Warrnambool (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Warrnambool. Today’s best bet is in race 3.
The track could be cut up quite a bit after a heavy program of ten races each day over three days racing on a Heavy 8.
The wider gates might be an advantage today for the last day of this carnival.
The false rail has been moved to four metres from the 1300m to the 300m but will remain at the true position for the rest of the course.
The weather s forecast to be fine but will be cool.
QUADDIES (races 7,8,9,10)
Skinny Play: 1,2,8,13 / 3,5,12 / 1,5,11 / 3,5,8,10
Wide Play: 1,2,3,4,7,8,11,12,13 / 1,2,3,5,7,9,10,12 / 1,3,5,7,11,12,13 . 3,5,6,8,10,13,14,15
BEST BET: R3 – 2. PLEIN CIEL
Next Best Bet: R9 – 1. LIKE THE CLAPPERS
Best Roughie: R10 – 13. GOD FORBID
R1 – 11.15am. Hammonds Paint Hurdle – 3200m.
No1 TRY FOUR looks a most promising jumper and gives trainer Darren Weir a dominant hand here with his other runner Waxing. Was warmed up for this with a 10th over 2425m at Caulfield on April 15.
Hard to beat.
No5 WAXING Ran a great race on the flat when he finished third over 2400m at Bendigo on April 19. He dominated a three-horse trial over the hurdles over 2500m on a Heavy 8 at Cranbourne on April 26. Danger.
No4 THE DOMINATOR has Victoria’s leading jumps rider Steve Pateman on board. Scored a brilliant two-length win over 3200m hurdle maiden at Pakenham on April 23. Drops a kilo to 67kg.
No6 BARGE AND CHARGE going very well over the jumps with a third placing at Oakbank before running second over 2592m on a heavy track at Murray Bridge on April 25. Drops 2.5kg to 65kg.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 THE DOMINATOR
R2 – 11.55pm. No Fuss Event 2yr Handicap – 1200m.
No2 BOLD MISSILE Is a son of Smart Missile who celebrated his first Group success last month in the WA Sires. He exhibited plenty of speed at a recent jump out at Caulfield and would rate highly.
No5 SAVAHEAT ran a fair trial when finishing fifth over 800m at Cranbourne on April 3. Has had a month’s further work at trainer Darren Weir’s stable and has his top country rider Dean Yendell to steer at debut.
No3 HECTA has been strong in the betting as there are no public trials to reveal any form. He has top jockey Craig Williams to ride and has drawn perfectly for his debut in five. Will wear winkers.
No4 MAIN STAGE showed he handled the heavy when running a close second over 800m on a heavy 8 in a trial at Cranbourne on April 21. He is out of a top Kiwi stable now based in Victoria and would respect.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 HECTA
R3 – 12.25pm. Mercedes Benz Handicap – 1400m.
No2 PLEIN CIEL (BEST BET) is a German galloper who is on the rampage with four straight wins last campaign. Latest he burst to the lead at the top of the straight to bound away to lead by two-lengths before tiring and holding on with a ¾-length margin over 1800m at Caulfield on January 7. Has been given a breather and gets top apprentice Ben Allen back in the saddle here.
No3 MOSS ‘N’ DALE loves the wet tracks and looms as the main danger here.
No5 FLORAL FEVER won most impressively first-up and does like the soft ground.
No7 ST SWITHUNS fantastic first-up win and will be fitter. She does like the wet tracks.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 FLORAL FEVER
R4 – 12.55pm. Fillies and Mares Handicap – 1400m.
No3 I’LL FLY AWAY is a very classy Irish bred mare who has made a big impression in Australia. She concluded her last campaign with a fifth at Moonee Valley over 2040m on December 9. She has three wins and a third at six starts.
No1 STYLISH MISS gives Darren Wear a strong hand with I’ll Fly Away also lining up. She is a mudlark and meets her own sex here. She was not suited last time at Sandown when running fifth on April 17. Strong chance.
No2 KANSAS SUNFLOWER was backed into a $3 favourite before rushing home to post a strong win over 1500m at Bendigo on April 19. Damian Lane rides again and she is on the same weight on 58kg.
No8 LADY EFFORT has been most competitive in easier races. She gets the bonus of ace jockey Craig Williams to steer here after finishing fifth over 1300m at Sandown on April 5. Can give a cheeky effort.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 KANSAS SUNFLOWER
R5 – 1.25pm. Ludeman Real Estate Handicap – 2000m.
No1 MARCKS MAHA took the wrong turn last start when was outgunned over 3400m at Sandown on April 5. Found the distance far too great and has been returned to his pet trip here and will be fresh to rebuild his fence pickets.
No7 FLO FO she was working home at the business end when was sandwiched between runners and finished eighth over 1600m at Stawell on April 16. With a clear passage here makes appeal.
No8 GOLD SPUR was at cricket score odds first-up but defied her long price to run a good fourth over 1600m at Stawell on April 16. Has a superior second-up record and has top junior Ben Allen to ride.
No3 CRAVEN IMAGE is capable of lifting here on last-start eighth over 2000m at Warrackanbeel on April 15. Has the Darren Weir polish for this race and top stable rider Brad Rawiller to steer.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 GOLD SPUR
R6 – 1.55m. The Standard Handicap – 1100m.
No4 ANOTHER DIAMOND gets the services of ace jockey Craig Williams first-up. She has a good record at this track and first-up. Last ran when running fifth over 955m at Moonee Valley on December 9.
No6 STAR STEALER loves this distance and has the in-form Damian Lane as his new pilot. Will relish the drop in grade on his 10th over 1100m at Caulfield on April 15 and has a superior draw in gate six.
No7 NIKITAS is one of three runners for premier trainer Darren Weir here. She has been transferred to Weir from Chris Waller in Sydney and is fresh after finishing sixth over 1600m at Hawkesbury in February.
No1 MARWOOD loves this track and has been reserved for this carnival. Not raced since running fifth over 1100m at Bendigo on April 1. Chris Caserta’s 1.5kg claim reduces his impost to 60kg.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 STAR STEALER
R7 – 2.35pm. Waterfront by Lyndoch Living Grand Annual Steeplechase – 5500m.
No8 SLOWPOKE RODRIGUEZ is from the stable of reigning champion Patrick Payne and is now primed to run a big race after his fourth over 2520m at Cranbourne on Heavy 8 on April 28.
No1 LORD OF THE SONG ran a great third in the Great Eastern Steeple (4956m) at Oakbank on April 17. Had a nice trial since then in preparation for this and looks back to his peak form. Loves the wet tracks.
No2 NO SONG NO SUPPER has been warmed up by Patrick Payne to defend his title here. Great winner last year and looks to be on top of his game for his title defense and looms as a top chance.
No4 LUCKY TONIGHT is a New Zealand stayer who showed his prowess over the jumps with a brilliant win in the Steeplechase (3200m) at Pakenham on April 23. He is primed for this race and expect a cheeky effort.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 NO SONG NO SUPPER
R8 – 3.15pm. Sungold Milk Warrnambool Cup – 2350m.
No3 HIGH CHURCH is the Werribee Cup winner chasing his second country Cup. He has been warming up for this grand final here and good effort to run fourth in the Easter Cup (2000m) at Caulfield on April 15. This looks good here.
No12 UNFURL was a great run when scored over 2400m at Bendigo on April 19. Dean Yendell rides this Darren Weir stayer, who drops a kilo to 54kg and has drawn gate two. Weir also saddles High Church and has a strong hand.
No1 OBSERVATIONAL has been in sensational form. Blitzed his rivals in the Easter Cup (2000m) at Caulfield on April 15. Has looked impressive at his past two wins over the middle distance and the sole query is the rise up to 2350m.
No5 ARALDO JUNIOR had no luck whatsoever when finishing last to Boom Time over 2425m at Caulfield on April 15. He had a bucket full of excuses and three horses from that race have since won. Keep safe.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 ARALDO JUNIOR
R9 – 3.55pm. Simons Waterfront Neville Wilson Series Final – 1700m
No1 LIKE THE CLAPPERS (NEXT BEST BET) has been backed in early markets from $12 into $8. Loves the wet tracks and will strip much fitter on his first-up fifth over 1300m at Bendigo on April 19. His record at this track is outstanding finishing four times in the money at five starts at The Bool. He gets ace jockey Damian Lane to ride and makes very strong appeal.
No11 LADY PROVOCATEUR drawn perfectly to repeat her last win here and makes a good case.
No5 MISS SHRIMPTON likes the wet tracks and has an excellent record of three wins at six starts.
No6 SAVVY BANDIT motored away from his opposition first up and will relish the extra ground.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 SAVVY BANDIT
R10 – 4.30pm. Scania Australia Handicap – 1300m
No5 BLACKTEIN looked impressive when she won here first-up before finishing sixth over 1200m at Sandown on April 17. Chris Caserta’s 1.5kg claim reduces her weight to 57kg and returning to this track is a bonus.
No13 GOD FORBID (BEST ROUGHIE) was given a spell after finishing last over 1600m at Ballarat on February 19. Will sport blinkers for his comeback to this track where he has netted two wins and a third at four starts. Loves the wet ground too.
No10 ROCKET ALONG was the $5 favourite when finishing second over 1200m at Ballarat on April 24. He is a three-year-old who is on the improve and has shown he can handle the wet ground. Respect.
No3 PAKAYA PRINCE found the winner too strong but did not surrender when finishing second over 1200m as a $3.40 favourite at Sale on April 18. That was first-up and off a good trial win. Would expect further improvement.
VALUE RUNNER: No13 GOD FORBID