Flemington (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Saturday. Today’s best bet is in race 5.
The false rail goes back to the True position after they raced at nine metres out on a rain soaked track here on ANZAC Day on April 25.
The track played most fair that day and looking forward to the woes of Newmarket Handicap day becoming an ill memory because of the strong bias.
The track is rated as a Good 4 after racing has been on rain affected tracks in Victoria over the past week because of last Thursday’s deluge.
So it will be a comfort to be back on top of the ground. There is some precipitation tipped but hopefully not much.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)
Skinny Play: 2,6 / 3,5,7,9, / 2,5,9 / 2,3,7,16
Wide Play: 2,5,6,9 / 1,3,4,5,7,9,10,11 / 2,3,5,9,10,15 / 1,2,3,7,8,12,16,17
BEST BET: R6 – 2. ZASORCEROSS
Next Best Bet: R8 – 2. MALIBU STYLE
Best Roughie: R7 – 7. GOOD THERAPY
R1 – 12.00pm. Chairman’s Club Handicap – 1800m.
No10 WAR LEGEND is now race fit and can continue to improve. Was a steady effort when finishing sixth in the Easter Cup (2000m) at Caulfield on April 15. Gets apprentice Jake Bayliss to ride here and with his 2kg claim drops to 52kg. Makes strong appeal with no weight on his back.
No6 SADAQA has been winning well and can slew his rivals again for a third time in a row. Latest won easily over 1800m here on April 25. Apprentice Chris Caserta again rides and his 3kg claim drops his weight to 52.5kg, which is 1.5kg than he carried to win here last time.
No8 SHOW A STAR won here over 1600m before finishing eighth over 1600m at Bendigo on April 1. Has been freshened and gets a new rider with Craig Newitt taking the reins. Has no weight on 54kg and has a great barrier in four to gain a soft run here.
No4 HAZZABEEL Was having his third start this campaign when stepping up to 1600m and finishing a steady sixth at Caulfield on April 15. Gets senior jockey Michael Dee replacing apprentice Ben Thompson and carries a similar weight on 57kg. Looms with each-way claims here.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 HAZZABEEL
R2 – 12.35pm. Vintage Crop Handicap – 2800m.
No3 DE LITTLE ENGINE after splitting Boom Time and Hans Holbein at his last start over 2425m at Caulfield on April 15, he looks to get his chance to break back into the winner’s circle. Both those other two horses have endorsed that form and he carries 55kg with apprentice Ben Thompson’s 1.5kg claim.
No5 REFECTORY was bound for the jumps at Warrnambool this week but the stable had a change of heart after his grinding win in the Marathon Series Final (4000m) at Caulfield on April 22. Michael Dee replaces Damien Oliver and the Irish import drops 3kg to 54kg. Each-way chances.
No4 LUCQUES co-trainers have removed the blinkers after his second over 2500m at Flemington on April 25. Damian Lane is replaced by Chris Symons but he should get the perfect seat on the pace from his gate in seven. No Hans Holbein in this race and looms as a good chance.
No2 MUJADALE appears to be back near his best after his strong win in the Stawell Cup (2000m) on April 13. Jack Hill keeps the ride and he drops 1.5kg to 57kg for his trip to the city. Has won twice at three starts over this distance so the trip is no issue.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 REFECTORY
R3 – 1.10pm. Phar Lap Club Plate – 1100m.
No1 FREEZE OVER showed arrogance to win at debut at Sandown and did have excuses when taken to Morphettville where did charge home but was swamped on the line finishing fifth over 1050m on April 8. Gets a new rider with Craig Newitt taking the reins and can bounce back down the straight.
No3 HOT GIRL WANTED she ran very well to finish fourth over 1050m at Morphettville at her last start on March 4. Trainer Nick Ryan gave her a trial at Cranbourne where she ran sixth on a quagmire so would forget she went around. She has drawn the inside here in four down the straight.
No13 RIVER JEWEL is a daughter of leading juvenile sire Snitzel and showed no pace early but burnt the turf late in a jump out at Flemington recently in preparation for her debut here. She is from Victoria’s premier two-year-old yard and has leading apprentice Beau Mertens to steer from gate five. Respect.
No2 I’LL HAVE A BIT showed she was primed for this with a very good win in an 800m trial at Cranbourne on April 24. She handled the soggy track easily that time and gets leading apprentice Ben Thompson to ride at her return. She has been on the money at her two starts so far.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 HOT GIRL WANTED
R4 – 1.50pm. Comedy King Handicap – 1400m.
No10 PURE PRIDE she was on a bad part of the track on the fence when she finished 14 in the Group 1 Coolmore Legacy (1600m) for mares at Randwick on April 8. She gets top apprentice Beau Mertens to ride and his 1.5kg claim drops her weight to 53.5kg. There is plenty to like about her.
No8 INSPECTOR is a seasoned sprinter who can rise here after striking a bog track when finishing ninth down the straight 1200m here on April 25. With Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg claim his impost diminishes to 53.5kg. He has been competing in Group 1 at this course this autumn so worth thinking about.
No5 HERE TO THERE was sent to Adelaide where he collected the money with a clever win over 1400m at Morphettville on April 1. He gets Ben Thompson to ride here and his 1.5kg allowance decreases his weight to 55.5kg. He is from an in-form stable and will be competitive.
No2 TSHAHITSI is a former Tasmanian galloper who is bound to be improved on his first-up fifth over 1200m at Caulfield on April 15. He gets Brois Thornton’s 3kg claim to reduce his impost to a comfortable 56.5kg here. The query is how well he handles the racing down the straight here.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 TSHAHITSI
R5 – 2.30pm. Indian Summer Handicap – 1200m.
No2 OVERSTEP was not suited last start when the day did not favour swoopers, finishing fifth over 1100m against her own sex and age at Caulfield on April 15. Trainer Chris Waller has booked Craig Newitt to ride and she does love the short-course and can repay her backers.
No7 DIVINE QUALITY posted a brazen debut win against her own sex and age in a maiden at Bendigo on April 19. She blasted her opposition by three-lengths that day for jockey Brad Rawiller. She gets apprentice Beau Mertens here and his 1.5kg claim sees her on 54.5kg and a live chance again.
No9 FONT MAGICA has impeccable form at two starts with a second and a win. She broke the ice stylishly against her own sex and age in a maiden at Cranbourne on April 21. She has apprentice Ben Thompson to ride down the straight 1200m here and his 1.5 claim reduces her weight to 54kg.
No11 SALLYBROOK she has been a model of consistency and posted a stirring win against her own sex, including older mares in an 1100m maiden on a Heavy 8 at Cranbourne on April 22. She meets some smart fillies here but has the claim of apprentice Ben Allen and will carry 54kg.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 SALLY BROOK
R6 – 3.10pm. TAB/ATA Celebrate Women Trainers Handicap – 2000m.
No2 ZASORCERESS (BEST BET) has the ability to continue trainer Darren Weir foray this week at The Bool here. With apprentice Ben Allen’s 1.5kg claim she is to carry 57.5kg and will relish the return to a dryer track after running fourth over 1800m here on April 25 on a Soft 7. She was backed that day from $6 into $4.80 and she is against her own sex here.
No9 SAVANNAH MOON will enjoy being stretched out to this trip. Looks ready to fire.
No7 POWDERWORKS gives Darren Weir a strong hand here and she will be in the finish.
No6 HOT RUBY is as honest as the day is long. Bound to be competitive again.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 POWDER WORKS
R7 – 3.50pm. Primacy Handicap – 1400m.
No7 GOOD THERAPY (BEST ROUGHIE) blazed away to an emphatic four-length win in the provincials three starts ago. Latest fought hard to post a narrow win over 1200m at Pakenham on April 27. Daniel Stackhouse keeps the ride and he drops 2.5kg to 56kg for his rise in class. Is drawn to get a soft passage in three.
No9 JUST HIFALUTIN has shown good ability at three starts for two wins. Latest gave a solid effort to run fifth over 1400m at Caulfield on April 15. Gets a new rider with leading apprentice Beau Mertens booked and his 1.5kg claim reduces her handicap to 53kg. She makes good appeal.
No3 WIDGEE TURF won a trial before finishing a closing fifth over 1200m at Caulfield first up on April 29. Had no luck that time when being held up in traffic and with a clear passage from gate six he could make his presence felt here. Expect improvement.
No5 GREVISTE struck a strong field when finishing on the heels of the major place getters in sixth over 1600m at Caulfield on April 22. Has scored two impressive wins in a row in the country at his prior two starts and drops 1.5kg to 56.5kg and jumps from gate four here. Lot to like.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 GOOD THERAPY
R8 – 4.25pm. Sports Handicap – 1000m.
No2 MALIBU STYLE (NEXT BEST BET) coasted to an imposing first Melbourne win in the Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield on April 22. The Western Australian-trained sprinter has stable jockey Steven Parnham to ride again for his first time down the straight at Flemington. He powered away to win by 2¼-lengths last time and can repeat the dose.
No5 CRYSTAL DREAMER makes strong appeal as the likely danger on his third in the Bel Esprit.
No9 O’MALLEY is unbeaten on this course and will be improved on first-up run in Bel Esprit.
No15 NASDEX form on the provincial tracks is impeccable and is from a top stable. Respect.
VALUE RUNNER: No15 NASDEX
R9 – 5.00pm. True Version Handicap – 1600m.
No16 STORMSABREWING she has been racing well and with Beau Mertens’ 1.5kg claim will carry 52.5kg here. Latest ran a good second over 1400m at Sandown on April 17 and can go on with the job here despite an awkward draw in 16. This is a wide open race to end the day.
No2 GRAND DREAMER showed his opposition how to run on a bog when dashing away to a three-length win on a Heavy 8 at Randwick as a $2.70 favourite on April 22. Likes this trip the sole negative is the barrier jumping from gate 16. This is a deep race and would advise to tread carefully.
No7 STEGGLER has an excellent record of two wins and three placings from nine starts. He will have the magic of Darren Weir here and has stable jockey Brad Rawiller at the helm to assist from gate eight. The Irish bred import will be fitter second-up on his second at Ballarat on April 12.
No5 AMARELA gave a good effort against her own sex to run second over 1600m here on April 25. That was on a bog track and should strike a drier track here. With Ben Allen’s 1.5kg claim she will carry 56.5kg and should be competitive in a very tough race.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 STEGGLER