Pakenham (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Pakenham. Today’s best bet is in race 7.
This is the third night meeting to race on the synthetic track at Pakenham this autumn.
There are a handful of track specialists racing here, but this program is one hell of a test for any punter.
The fields are very average and punters should use the betting as their weather gauge in a tough card of four maidens and low-grade handicaps.
The rail is in the true position and the weather forecast is to be overcast and cool.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 2,6 / 8,9 / 6,7 / 4,9,11
Wide Play: 2,4,6,8 / 3,4,8,9,13 / 2,3,5,6,7,10 / 1,4,5,9,11,12,14
BEST BET: R7 – 6. EMOJI
Next Best Bet: R8 – 4. DOWNHEARTED
Best Roughie: R4 – 7. ROYAL ORDER
R1 – 6.00pm. Racing.com 2yr Maiden – 1200m.
No6 MR HAGLER Has shown speed at earlier jump-outs and is well worth keeping in mind here. Some of these have been trying out on bog tracks so it is hard to get a handle on how they will handle the synthetic track for the first time.
No10 NO DOUBT MA’AM she is a daughter of leading stallion Not A Single Doubt and was a $140,000 Easter sales graduate. She is from one of the State’s leading juvenile nurseries and came home well at a recent jump out at Caulfield.
No5 KEYSOR was a $300,000 Premier sale graduate and is a stable-mate to No Doubt Ma’am. Trainer Mick Price will have him fully wound for this with a jump-out win at Caulfield and is drawn in gate two to be right on the pace.
No16 PERUGGIA was backed from $9.50 into $7 at third start but had no luck in running when finishing fourth over 1200m here on April 20. Has race experience over the majority of these and that can count. Respect.
VALUE RUNNER: No16 PERUGGIA
R2 – 6.30pm. Polytrack Maiden – 1100m.
No9 NATIONAL VELVET with a name like National Velvet will have all eyes upon. Did speed around swiftly at a recent jump-out at Flemington on May 5 and is draw to utilize pace in gate two.
No10 PARIS was involved in a cluster of a finish when running second over 1200m at her second start at Colac on December 17. The blinkers are pulled off and she has had no jump outs but the stable is hot.
No6 TATTOO YOU has the blinkers removed and ran okay on a heavy track when finishing sixth in a 1000m 3yr maiden at Cranbourne on April 28. He has race experience and gets senior rider Aaron Lynch replacing apprentice Mitchell Aitken.
No5 STRATEGIC SPIN struck a bog track first-up when finishing seventh over 1000m in a 3yr maiden at Cranbourne on April 28. Pay to give another chance with a favourable draw on the rail here.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 STRATEGIC SPIN
R3 – 7.00pm. Schweppes Maiden – 1600m.
No3 TELL THE TRUTH was easy in the market before finishing a game second to the Life Of Waldo in a 3yr maiden over 1600m here on April 27. Chased hard all of the way and has a superior alley in four today after crossing from 10 last start.
No1 DANGER IN DEVON did not go too straight but did try hard when finishing third over 1600m in a 3yr maiden here on April 27. Strikes Tell The Truth again here and the two can battle out the finish of this maiden.
No6 FONTEIN ALI gave a good effort to run second in a F&M maiden over 1400m here on April 27. She has been consistent of late and with three starts under her belt should be at her prime for this maiden. Looks a danger.
No5 DANCING HUSSY Has a good fresh record finishing third at debut. At second start ran fifth over 1600m in a F&M maiden at Moe on January 16. She has done enough to warrant in this field despite her alley in 10.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 DANCING HUSSY
R4 – 7.30pm. Flemington Nursery Maiden – 1400m.
No9 IHEARTPOPPY resumed from a long spell to run a strong fourth over 1200m in a maiden at Geelong on April 30. Gets a change of rider with Noel Callow replacing Regan Bayliss and makes appeal with extra fitness on side.
No12 AMERICAN GENIUS Won a gate trial before running a strong third over 1200m in a maiden at Ballarat on April 24. Has been placed at all four of his starts. The downside is he is still a two-year-old against older horses. That is the query.
No5 NATHAN ROAD Has the blinkers coming off and ran a solid third over 1600m in a maiden here on April 23. Gets a change of rider with Jamie Mott replacing Daniel Stackhouse. Has claims.
No7 ROYAL ORDER (BEST ROUGHIE) Chased home the winner in good style and without being punished when finishing third in a 990m trial at Cranbourne last spring. His wide alley in 16 is a setback but he is from an astute stable and would play very safe.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 ROYAL ORDER
R5 – 8.00pm. Wise Choice Handicap – 2200m.
No6 RAINDROPS ON ROSES kept on ploughing through the mud to run a steady third over 2250m at Cranbourne on a bog track on April 27. Is rock hard having sustained a long campaign and does not meet match opposition here. Gets her chance to win.
No3 LOFOTEN ROAD struck a bog track when running fourth over 2050m at Moe on April 25. Had won his maiden at Yarra Valley over 1950m brilliantly and he does not strike a strong field here on the synthetic track. Like as a danger.
No2 STREET HEAT Has won at two of his past four starts over 2000m. He looks to make a sound case here with a hard hitting fourth over 2020m at Cranbourne over 2060m on a bog track on April 21. He is lightly-raced and racing in top stead.
No8 GRAN TRYPHENA the blinkers come off her after she failed to flatter at Sandown when finishing 14th of 16 over 2100m on April 17. That was against stronger opposition and her prior form had merit and would give one more chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 GRAN TRYPHENA
R6 – 8.30pm. Garfield Footy and Netball Handicap – 1600m.
No8 JUNIOR BURGER was unwanted in the betting easing out to $11 before running a steady fourth over 1400m here on April 27. Gets a change of rider with Michael Dee the new pillion and would expect sharp improvement.
No9 HUSSOR gave his backers a good show when fighting hard to run second over 1600m here on April 27. That was a very good effort despite laying in and he is drawn well (5) again to be prominent.
No7 CHIMA was backed into $8.50 before battling away well to finish second over 1500m at Geelong on April 30. Top jockey Regan Bayliss rides again and he has been a model of consistency at this level and would respect.
No2 MOMENTARY has been placed at three of past five starts. Latest was a $3.80 favourite when finishing sixth over 2100m at Stony Creek on April 10. Form on the provincial tracks is rock solid and has each-way claims.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 CHIMA
R7 – 9.00pm. IGA Handicap – 1200m.
No6 EMOJI (BEST BET) really trialled well over 800m at Cranbourne when running third on April 21. Gets Victoria’s leading apprentice Beau Mertens to ride first-up and has a fabulous record of two wins at three starts at this track. He has drawn perfectly in gate two to get a soft passage through-out and appeals on a night where best bets are as hard to find as a needle in a haystack.
No5 CHAPEL ROAD is fit now with two runs under the hood and can be running home strongly.
No10 INVINCIBLE JOY fought tooth-and-nail to win here last start and must be a threat again.
No2 HEZA DUDE with a tongue-tie on for the first time could do the trick.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 HEZA DUDE
R8 – 9.30pm. Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap – 1400m.
No4 DOWNHEARTED (NEXT BEST BET) has been most reliable being placed at three of his past four starts and he strikes a very moderate bunch here. Fought on well to run third over 1400m at Sandown last start on April 17. With apprentice Jordan Grob’s 2kg claim will carry a comfortable 58.5kg and absolutely loves this track two wins and a second at four starts.
No1 CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL she has a fantastic record on this track and ignore her first-up effort.
No11 MUCCINO is the Mr Reliable and is sure to give his backers a good run for their bucks.
No9 MURPHY had no luck last start and he does enjoy racing on the synthetic track.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 MURPHY