This is quite a tough fixture to find winners apart from a few races where the set weight conditions do favour certain runners.
Some wide open betting races here and continues the trend over the past few weeks of very competitive racing here in Victoria.
The false rail is out to eight metres for the entire circuit and the track is rated as a Good 3. There will be cloud overhead.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)
Skinny Play: 1,2 / 2,7,8 / 1,4,5,9 / 5,7,8,12
Wide Play: 1,2,7,9,12 / 1,2,3,6,7,8,10 / 1,2,4,5,8,9,11,13 / 2,5,6,7,8,12,14
BEST BET: R3 – 1. BURNING FRONT
Next Best Bet: R7 – 2 FAATINAH
Best Roughie: R8 – 9. MISS PROMISCUITY
No1 LIKE A CAROUSEL could rise here as he is a grinder and this is 4000m. He ran a fair seventh to Boom Time over 2425m here last Saturday. He faces a big drop in class here and he is as fit as a bull so he could sustain the longest run.
No3 BAYANOVA sure to have plenty of admirers on his grinding third over 3600m at Oakbank last Monday. Returns to Melbourne here ands will be keeping on keeping on as he is a plugger and rock hard fit for this. Dwayne Dunn rides.
No5 SPUR ON GOLD posted an imposing 1¾ length win over 3600m at Oakbank last Monday beating Prize and Bayanova at the Easter weekend fixture. He too is rock hard now and he drops 3kg to 54kg for his rematch here. Has plenty to like.
No4 PRIZE makes good appeal in what will be a grinding race after his sound second to Spur On Gold over 3600m at Oakbank last Monday. He gets the highly in-form Dean Yendall to partner and drops a massive 5kg to 54kg. Expect to be in the finish.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 SPUR ON GOLD
No3 PAY UP BRO has been most reliable and rates highly here after his last start when finishing off well to claim second over 1400m at Bendigo on April 1. He gest the 1.5kg claim of apprentice Jordan Childs here to reduce his impost to 57.5kg and he makes appeal in a deep race here.
No7 GRAND DREAMER did not have a lot of luck in the straight when warming up to run home finishing fifth over 1400m at Ballarat on March 26. He gets the strong rider Dwayne Dunn replacing a 2kg apprentice here and would expect a stronger effort with the run under his belt.
No5 SUPER HAZE is from a leading stable and gets a few changes to his gear with a tongue tie going on and winkers coming off. He gets a riding change with Group 1 winning rider Damian Lane booked after his seventh over 1600m at Flemington on March 19. Would have another look here.
No10 MR CHURCHILL has to be one of the most consistent gallopers running here. He is chasing a hat-trick after his brilliant win over 1600m at Pakenham on March 23. He drops 2kg for his rise in class listed to carry 56.5kg here. Nikita Beriman keeps the ride and has drawn perfectly in gate five.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 MR CHURCHILL
No1 BURNING FRONT (BEST BET) ran a fabulous race despite being challenged for the lead he fought hard to run fourth over 1600m at Bendigo on April 1. Trainer Darren Weir has freshened him for this and he drops 2.5kg to 58kg and will have stable rider Brad Rawiller to steer. He had previously notched five straight wins before his defeat. Should lead easy here.
No7 CHARLEVOIX has changed yards and is now running for Team Hayes. Has a good first-up record.
No11 MANAGERESS she gets the red hot Damian Lane to partner and he could lift her back.
No2 ZEBRINZ is in peak form and must rank as one of the better chances here.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 CHARLEVOIX
No9 RUTHVEN ran a cracking fourth to Jon Snow in the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick on April 1. That was on a bog track and will be on firmer going here but his form on top of the ground is top billing and with Luke Nolen riding he will lack nothing in horsemanship here.
No3 HARD CALL has been shining as bright as the sun and can continue to make his presence felt here after notching a hat-trick in the provincials. Latest posted a good win in the Yarra Valley Cup (1950m) on March19. He does jump up in weight from 54kg to 59kg but Stephen Baster keeps the mount.
No11 TOFFEE NOSE was matched against a deep field of fillies when she ran third as a $3.50 favourite over 1600m here on April 8. Her form has been first class and she again carries no weight on 54kg and has Damian Lane as her new rider here. Lane is in red hot form landing two Group 1s in Sydney this month.
No10 ROCKSTAR REBEL was having his third start back from a spell when finishing seventh over 1800m here on April 8. He gets the hot jockey Dean Yendall to partner here and looks now ready to spark up to his best form. He only has had seven starts so there is plenty of upside to this fellow.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 ROCKSTAR REBEL
No2 DANGER DEAL has been placed at four of five starts. This is a deep 2yo race and did run a sound second over 1300m at Morphettville on April 1. Gets top jockey Damian Lane to help assist cross from gate 10 and is race fit whereas others are not.
No1 KRONOS scored a tenacious win at debut over 1050m at Morphettville on April 8. Was steady in the betting that day at $5.50 and with Luke Currie on board gets his chance. Though his wide alley (17) is a hindrance to his chances.
No10 JE JUIS TYCOON she is a daughter of the State’s leading sire Written Tycoon and she kicked off to a good start when charging in to second over 1000m at Bendigo on April 1. She has drawn perfectly in gate one and has Chris Symons to ride again. Has a good case in a strong field.
No11 PURE SCOT is from the State’s premier juvenile yard in Team Hayes. She won at her debut last December and showed good speed at her comeback when running third to Speed Street and Je Juis Tycoon over 1000m at Bendigo on April 1. Has Dwayne Dunn to ride.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 KRONOS
No1 FRENCH EMOTION she is going to relish dropping back to her own sex after running a strong fourth over 1600m here last Saturday. Ben Melham is the new rider and she is suited here under the set weight and penalties conditions on 59kg. Favourite punters can get their money back from last week.
No2 WHISTLE BABY she is going to be super fit here after her last start when she ran on well enough over 1400m at Bendigo on April 1. She will carry 58kg against her own sex here and can give those who took the $3.20 favouritism last time a chance to get their money back.
No10 AVENUE WHISPER she is racing so consistently and she gave her backers a very good win after posting three placings at her previous four starts over 1400m at Bendigo on March 14. Top jockey Dean Yendall takes the reins and she is going to be primed for this clash against fillies and mares.
No5 DEJU BLUE her form can be patchy but she does drop in class here on her last start seventh over 1600m in the Group 2 Sunline Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on March 24. Jye McNeil takes the reins and she has been freshened up and did win in the city three starts ago.
VALUE RUNNER: No14 DEJU BLUE
No2 FAATINAH (NEXT BEST BET) he ran a cracking second in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) here before he struck an absolute quagmire at Rosehill when finishing tenth in the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) on March 18. If he repeats his Oakleigh form here on top of the ground he is going to prove most hard to beat. Apprentice Ben Allen has been given the job by the all powerful Team Hayes for the job.
No3 KAEPERNICK is absolutely racing at his best in the elite grade and must respect with any luck here.
No6 CRYSTAL DREAMER won here on April 8 in grand style and loves this track.
No12 ROCKET TOMMY has been rampaging through the grades with four straight wins.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 CRYSTAL DREAMER
No9 MISS PROMISCUITY (BEST ROUGHIE) she can go very well here under the set weight conditions. Her run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) was outstanding. Forget her unplaced effort in the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) at Rosehill when she struck an absolute bog. Can strike back.
No1 THERMAL CURRENT does look suited here under the set weight conditions. He did well enough when finishing fourth over 1000m here on April 8. Damian Lane is the new rider and he is in outstanding form at the moment and he can finish right inside the money today.
No4 RICH CHARM gets into this race very well on weight with a 1.5kg drop in weight on 59kg here on his last start win down the straight six at Flemington on March 18. He is racing in peak form and with Patrick Maloney at the helm again he should give the others plenty of cheek.
No5 LUCKY LIBERTY gets into the race well and will have 2015 Melbourne Cup winning jockey Michelle Payne riding again. He went out on a high with a brilliant win over 1200m here on December 26. He has a fabulous first-up record and should be in the money.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 MISS PROMISCUITY
No5 GREVISTE scored a tenacious half-length win in a maiden before going up into city grade where he again proved the dominant force to win over 1300m at Sandown on March 29. He is flying as high as a kite and can land a third straight win here. This is a deep race but he has a great gate in five and will be forward.
No8 THINK BABE she is a highly talented filly but she has a horror draw in gate 17. That has dented her chances of landing a third straight win after her fighting effort over 1400m at Ballarat on April 12. She gets the top stable jockey Dean Yendall to steer again though.
No7 KAZIO has plenty of upside with a win and two placings at his only three starts. Latest claimed solid third over 1400m in the Bendigo Guineas on April 1. Has been kept fresh for this and from barrier nine should have the speed to cross and find a nice position. Hard to hold out.
No12 SWORD OF LIGHT she scored a great win against her own age and sex here over 1600m on April 8. She gets top jockey Damian Lane back in the saddle but she does have the setback of facing a wide gate in 13. She is racing very well at four starts this campaign and rates highly.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 GREVISTE