Pakenham (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Pakenham. Today’s best bet is in race 7.
Racing returns to Pakenham for the weekly night meeting.
However there is a significant change as this meeting won’t be run on grass but on the synthetic track for the first time this year.
Makes it all a bit tricky with a lot of unexposed form in the early maiden races.
Suggest to watch markets closely.
The rail is at the true position and the weather is fine with a maximum on 25C and a minimum on 13C.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 4,5 / 1,4,6 / 2 / 3,4,9
Wide Play: 2,4,5,6 / 1,2,3,4,6 / 2,6,10,11 / 3,4,5,7,9,12,13
BEST BET: R7 – 2. CHINA DREAM
Next Best Bet: R5 – 5. ANGEL EIGHT
Best Roughie: R8 – 8. DOC’S HERO
R1 – 6.00pm. Racing.com 3yr Maiden – 1200m.
No4 ZEPHORA hails from a top stable and will be improved on his first-up start when finishing fifth over 1200m in a 3yr maiden here on April 6. Gets a change of rider with Luke Nolen replacing Daniel Moor and has a superior draw in two.
No6 LITTLE BITA SASS did not have the best shot at the leaders when held up for a moment before finishing second over 1200m against her own sex here on April 6. She will have benefitted from the outing and in a small field makes appeal.
No2 PREEMPTIVE was steady as a $4 favourite before finishing seventh over 1000m on a Heavy 8 at Stony Creek on April 10. Goes on to the synthetic track here and firm ground so may be better suited and gets a new rider in Jarrod Fry.
No3 STARSONFORTYFIVE is a son of Star Witness who ran a solid third at his third start over 1000m at Mornington on January 17. His trainer Jackie Beriman rides here as well and with a 93-day gap between runs could show further improvement.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 STARSONFORTYFIVE
R2 – 6.30pm. Polytrack 2yr Maiden – 1200m.
No9 PROPOSAL gets winkers on at her second start. She is from the State’s top juvenile yard and she was fancied at $5 when battling on well to run fifth over 1000m against her own sex at Sandown on March 29. She gets top jockey Damien Oliver to ride.
No8 BELLEGANO is a West Australian bred filly who was working to the line well at her sole trial over 800m finishing fourth at Cranbourne on April 3. She hails from the astute stable and has a good rider on board in Ryan Maloney.
No7 XIANG YU is a nicely bred colt from last season’s top two-year-old yard. He is a son of More Than Ready, but has no exposed form. William Reid Stakes winning jockey Katelyn Mallyon rides and would watch the market.
No2 BLUNAKKA eased out in the betting to $9.50 before finishing a solid sixth over 1100m in a 2yo maiden at Wangaratta on March 31. Gets top jockey Luke Nolen to steer here and is from the leading stable of Ciaron Maher.
VALUE RUNNER: No 2 BLUNAKKA
R3 – 7.00pm. XXXX Gold Maiden – 1200m.
No7 ZAMBOANGA has been consistent without winning but gets his chance here in a most moderate field. Was first-up when ran third over 1125m at Geelong in a maiden on April 4. Was steady at $4.80 and expect improvement.
No6 PURPLE RIDER has a tongue tie added to his gear and may pay to overlook last start when finishing seventh over 1600m in a maiden here on April 6. Ryan Maloney rides again and this is a meek field and can improve.
No5 OUR SON GEORGE has been placed at this track and he gets a tongue tie on after an unflattering ninth over 1200m at Cranbourne in a maiden on April 7. He won’t find a much weaker maiden in the provincials than here.
No3 BEFUDDLING was disappointing but was fresh when running tenth over 1000m in a maiden at Donald on April 7. Daniel Moor replaces Irish rider John Allen and he has been placed twice at four starts so there can be improvement.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 BEFUDDLING
R4 – 7.30pm. Pakenham Jeep Maiden – 1400m.
No7 GUANGZHOU is a lightly raced galloper who returns to the track after having been gelded. He also has blinkers on for the first time. He was backed from $7.50 into $5 last start when running fifth over 1400m in a maiden here on December 11.
No8 MALIBU AFFAIR was steady in the betting before finishing on well to run third over 1400m in a maiden at Ballarat on April 2. Has a Norton bit for the first time here and a Kyneton noseband on so expect him to be more tractable.
No10 BELLONA BELLE ran a steady fifth over 1600m in a maiden here on April 6. He gets experienced apprentice Ben Allen replacing a 3kg apprentice here and has some gear changes with winkers off and visors on.
No12 ISTRANI is a nicely bred 3yr filly from a good stable in trainer Pat Carey. She has no exposed form but this is a meek race and she has stable jockey Rhys McLeod to ride and is owned by one of the country’s best nurseries in Vinery Stud.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 BELONA BELLE
R5 – 8.00pm. My Financial Plan Handicap – 1600m.
No 5 ANGEL EIGHT (NEXT BEST BET) she is going to relish her big drop in class here. Last start she carried 54kg and finished off well to run ninth over 1600m against her own sex at Sandown on April 5. Craig Newitt sticks but she rises to 58kg for her plummet in class. She likes this track and expect her to be powering home here.
No4 ZIMZALA maiden winner at his debut and has good prospects here despite rise in grade.
No1 DREADED will appreciate the extra distance here and rates with good claims.
No2 SIR VAN DYKE solid first-up effort off a 180-day break and expect to be in the picture.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 DREADED
R6 – 8.30pm. Star News Group Handicap – 1400m.
No1 LUCKY PROSPECTOR was backed from $14 into $9.50 and collected the major prize over 1500m off a 68-day break at Cranbourne over 1500m on April 7. Is from a good betting stable and likes this distance and respect.
No4 SAVVY BANDIT pay to watch the betting on this fellow. Capped a sound campaign with a sixth over 2000m here on November 17. Michael Walker rode that time but apprentice Ben Allen gets the nod here and has heaps of upside.
No2 OCEAN GROVE was a winner two starts ago before having to work hard early before finishing second over 1400m here on April 6. Found the winner too good that time but is racing well and gets former top apprentice Michael Dee to ride.
No5 FOMO is a stablemate to Savvy Bandit and pay to watch here. Capped campaign with a sound fourth over 1400m at Cranbourne on November 25. Hails from an astute stable and gets the experienced Luke Currie to ride.
VALUE RUNNER: No14 SAVVY BANDIT
R7 – 9.00pm. TJS Services Handicap – 1200m.
No2 CHINA DREAM (BEST BET) now that he has broken the ice he can go on with the job. He was heavily backed from $3.10 into $2.50 first up when romping home over 1200m in a 3yo maiden here on March 2. Has been kept fresh for his return and has a good draw in three and gets the in-form Katelyn Mallyon to ride on 60kg in low grade. Makes strong appeal.
No11 OLD FARM ROAD has plenty of upside and bound to be improved second-up.
No1 ALL ABOUT RHYTHM goes well fresh and looks well suited in this race.
No3 JINX is racing well and pay to respect in this field.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 ALL ABOUT RHYTHM
R8 – 9.30pm. Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap – 1000m.
No4 FINE HERO has won twice and been placed twice at four starts. Left for the spelling paddock on a winning note over 1009m at Yarra Valley on January 10. He is chasing a hat-trick here and with Jack Martin’s claim carries 59kg.
No9 SARASWATI has won and ran third at two starts. Latest ran a solid third down the straight 1000m at Flemington on April 25 last year. Has obvious ability but must have issues as been a long time off. Expect her to be forward here.
No8 DOC’S HERO (BEST ROUGHIE) was backed into a $2.90 favourite before finishing a solid second over 1000m at Stony Creek on April 10. Goes up in grade here but she has an unblemished record of one start for a win at this track.
No3 BELIEVING should welcome the good tempo here and she a rates as a good chance. Has been a most reliable gelding who has a record of two placings first up and he did trial when finishing fifth over 800m at Cranbourne on April 3.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 DOC’S HERO