydney since he was getting beat up on by Chetwood last year. His Sydney form is quite good and has won on wet going before and has his chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 UNTAMED DIAMOND
No 3 MONGOLIAN WOLF brings NZ Derby form to Sydney and well, let’s be honest they have been dominating all our 2000m + races all autumn. Forget his derby run where he had no luck and go off the Guineas run where he was two -lengths off Gingernuts. He is now with D Weir and has to be given his chance here.
No 1 ACATOUR found his form last start in the Carbine Club when winning quite well. Carbine club winners usually run quite well in this race, and the way he won last start has to beat the rest of the horses from that race here.
No 5 ROCK AND SWING found the line well enough in the Tulloch and stays at the 2000m, he was coming off a long break into this preparation and he now looks set to peak here. Wet going shouldn’t be an issue for him.
No 4 CAPTAIN DUFFY has found his form now and should hold it. I expect him to roll along here with not much pace in the race he could be very hard to run down.
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 ROCK AND SWING
No 1 TAKEDOWN (NEXT BEST) is the best horse in this race by a long way and if he brings his best form to this he should blow this lot away, the only blip on his resume last time in was his fifth over the Flemington Carnival where he had a bias against him. If he has come back from Hong Kong well, where he was only two-lengths off the winner, that should be good enough here.
No 3 REDZEL is a big query in running out a strong 1200m, but his form this time in has been fantastic and he has his chance.
No 8 HELLBENT is starting to become an “im gunna” horse, he has all the talent in the world but keeps finding excuses. At SWP he is well in.
No 4 COUNTERATTACK finds the weakest race he has run in, in a long time. At SWP he is well weighted and the trial since his last run was quite good.
VALUE RUNNER: No 4 COUNTERATTACK
No 6 NEW TIPPERARY was a monster run in the Doncaster when 3-4 wide the trip on a massive on fence bias day, he was running right through the line there and the step up to 2000m and back down in grade suit perfectly here and he has found a winnable race.
No 4 ASTRONOMOS big run last start against the bias and probably wasn’t given the best ride either, as said before, wet track and 2000m are massive ticks. As is the Randwick 2000m even more so. Collett off and Williams on add to his chances.
No 5 GREEN SWEET won quite well in a driving go at Albury, he has stepped up in both runs since he came to Australia and has missed the super wet tracks that we have been getting in Sydney as of late. The Albury form should hold up well and wet going isn’t an issue.
No 8 HAPPY HANNAH has found the line well enough leading into this run. Third-up, up to 2000m and on soft going are all ticks. She drops to 53kgs now and looks set to peak.
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 GREEN SWEET
No 1 INVADER (BEST BET) smashed them in the Sires and the step up here to the mile looks as if it will suit perfectly. He did have the bias on his side that day, but he had to run the leader down who had given a big kick there. He has big scope to improve yet again here and 1600m looks suitable.
No 8 WHISPERED SECRET won well last weekend sitting 3 wide the trip, she showed she can run the mile out and has to be considered.
No 6 ABERRO is well related and comes out of a race at Mornington that usually holds up well in the Champagne. The trial between runs was good.
No 3 ESHTIRAAK won the race at Mornington, but did have the bias in his advantage that day, there will be no fitter horse here.
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 ABERRO
No 9 ENGLISH won this race last year of an exact same set up. I still don’t know how she was run down in the TJ! Up to 1400m is no issue at all, she looks to get a dream run on the map and with even luck she will be in the finish.
No 1 LE ROMAIN was too bad to be true in the Doncaster, I am just simply forgetting that run and going off his previous runs this time in. If he bounces back to that form and has gotten over his Doncaster run he will be in the finish here.
No 5 MCCREERY found the line well enough in the Doncaster to be a chance here, back to the 1400m is a touch concerning. But with the blinkers back on he should be sharp enough to sprint well here.
No 10 DIVINE PROPHET is the “other form” coming into this race and his form is quite good. He has been beaten by bias twice this preparation. He gets the blinkers on for the first time here and off his recent jump out in Melbourne, he looks to be going well.
VALUE RUNNER: No 10 DIVINE PROPHET
No 1 RAIMENT should bounce back here after a poor effort last start, she had the bias against her and may well have been a touch flat after such a booming first-up run. She was even money last start and if she hadn’t have failed then, she would be $1.50 here.
No 3 PROMPT RESPONSE was really good first-up and had to chase the leader there. Second-up to 1400m she should be much more suited here and the cut in the ground shouldn’t be an issue at all.
No 7 INVINCIBELLA (BEST ROUGHIE) found the line well late upon resumption, she had the bias against her there and was quite good. Out to 1400m suits perfectly and she has a good second-up record.
No 2 DIDDUMS won quite well in the PJ Bell last start, even though she had the bias in her favor last start. She looks to take up the lead yet again here and if she is left alone in front they will struggle to run her down.
VALUE RUNNER: No 7 INVINCIBELLA
No 1 FABRIZIO has a great fresh record and resumes here off the back of two strong trials. His form last time in was undeniable and you just need to forget his Villiers run as he was over the top by then and the track was weird and sticky. Go back through the other form and he is hard to beat here.
No 3 MARENOSTRO has found a winnable race second-up here after not having a lot of luck fresh. The form out of that race should hold up quite well and looks to have so far. He loves wet tracks and has run his best races at around the 1400m mark.
No 7 LOFTY’S MENU found his form again with a big win at Albury when giving all horses weight, he actually came up the inside which didn’t suit that day. Out to 1400m shouldn’t worry at all as he is a winner at the distance in the past, yet to win in Sydney is a concern.
No 8 SORT AFTER was horrid fresh and its best to forget that, go off two trials leading into this and she looks to be moving quite well. Her wins have come second-up in the past and she is a winner on soft going and should get a good run on the map.
VALUE RUNNER: No 7 LOFTY’S MENU