Victoria has been engulfed by storms, rain, hail and snow so the track is going to be a quagmire.
The track is rated as a Heavy 10 at the moment with much of the State getting its April average rainfall in a single day.
The rail will be pushed out to 10 metres but further showers have ben forecast.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)
Skinny Play: 2,3,5 / 3,5 / 1,2,3 / 6,8,11
Wide Play: 2,3,4,5,8 / 1,2,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,4,6,8 / 2,5,6,7,8,11,13
BEST BET: R7 – 5. FAWAAREQ
Next Best Bet: R4 – 1. CHAS MARLON
Best Roughie: R9 – 13. BENALL
No1 ALMIGHTY MOSES looks to have found the opportunity to finally break the ice. Resumed with a solid third over 1100m in a maiden at Sale on April 18. Katelyn Mallyon keeps the ride and can end 20-start drought.
No7 THIEVING MINX has finished just behind the major place-getters at her two starts. Latest she ran fourth over 1426m at sale on a Heavy track on August 3. Ethan Brown’s 2kg claim sees her carry 54.5kg and has claims.
No3 CASTLEFIELD LASS won’t find a maiden much easier than this one. Last start ran fourth on a Heavy 10 at Moe over 1213m on July 24. She is now more mature and may show improvement.
No6 MA BELLA CHRISTA the expected heavy track conditions might play into her hands. She ran a fair ninth over 1200m against her own sex at Bairnsdale on April 1.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 CASTLEFIELD
No2 FUTURE IN DOUBT has shown ability and with Jordan Grob’s 2kg claim carries 56kg. Shown abundant speed to scream away to an eight-length win over 1190m at Cranbourne on a Heavy track on April 21. Looks the likely winner.
No1 ANTONIA is a lightly-race galloper who has shown good speed on rain-affected tracks at her warm up two 800m trials. She won her first heat over 800m and then ran second over 800m at Cranbourne on April 21.
No7 RADIANT ROUGE has looked promising at her two starts this campaign. Latest ran second over 1200m against her own sex in a maiden at Mornington on April 16. With Jordan Grob’s 2kg claim carries 55.5kg. Rates well.
No4 LADY DE BATHE winkers may improve her concentration. She ran fairly to finish fourth at her debut over 1000m in a fillies’ maiden here on April 7. She is from the top stable of Team Hayes and expect improvement.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 LADY DE BATHE
No2 LOKITIN kept on battling to the line and is on the quick back up. Last start ran third over 1200m in a maiden at Pakenham on April 23. Strikes a rain-affected track again here and will be fit in a mild maiden.
No1 JUSTICE HONOR was grinding away to finish fifth at his debut over 1200m in a maiden here on April 7. He gets a change of rider with Daniel Stackhouse the new pillion and would expect him to be improved.
No4 NURBURGRING has been placed at three of ten starts. Latest ran sixth over 1732m in a maiden at Sale on December 22. Has the blinkers going back on and can sprint well when fresh.
No8 BARLEY MO has yet to yield a win at 21 starts but has been placed six times. Latest ran a solid fourth over 1400m against her own sex at sale on April 18. She is race fit and with Ethan Brown’s 2kg claim carries 54.5kg.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 BARLEY MO
No1 CHAS MARLOW (NEXT BEST BET) showed plenty of fighting ability to run a close second at debut over 1000m in a 3yr maiden at Sony Creek on April 10. That was on a Heavy 8 and strikes a rain soaked track again here. Ethan Brown’s 2kg claim sees his weight reduced to 57kg and makes good appeal.
No7 UNSHACKLED was too far back at Sale but ran home well enough.
No8 IN A PANIC nicely bred type who looms as one of the main dangers.
No11 SNITZELWAY is by champion sire Snitzel and can go well fresh. Blinkers are off.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 SNITZELWAY
No3 ELLA she raced away to a 2 ¼ len win over 1600m against her own sex at Kilmore on April 13. She gets a decrease in weight here dropping 3kg to 57.5kg with regular hoop Brian Higgins to keep the ride in a field of seven.
No4 NEW GRADUATE drops 2kg on last start when finishing a sound third over 1600m against her own sex at Pakenham on April 13. She gets a riding change with Jye McNeil replacing Brad Rawiller.
No5 HENPECKER will strip fitter on her first-up seventh as a $4 favourite over 1400m at Pakenham on April 13. Ben Thompson is the new rider but he has no claim here and rides her at 56.5kg.
No1 DRY BISCUIT has a good record at this track. He ran a good fourth over 1717m at sale on April 18. He is race fit and will again be ridden by Matthew Allen. Jumps from gate two and gets a soft run.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 DRY BISCUIT
No2 MANDALAY BAY does get some relief with a drop in class. Fitter now on second-up ninth over 1300m at Bendigo on April18, Jamie Mott replaces Michael Dee and if repeats form of last campaign goes close.
No3 PAIGE’S BOY was given no quarter first-up when finishing sixth over 1200m at Pakenham on April 13. Gets a change of rider with Daniel Stackhouse replacing Michael Dee and will be fitter.
No4 BAREFOOT TYCOON won at his debut here before running fourth as a $4.20 favourite at his last start here on October 7. Gest top apprentice Ben Allen to ride but he has no claim here and would respect fresh.
No5 TIZSO WICKED showed she likes the rain soaked tracks with a smart win here over 1200m on April 21. She strikes another heavy track and she is on the same weight (59.5kg) as last week.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 MANDALAY BAY
No5 FAWAAREQ (BEST BET) was heavily backed last time and collected the major prize. She strikes her own sex here and looks hard to beat on her debut ½ length win in a 1200m maiden here on April 7. Michael Dee replaces Luke Nolen as the new rider and she does rise 3kg to 59kg, but she was impressive enough to repeat in this class.
No3 PATIENT posted a narrow win on a Heavy 89 here last Friday night. Respect.
No2 FOUR SISTERS is fresh off a 279-day break and has a good record first-up.
No1 LADY SKILLS was outgunned last time at Caulfield. Back in the right class.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 LADY SKILLS
No2 VAN BUREN BOY thrived on a Heavy 8 to run away to a ½ length win in a maiden at Stony Creek on April 10. Keeps Ben Allen as his pillion and does not strike a much tougher field here and faces another potential bog track.
No1 OLD FARM ROAD pay to forgive his last start when finishing ninth over 1200m at Pakenham on April 20. He did not have much luck and with apprentice Ethan Brown’s 2kg claim will carry 58kg. Can blaze back.
No3 HIGH CALL chased gamely enough when finished third over 1100m on a Heavy 8 at Stony Creek on April 8. He has the blinkers put back on here and has Brandon Stockdale to ride but he has no claim.
No6 SHADOWBROOK LASS gets a big relief in class here on last start ninth over 1200m at Ballarat on April 12. Apprentice Ben Thompson rides but has no claim and has been most honest.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 SHADOWBROOK LASS
No8 RAINDROPS ON ROSES has been ultra consistent and looks to get a winning chance here. Latest fought on strongly to go down in the shadows when third over 2400m at Bendigo on April 11. Cory Parish rides again.
No11 JAZAHAR was backed from $9.50 into $6.50 when scoring a clever win over 2200m on a Heavy 8 at Hamilton on April 21. Gets Jye McNeil to ride on this Darren Weir-trained stayer and respect.
No13 BENALL (BEST ROUGHIE) was a roughie at $41 when scored a good win over 2040m at Mornington on April 16. Craig Newitt comes to Cranbourne to ride again and drops a kilo to 55kg for the rise in class.
No6 SCRAPS put the writing on the wall with a strong third over 2200m at Ballarat on April 12. Gets Brian Higgins as the new rider and again carries 58kg. He will appreciate the rain affected ground.
VALUE RUNNER: No13 BENALL