Rosehill (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Rosehill. Today’s best bet is in race 8
Rosehill for our Saturday meeting in New South Wales. Nine races on the card in what looks to be a very good off season meeting. All the big boys are back form the QLD sojourn and it’s good to see. Can Bowman make a late dash at the title with Avdulla starting to stutter? For a best bet, I’ve settled on Sir Plush in race 8. He smashed them fresh and could well do the same here.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 4,6 - 1,2,8 - 10 - 7
Wide Play: 1,2,3,4,6 - 1,2,6,7,8,11 - 9,10,11 - 4,6,7
BEST BET: R8 – 10. SIR PLUSH
Next Best Bet: R9 – 7. CARZOFF
Best Roughie: R4 – 13. IT’S A LOTTERY
R1 – 11.25am. Pro Rata ATC Membership On Sale Handicap - 1400m.
SCRATCHED No1 COLESBERG looks to be the one here resuming from a spell after two trials coming in. He is on his home track and has been doing a good job at the trials. The 1400m kickoff is a great start for him. He looks to be a Derby horse in the making and he will be running through the line best of them here.
No3 HELIOSPHERE comes back in distance here, which is a slight knock for mine. He looks to be a Derby horse too and coming back from 1600m is a worry. He did a lot wrong when getting the job done from in front last start and comes out of a brilliant form race pervious to that.
No5 MAD PIRATE gets blinkers on for the second-up run and wasn’t too bad on debut at Bathurst. He is bred to run 2000+ and ran through the line quite well over the 1100m. The claim for Adkins helps and the blinkers sharpen him up for this.
No8 VICTORY IN PARIS was a good winner at Kembla over 1400m, that he has had a run over the distance will hold him in good stead here as a few of these are yet to run over that trip. The claim for Ryan gets him down to 50.5kgs.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 MAD PIRATE
R2 –12.00pm. TAB.com.au Handicap - 1500m.
No2 JUST DREAMING has done the job brilliantly for followers at the last two starts with good wins. King back aboard the filly isn’t a knock as she is riding in brilliant form at the moment and she keeps on improving. The small field suits and she should dominate here.
No6 INSENSATA closed off in good order behind Just Dreaming last start, Clark jumps on board for KOH here and even though they meet at level weights again Clark is in brilliant touch at the minute and from barrier 1 he should sit a touch closer in the run.
No7 LOPE DE LOPE was scratched out of Wednesday for this and gets in with no weight on his back after the claim for Adkins. I think she is a horse with a lot of scope and can really step up. Jaunty ran second on Wedesnday to help us a touch with the form.
SCRATCHED No1 CAERLESS CHOICE never got a crack at them in the QLD Guineas. He got bailed up on the fence there and should have finished a hell of a lot closer in the run. He does have to carry 58kgs after the claim for Innes here, but he hasn’t won outside of country grade which is a concern.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 LOPE DE LOPE
R3 – 12.35pm. McGrath Estate Agents Handicap - 1900m.
No10 DOMED produced one of the better wins I have ever seen when getting the job done at Canterbury last start. She was held up until the 150m and somehow got out and won the job done on the line. The step to 1900m is ideal now and with no weight she could finish over the top.
No9 WALK THE STREETS comes out of good races this time in and drops 4kgs on the last start effort at Canterbury, the jump up to 1900m now is ideal and if she is to step up like the stable have talked about she needs to do so here.
No2 I’LL FLY AWAY has been going ok in QLD for Weir and drops well in grade for this race having not being too far off Religify last weekend. The wide gate a slight issue for her, but I think she will go back here and be saved for one last shot at them.
No6 FANTASIZE won well last start in the midweeks and beat a few of her rivals here. She ran right through the line there and now steps to 1900m which looks perfect for her. From gate 5, Angland should take up a closer spot here.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 FANTASIZE
R4 – 1.10pm. TAB Highway Handicap - 1800m.
No3 CALL THE CAPTAIN comes back to Highway level after a poor run last start on Saturday level at Ipswich. The run prior to that in a highway similar to this was quite good. Down to 54kgs after the claim here for Innes gets him down to 54kgs and up to 1800m third up is perfect.
No13 IT’S A LOTTERY (BEST ROUGHIE) won strongly over 2000m last start and now dropping back to 1800m shouldn’t be an issue at all. T Clark jumps on board now and he drops 4kgs for that win. From gate 14 he should slide forward here and be hard to run down.
No12 O’LORDY was good last start behind Zamex, that highway form has proven to be some of the best going around in recent times. She is one that will need to go forward from barrier 16 here as she will be caught out in a limb if she isn’t forward after a few hundred metres.
No2 BARBASS fell in last start at $1.26 after being slightly disappointing in runs prior. The big advantage here is barrier 1 and getting H Bowman on board, he has always looked as if he will run 2000m and the step to 1800m now is ideal.
VALUE RUNNER: No13 IT’S A LOTTERY
R5 – 1.45pm. ATC Winter Cup - 2400m.
No3 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN gets in with no weight at all here and has been doing a good enough job in Victoria as of late. The step up to 2400m now should suit him and he gets that perfect run from barrier 1 here and the going is no issue.
No5 TICK TICK BLOOM wants the rain to stick around and hasn’t enjoyed the firm going that she hasn’t run on in her last two starts. She drops well in weight off her last two runs and running over the 2400m here should be no issue at all.
No6 MONTAUK steps up to 2400m for the first time and the way he has been running as of late, that shouldn’t be an issue. He has run right through the line at his last 4 and now from the gate (7) I wouldn’t be shocked if Clark went forward here. The worry is 12 starts at Rosehill for nothing.
No1 DESTINY’S KISS is low flying this time in and the step to 2400m now is perfect in a lead up for the Grafton Cup. He has a big weight to carry here which is the one concern for me. But wet track and 2400m now is perfect.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 TICK TICK BLOOM
R6 – 2.25pm. TAB Handicap - 1200m.
No4 HETTY HEIGHTS resumes and she has a fantastic fresh record and the two trials coming in have been nothing short of brilliant. She handles all types of going and I like that she is starting out in a benchmark race here rather than taking on black type like she did last time in. From barrier 8 she is drawn to have the last shot at them.
No6 FICKLE FOLLY looks to lead them up here and will give them something to run down here. With Avdulla on board here, he just needs a quiet furlong or two to give an almighty kick at the top of the straight and be the one to run down.
No1 PIONEERING ran through the line well enough fresh, she comes back to mares level here and cops it at the weights, but that is offset by Innes. Yet to win second-up but she does have quite good record nonetheless and on her home track she has to be considered.
No2 UPSCALE hasn’t shown the speed that she had shown in the past this time in, but there doesn’t look to be as much pressure here, which gives her a chance to lead. She has a great record at Rosehill and Bowman will suit her.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 PIONEERING
R7 – 3.05pm. Civic Stakes - 1350m.
No2 GOLD SYMPHONY drops back form the Stradbroke last start where he was quite good. He was only 3 lengths off them there and does go up in weight for that though. But this is at least 5 lengths weaker than that. Bowman on board gives him the best run possible.
No8 SIR BACCHUS was scratched last week in what looks to be a preference for this race / avoiding a super heavy track. Even though he is yet to win past the 1200m I think that at this stage of his career that he should appreciate it. He goes well at Rosehill and has his chance.
No1 THE MONSTAR ideally wants more rain to come before the race after dominating the June stakes last start. He just swam through the going there and killed them. He goes up in weight and in distance now and if he can just keep his form he is going to be hard to hold out.
No11 INVINCIBLE KNIGHT did a great job last start when winning with 61kgs aided by a gem from Bowman. Up in grade now and down in weight suits him here as does the step up to 1350m. He will get further in time, it’s just if he has the freshness in his legs still.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 INVINCIBLE KNIGHT
R8 – 3.45pm. Schweppes Handicap - 1100m.
No10 SIR PLUSH (BEST BET) returned with a vengeance fresh and although there were some worries about him handling the heavy conditions, he got through them with ease and utterly smashed them. He has an average second-up record which is a slight concern. But he looks to have come back better and with Bjorn flying at the moment he can’t be knocked.
SCRATCHED No9 I AM GYPSY has changed stables since the last start run in Adelaide and now joins the Dale yard. Watch the betting here, as he is very canny.
No11 CALANDA finds himself back in Sydney for the first time since the first up win at Canterbury. I expect him to sit back last here and come at them with one run with only 53kgs on his back.
No1 OXFORD POET comes into this with a good fresh record and has been trialing quite well. The claim for Innes helps here.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 I AM GYPSY
R9 – 4.25pm. #THERACES Handicap - 1500m.
No7 CARZOFF (NEXT BEST BET) got gunned down on the line last start and the form out of that race has held up brilliantly already. From the wide gate I expect Bowman is going to dominate the race and sit outside the leader. He should be fully fit and ready to go third-up from a spell and give us a good way to finish the day.
No6 PICK ME UP closed off brilliantly last start, we will get a guide on how good the form is when Invincible Knight goes around in the Civic and I expect it to hold up well.
No4 RENEGED won in good fashion last start. He looks like he is ready to take that next step now, the gate is a little worrying. But I think he will take a sit behind Carzoff in the run here and that gives him the best chance.
No10 KING VIV been doing a great job at the provincials when winning his last two in good time. The trial since last week was quite nippy and he will be running on.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 KING VIV