Flemington (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Saturday. Today’s best bet is in race 6.
Saturday is going to be very cold with a maximum forecast to be 12C after a minimum of 8C.
There are a few showers tipped for the day but at this stage the track is expected to play well at a rating as a Good 4.
This is the first meeting back at Flemington after having last raced here on June 10 when there were some upset results.
The rail will be stretched out to nine metres, but it is a spacious track with a very long straight.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)
Skinny Play: 14,15 – 6,7 – 2 – 2,3
Wide Play: 3,6,7,14,15 – 1,5,6,7 – 2,6,9 – 1,2,3,4,10
BEST BET: R6 – 15. ABILITY
Next Best Bet: R8 – 2. TSHAHITSI
Best Roughie: R5 – 11. CINNAMON CARTER
R1 – 11.40am. Gippsland Region Handicap – 1400m.
No2 ROYAL SYMPHONY smashed his rivals by over 3 lengths at his debut in a 1200m maiden at Pakenham on May 25. Gets top jockey Dwayne Dunn to ride again but does rise a kilo to 59kg. The step up to 1400m should not be an issue and commands respect here on wide track.
No3 EGYPTIAN BULLET is chasing a hat-trick here after two impressive wins at Wangaratta and Pakenham over 1000m and 1200m. She steps up to 1400m here but has had the conditioning to be ready for the rise in distance. The inform Daniel Stackhouse retains the ride.
No13 ANCHOR BID was plunged from $10 into $6.50 before finishing third in a 1200m maiden at Ballarat on June 4. The daughter of High Chaparral will relish her rise in distance to 1400m and with leading apprentice Ben Allen’s 1.5kg claim will carry just 54.5kg. Makes appeal.
No6 AMSCHEL ran a good second-up third over 1100m in a maiden at Geelong on June 2. The colt was specked from $19 into $15 last start. He gets ace jockey Craig Williams to ride and is from Victoria’s top juvenile yard in Team Hayes. Has drawn perfectly in gate seven and would keep safe.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 AMSCHEL
R2 – 12.15pm. Barwon South Quest Region Handicap – 1100m.
No1 ASHLOR scored a brilliant win over 1200m at Morphettville on May 12. He does go up a bit of weight here after carrying 54kg last start. He is lumped on 59.5kg with apprentice Jordan Child’s 1.5kg claim here. He is a talented three-year-old with plenty of upside still and looks a good chance.
No4 INVINCIBLE AL the stock of I Am Invincible is running red hot. This bloke was one of his recent plethora of winners over 1000m at Flemington on June 10. He streeted his rivals that day when he was suited by the fast pace up front. If they go a good clip again, he will be charging home again.
No8 WILDE GEM with apprentice Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg will carry just 51kg. He has yet to blotch his record with two smart provincial wins at two starts. Latest he scored a fighting win over 1000m at Mornington on June 12. Looks value here and would not dismiss.
No2 KEN’S DREAM was most unlucky last start when was blocked for a clear run before finishing fifth over 1200m at Moonee Valley on June 3. He is better suited here on the wider track and with leading apprentice Ben Allen’s 1.5kg claim will carry 59.5kg. He will have the Darren Weir polish too.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 WILDE GEM
R3 – 12.50pm. Lodden Mallee Region Handicap – 1400m.
No2 VITAL IMPORTANCE has Chris Parnham returning to his former happy hunting grounds to ride after he returned home to WA last year. She is far better suited here on the spacious track than last start when finished ninth over 1200m at Moonee Valley on June 3. She looks value at $12.
No7 WINE TALES returns to Flemington after a campaign in Sydney. Last start ran sixth on a bog track over 1400m at Randwick on June 10. Trainer Chris Waller has booked top jockey Dwayne Dunn to ride here and she has an excellent second-up record of a win and three placings at six attempts.
No10 JACQUI’S JOY was returning from a 24-day break when finished fifth over 1400m at Sandown on June 14. She gets Michael Dee replacing a 3kg apprentice and she plummets 4.5kg to 54kg for her clash here. She was backed from $21 into $14 last start and would watch market again here.
No8 MAMZELLE TESS is an ultra-consistent mare and will be right in the finish again here. Last start ran a close second to Stylish Miss over 1600m at Moonee Valley on June 17. She is on a quick back up but she drops a kilo to 54kg here and keeps Jye McNeil on top.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 VITAL IMPORTANCE
R4 – 1.28pm. Grampians Region Handicap – 2000m.
No5 SAYED did a great job to post a smart win over 2100m at Sandown last start on June 7. He is trained by leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller and he should only improve further after his first run anti-clockwise. Master rider Craig Williams rides but he is up 2.5kg to 59kg here.
No10 PORTION CONTROL looks ready for this after two runs over the metric mile. Latest he ran on well to finish fourth over 1800m here on June 10. With apprentice Jake Bayliss’ 2kg claim will only carry 54.5kg and is drawn to be prominent in gate six. Rates as a strong chance.
No1 DUKE OF ELLINGTON is a rock hard galloper who could play a role in the conclusion here. Last start he ran a solid fifth over 2000m at Caulfield on May 13. He is coming back off a 42-day break but the stable is on fire and he gets top apprentice Ben Thompson’s 1.5kg claim reducing his weight to 59kg.
No4 ENCOSTA LINE gets top Melbourne hoop Damien Oliver to ride for leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller. He looks primed for this with a series of runs over the metric mile and a drop in class on strong finishing fifth his over 1800m here on June 10. Should be at nice odds.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 ENCOSTA LINE
R5 – 2.05pm. North East Region Handicap – 2520m.
No8 BULLISH STOCK scored a fighting win over 1800m here last start on June 10. With apprentice Jake Bayliss’ 2kg claim will carry 53kg, which is only 2kg more than he did last time. He looks suited at the weights and this is only his third start from a spell. Can keep going.
No4 COUGAR EXPRESS is the reigning Kalgoorlie Cup winner who ran a fair fourth over 2040m at Moonee Valley on June 6. He has had a trial since at Warrnambool, which he won over 2800m on a bog track on June 9. He gets top jockey Damien Oliver as his new pillion.
No7 SHAKOPEE scored a great win over 2400m at Sandown at his last start on June 14. He was backed from $14 into $10 that time and he will lack nothing in horsemanship with Noel Callow as his new partner. This foreign import looks set now to make his mark.
No11 CINNAMON CARTER (BEST ROUGHIE) is rock hard now with four starts under her belt. She ran a working-like over 2500m here on June 10. She gets Michael Dee to ride and has no weight on the 54kg minimum. Will stay all day and looks to be an outside chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 CINAMON CARTER
R6 – 2.45pm. 2017 Country Achiever Gerald Egan Handicap – 1100m.
No15 ABILITY (BEST BET) looked super imposing to win over 1000m at Moonee Valley last start on June 6. Ace jockey Craig Williams stays on board and he now gets his chance down the straight at Flemington with a middle draw in eight. He will strip fitter on his first-up win and has improvement left in him. He has an excellent second-up record of three starts for two wins and a second.
No3 HUSSON EAGLE has a good record at this track and he will be one of the main fancies.
No8 ROUGH JUSTICE is most reliable but his winning strike-rate is a bit low.
No14 LORD VON COSTA loves this track and expect him to go well on the limit on 54kg.
VALUE RUNNER: No14 LORD VON COSTA
R7 – 3.25pm. David Bourke Provincial Handicap – 1600m.
No6 REWARDING EFFORT with two runs at this track under his belt and stepping up in distance here looks primed to show. Latest ran a solid eighth over 1400m here on June 10. He gets top jockey Craig Williams to partner here and has a tongue-tie fitted again. He gets a soft run from gate four.
No7 HOT RUBY won a 1400m trial in good style at Pakenham on June 19. She has been placed three times at six starts first up and she has an excellent record at this track of two starts for one win. She has no weight on the limit on 54kg and has top junior Beau Mertens to ride.
SCRATCHED No1 VICTORY DOWNS strode away to a brilliant win over 1600m in the Swan Hill Cup on June 11. Ace jockey Dwayne Dunn gets the ride at his venture to the city here, but he is loaded with a big weight on 60kg. He is back to his best and respect.
No11 ZAGAYA He gets his chance here after a sound run over 1600m at Ballarat on June 15. He has been placed in the money at his past four starts (winning twice) in the country and gets experienced jockey Daniel Moor to ride him at his Flemington debut. Keep in mind.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 ZAGAYA
R8 – 4.05pm. Brian Beattie Handicap – 1400m.
No2 TSHAHITSI (NEXT BEST BET) is chasing a third straight win here. Tasmanian galloper who has thrived in Victoria and blazed his opposition with a 3¼ length win over 1400m here on June 10. Brendon McCoul keeps the ride on the five-year-old who does face a weight increase of 3.5kg for his last win. But he did toy with them last time and can repeat here.
No6 LOYALTY MAN ran very well fresh and he has a great second-up record to boot.
No10 INVINZABEEL gets top jockey Craig Williams to steer here after coming from Sydney.
No9 CANNYESCENT chasing a fourth win from his past five starts. Very honest type.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 LOYALTY MAN
R9 – 4.38pm. Bay and Ranges Region Handicap – 1600m.
No3 SAMOVARE ran a cracking second at her Melbourne debut over 1400m here on June 10. She is bound to be fitter and gets top jockey Damien Oliver to steer again. She won the Group 3 Champion Fillies Stakes (1600m) in Perth and is perfectly drawn in five here.
No2 WIDGEE TURF was a brilliant 2 length winner at his last start over 1400m at Sandown on May 27. With top apprentice Ben Allen’s claim he will carry 57kg here and from barrier five he should get a soft run. He did have an 1100m trial in preparation for this finishing second on June 13.
No10 THE PASSAGE will sport blinkers for the first time. He ran a solid second over 1600m at Moonee Valley on June3. That stands him in good stead for this and he has won twice and finishing in the placings twice at his six starts so he is ultra-reliable. Keep safe here.
SCRATCHED No13 FACTS beat the older mares two starts ago at Seymour over 1200m on May 23. Latest she ran a strong fourth over 1400m against her own age and sex here on June 10. That was her first start at this track and she will benefit from the effort. She has won twice at her four starts.
VALUE RUNNER: No13 FACTS