Rosehill for the main Sydney meeting of the weekend and what a card it is, big juicy fields with some horses who have been held back from the carnival ready to show their wears! Some of these with good performances could well be QLD bound as they aren’t far from kicking off. Rail true and track good (YES track Good!)
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 2,9,11 – 5,7,11 – 11,12 – 4,14
Wide Play: 2,3,4,9,11,15 – 1,4,5,7,8,11 – 3,11,12 – 2,4,11,14
BEST BET: R3 – 3. OKLAHOMA GIRL
Next Best Bet: R5 – 9. CANNYESCENT
Best Roughie: R4 – 9. KITTEAU
No5 IPSO FACTO resumes here after a solid first prep where he mixed with some better horses. He has trialled really well coming in and always looked as if he would improve into a second preparation. The claim for King suits.
No9 POETIC CHARMER has trialled in imposing fashion coming into this. The two trials this time in have pointed to a good debut run. The last trial over 1000m was most impressive and I like horses who have had that 1000m hit out before a debut run.
No14 ENVY OF ALL should be improved for the debut run where she was sent out a well backed favourite. Staying at the 1100m here suits and she should be much more improved as she was only coming off a 740m trial.
No13 BLONDE INTUITION looks to lead them up again here and should do the same as she did on debut when running them ragged. The trial between runs was quite good and she should be respected coming into a second start.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 IPSO FACTO
No2 ATLANTIC SENTINEL was good last start in a similar race at Randwick. He came from well off them, on a day which didn’t suit back markers. He gets Adkins with the claim down to 56kgs and from gate 6, I am hoping that he pushes forward.
No4 VISCOUNT LAD ran right through the line last start when winning at Bathurst. That was quite a weak race and this isn’t much stronger than that. The claim down to 55kgs suits him here and he gets a chance.
No5 RUNNING BROKE brings the provincial championships team together in Clark and Courtney, the win at Canberra two back was quite good and he looked a little flat last start. I am willing to forgive that run and go off the prior win and give him a chance.
No8 LUNAR DUCHESS was a month between runs when just beaten last start. She should be well improved for that and she has placed in a highway race in the past and that has to give some confidence.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 VISCOUNT LAD
No3 OKLAHOMA GIRL (BEST BET) just got there last start over the 1600m at Randwick. I love the immediate step up to 1800m. She looks to be a QLD Oaks filly for sure. She sat last in a slowly run race last start and from the gate she can sit a little closer in the run, and Tommy just needs clear room from the top of the straight to win this.
No8 TRAVANCORE was good when getting the soft kill at Canberra. Before that he was quite good in the South Pacific. Up to 1800m suits here.
No5 TUMULTUOUS broke through for a long overdue win last start. The step to 1800m now shall suit as he only hit his straps late there.
No2 BLACK ON GOLD was flat second-up after a booming fresh win. The step to 1800m here now suits and he should improve.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 TRAVANCORE
No9 KITTEAU (BEST ROUGHIE) should be ready to go now third-up from a spell after being touched off in two runs this time in. J Pride with a horse who gets blinkers on third-up from a spell usually improves out of sight and this is a horse who may well explode.
No11 POUND STIRLING could well be flat after his last-start run which was brutally run. He drops 4kgs off the second-up run and I’m banking on Waller’s ability to get his best out of his horses on the day and his first run at home here looks to be the one.
No7 MILITARY MACHINE has a tough gate to contend with here and may well push forward to be proactive from the gate. He has turned the corner this time in with two good wins from as many starts. If he gets a soft time in front again, he is hard to run down.
No6 MERCURIAL LAD has to step up again here, but has done so with each of his last three wins. He has got his confidence up now and will keep toughing it out for you. He looks to have finally figured the game out and that can only help him.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 KITTEAU
No9 CANNYESCENT (NEXT BEST BET) looks primed to breakthrough at Sydney level here after an unlucky run last start where Bowman looked to fall asleep on him? The step up to 1350m is perfect as he has always looked like a 1400m horse in the past. There is a lot of question marks on many of this lot and he is the standout of them.
No6 BELIEVE was good enough first-up off a long break and could well improve now that she gets out in distance.
No7 CARELESS was good enough first-up. He should find this race much easier and improve for the run.
No8 ROARING TO WIN just got there last start and I have a question on the strength of that race which is why I am inclined to risk him
VALUE RUNNER: No7 CARELESS
No7 NEW TIPPERARY finally gets away from heavy going here and gets back to better ground now. He looks to have found his right race here. He wasn’t too far off them in the Doncaster / Ajax / JRA Plate and that looks to be the right form here.
No8 JESSY BELLE backs up here and has done so in the past with good success. Her last two runs have been in super-hot races and she looks to have found a race in which she could strike back in.
No11 HAPPY HANNAH is starting to become the scourge of the punters now, she hasn’t won for 15 months and has started well in the market in most runs. Back onto drying ground now suits her, as her record is much better on that and now that she has had the run over 2000m she could improve.
No5 ASTRONOMOS looks to have found his level. He has wound up to go past them in his last two when having everything to suit and hasn’t just gone past them. He comes back a touch in grade now and has his chance.
No4 TOP OF MY LIST won well last start and could well go on with it here. Clark took her right to the front there and didn’t give them a chance. I expect the tactics to be the same here.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 HAPPY HANNAH
No2 DREAMFORCE just couldn’t go through the wet ground last start. Put a line through that run as he didn’t handle it. I am not sure how he was beaten. Back on a dry deck here suits and he should be hard to beat.
No9 TOP RAVINE was good enough last start after a year off and should well improve off that run. He has a good enough second-up record and gets a good claim down to 55kgs and has his chance.
No11 LA COURBETTE has been average in her trials so far, but has good enough form from Europe. She may well be a raceday performer. Gets a host of gear changes here and could well explode.
No15 OUR BEATNIK found his form last start and ran right through the line there. The bigger field suits here and if he can get the cuddle run here, he could sprint away as we saw last prep.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 TOP RAVINE
No11 TORPENHOW resumes here and has had two quiet enough trials coming into this and could well be a winter star looking at his profile. He was behind Fabrizio and Denpurr last preparation. That is legitimate group class form. He starts with 55.5kgs here and looks hard to beat.
No12 BALMAIN BOY is back to torment us, he started no lower than $6 and apart from his last start he was always in the top four. He resumes with no trial and draws barrier 1 and looks to get a super soft run. He has to be in all exotics as I am wary of what Bridge and Clark are up to.
No3 UNTAMED DIAMOND got the job done for us last start at a good price and gets good weight relief here. She handles all types of going and is as tough as they come. I loved the way she knuckled down last start to get the job done and now she’s had that win she could spring board.
No1 SWEET SERENDIPITY got the job done in good fashion last start. First out first home. This race looks much tougher than that and he goes up 7kgs for that and he is a chance, but that’s a big jump up.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 BALMAIN BOY
No4 BONNY O’REILLY has trialled up quite well here and comes back to the track off a successful preparation where she won her last two. I like that she starts at Rosehill here as she needs time to wind up, and from gate 3 she has her chance.
No14 IN TIMES OF WAR will be able to sit off them as was the intention last start before he pinged the lids and landed two lengths in front. He may well be able to explode when ridden with a sit. He is up in grade here. But is down in weight with Avdulla on board.
No11 ROEINDA comes here off the back of two trials and although she wasn’t able to win last preparation she was thereabouts in some good form races. She looks to have come back in good order.
No2 MACHINEGUN JUBS is back from a trial here and was a failure in the provincial championships. But looked to put his foot in a hole there. Forget that completely and go off previous form and he has his chance here.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 ROEINDA