Cauflield (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips

Betting tips for every race at Caulfield. Today’s best bet is in race 7.

Oddschecker
 | 
Fri, 14 Jul, 1:26 AM

 

Melbourne’s week-long showers will ensure that the ‘sting’ is definitely out of the ground on Saturday – even though the Race Club has predicted a Good 4 rating. The false rail has been moved 10-metres out for the entire circuit for this meeting, which could be an assist to on-pace runners.


                               

 

QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)

Skinny Play: 1,4 – 1,7 – 6,7 – 4,8,12

Wide Play: 1,4,6,7 – 1,6,7 – 2,6,7,10 – 4,8,9,11,12,13

 

BEST BET: R7– 7. SUPIDO

Next Best Bet: R1 –  3. DATA POINT

Best Roughie: R6 – 4. MY PAISANN

R1 – 11.45am. TROA Supports Jockeys Trust BM78 Plate – 1400m.

No3 DATA POINT (NEXT BEST BET) Three runs this campaign were top-notch and he looks the one to beat again. Beat Lord Sherwood by four-lengths with 60kg  first-up May 7 Pakenham BM70 Heavy9 then solid 1.5-length second Cannyescent with 55.5kg 1400m Sandown Lakeside BM84 Good3 May 27. Freshened before covering ground and finishing close third Petrology with 52.5kg in stronger grade 1600m Moonee Valley June 17. Will appreciate the drop in class and should give Beau Mertens a kickalong in pursuit of his first Jockeys’ title.

 

No5 ORIENT LINE  Atoned for unlucky Flemington 1400m run by blitzing Emoji by 5.5-lengths 1400m Pakenham Synthetic 1400m BM70 June 25. Craig Williams elected to ride so that’s a good pointer.

 

SCRATCHED No6 LORD TENNYSON Scored two fighting wins at Cranbourne BM64 and Sandown Hillside 1400m Soft5 from past three runs. Dwayne Dunn replaces Williams who jumped off to ride Orient Line.

 

No9 PAKAYA PRINCE Solid third Invicible Knight Rosehill 1350m BM78 Heavy8 then too good for Dane Thunder 1400m Sandown Lakeside BM70 Soft6 July 5. Drops 2kg for winning and must be respected again.

 

VALUE RUNNER: No9 PAKAYA PRINCE

R2 – 12.20pm. John & Denise Cobcroft Handicap – 1200m.

No1 BANDIPUR Won in the style of an outstanding prospect at second start when he stalked the leaders with 58kg and dashed away to beat Smooth Celebration by 8-lengths 1100m Moe 2YO Maiden Soft7 June 24. Struck heaps of trouble on debut but still caught the eye getting home. Has plenty of upside and it will take a good one to beat him here. Extra distance in his favour and only has to go around one bend from wide gate. Classy.

 

No5 EVOLUTIONIST Ran home strongly despite laying in when neck second Takemehomemister with 58kg 1100m Bendigo Soft5 June 21. Will be improved and nicely in with Ben Thompson’s 1.5kg claim.

 

No10 ALJAWZAA  Came from last early for nose win on debut 1100m Gawler Good4 Dec 24 then resumed with dogged half-length second She’s So High 1000m 2YO Fillies Sandown Hillside Soft5 June 28. Fitter now and drawn to get the ideal run against the boys with Craig Williams on board.

 

No4 CHIYOU $340K Lonhro colt who showed plenty of dash in recent Caulfield jump-out. Primed to run a big race on debut.

 

 

VALUE RUNNER: No5 EVOLUTIONIST

R3 – 12.55pm. Henry Dwyer Racing Handicap – 1200m.

No3 MOONLITES CHOICE Williams will take her back from wide barrier but she has a powerful finish and will be rattling home. Came from last on straightening to swamp Simply Splashing 1200m Swan Hill 3YO BM70 Soft5 with 58kg June 9 then blocked for clear running until final 150m with 59.5kg when eye-catching 1.65-length fifth Unique Lovely 1100m here Good4 July 1.  Nicely-placed here to return to the winning list.

 

No6 ABRIOLA Faultless beginner who should land in the box seat from inside draw. Sat outside leader before powering away from Attack The Line 1100m Geelong Synthetic BM58 May 12 then freshened again when too strong for Levitical 1200m BM64 Pakenham Synthetic June 8. Has claims.

 

No1 HOT DIPPED Tasmanian Guineas winner 1600m Hobart Jan. 6 who is having first start since close second Parthesia 2100m Tasmanian Oaks Launceston Soft5 Feb 19. Classy and likely to sprint well fresh. Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg claim brings her in nicely at the weights.

 

No8 BAY HARMONY Has won both starts this campaign and drops to 53kg with Jake Bayliss’ claim here. Kicked clear on turn and held on to beat subsequent Sandown winner Whyouask 1200m Mornington 3YO Fillies BM64 June 12 with 57.5kg. Lightweight chance in this tougher company.

 

VALUE RUNNER: No1 HOT DIPPED

R4 – 1.30pm. Laming Racing Handicap – 2000m.

No4 ROYAL ORDER Came from last with withering run to narrowly beat Kiwia with 53kg 2000m Flemington June 10 then blinkers caused him to over-race early when plugging on 4-length fifth Kiwia over this trip June 1. Last run was a complete ‘forget’. Blinkers go off and senior rider Luke Nolen goes on to make him settle. Rapid improvement expected even though he meets Kiwia on 1kg worse terms.

 

No1 KIWIA  Racing brilliantly and looks the one to beat again. Swamped on the post when photo second Royal Order with 56.5kg 2000m Flemington 3YO BM78 Good4 June 10 then kicked away at 250m to easily beat Savvy Dresser with 56.5kg over this trip two weeks ago. Nicely in with Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg claim.

 

SCRATCHED No3 THAAD Sparingly raced and shows promise. Rocketed home to beat What A Shock 1600m Flemington 3YO Good4 June 24. On the improve and gives the impression he will relish the extra distance of this.  Expect him to be finishing strongly again.

 

No7 SAVVY DRESSER Boasts a win and three seconds from four starts this time in and rates as an each-way chance again. Ran home doggedly without threatening the winner when 1.75-length second with 54.5kg to Kiwia over this trip two weeks back. Short-priced favourite in winning 2060m Cranbourne Maiden two runs earlier May 26.

 

VALUE RUNNER: No4 ROYAL ORDER

R5 – 2.10pm. National Jockeys Trust Plate – 1700m.

No12 BLING DYNASTY Had first start for 18months when photo second Mt Gambier Flying Hcp Soft7 May 12 then was doing best work at the finish when 2.2-length sixth Cannyescent 1400m Flemington Good4 June 24. Craig Williams goes back on, having won successive races with him at Moonee Valley 2040m and 2500m before the lengthy spell. Gets a suitable distance here and is bound to make his presence felt third-up.

 

No1 ONPICALO Has been just behind the placings at three runs since beating Zebrinz and Petrology with 52.5kg over 1600m here Good3 May 13. Sat deep, shot clear on turn and led to the shadows of the post when half-length fourth Petrology 1600m Moonee Valley with 56kg June 17 then held up in straight and speared home for length fourth Radipole 1800m Good4 here two weeks ago. Honest and has benefit of Chris Caserta’s 3kg claim here.

 

No3 COLDSTONE Led and was beaten on straightening when fading 4.7-length seventh Black Tomahawk 2040m Moonee Valley Good3 with 52.5kg June 17 then box-seated when narrow winner Don’t Get Excited 1600m here two weeks ago with 61kg. Drops 2kg here and should get a comfortable passage again from inside draw.

 

SCRATCHED No6 NESBO Produced an incredible run at first run for over a year when he sat deep throughout and pelted home with 57kg to beat Here To There 1400m Good4 this track two weeks ago. Has six wins and four placings from 21 starts including impressive win over Royal Rapture 1600m Sandown Heavy8 13 months ago. Extra distance and prospect of having the sting out of the ground will be in his favour and he represents value again.

 

VALUE RUNNER: No6 NESBO

BLING DYNASTY Caulfield 05:10 - Winner

R6 – 2.50pm. TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap – 1400m.

No1 REVOLVING DOOR Beat Liberty Song first-up 1200m Moonee Valley 3YO June 17 then looked home when he kicked clear at 300m but peaked near line when photo second My Paisann over this trip Good4 with 58kg two weeks ago. Meets My Paisann 4kg better so it’s hard to argue against him. Has pace to be handy again which will give him a head start on straightening. Possibility of a rain-affected track might be only bogey.

 

No4 MY PAISANN (BEST ROUGHIE) Very impressive type who was forced to lead and fought on tenaciously when half-length second Jaminzah 1400m Sandown Lakeside 3YO BM64 Soft5 second-up June 7 then came from last on turn to swamp Revolving Door over this trip with 54kg two weeks ago. Promising type who meets Revolving Door on decidedly worse terms and would probably be better suited at 1600m now but smacks of quality and will be running on.

 

No6 ENIGMAN At his peak following three solid runs from a spell and bound to make his presence felt again. Easily accounted for She’s Beneficial 1300m Bendigo Elmore Cup with 59.5kg Soft5 June 3 then kept coming all the way down the straight when dour neck third My Paisann and Revolving Door similar event here two weeks ago with 54kg. Meets Revolving Door 3kg worse here but has 1kg advantage on My Paisann. Will make his presence felt.

 

No7 WAYANKA Working towards another win. Carried 60.5kg when 0.7-length fourth Just Dreaming 1500m Rosehill Good3 June 3 then was on inferior inside section when battling 1.9-length fifth Thaad 1600m Flemington 3YO Good4 June 24. Won successive Canterbury starts 1200m Soft7 3YO Maiden April 17 and 1250m 3YO BM67 May 10. Keep safe.

 

VALUE RUNNER: N04 MY PAISANN

R7 – 3.30pm. PFD Food Services Monash Stakes – 1100m.

No7 SUPIDO (BEST BET) Has been pitted against the best sprinters in the nation last four starts and looks nicely placed here. Courageous 1.6-length third to English and Redzel 1000m WFA Randwick Challenge Heavy10 March 4 then checked early and bogged down on Heavy10 track when 13th Russian Revolution 1100m Rosehill Galaxy March 18. Won his only start on Soft going and should be in a striking position from barrier 5 here. The one to beat.

 

No1 LORD OF THE SKY Classy customer having first run for 12 months and rates strongly on win over Fast’n’Rocking G3 Bletchingly Stks this trip last July. Proven at weight-for-age and fitter for recent barrier trial.

 

SCRATCHED No6 CHOCOLATE HOLIC Former Perth galloper who rates highly on solid two-length second subsequent Goodwood winner Vega Magic 1400m Ascot  WFA scale Dec. 10. Strong first-up chance for Darren Weir stable and Craig Williams.

 

SCRATCHED No10 O’MALLEY Disappointed in four runs this campaign. Go on defeat of Jungle Edge 955m Moonee Valley two runs earlier Oct. 22. Can bounce back to form.

 

 

VALUE RUNNER: No6 CHOCOLATE HOLIC

R8 – 4.10pm. LUCR Super Supports Jockeys – 1200m.

No6 DIVINE CHILLS Racing in great heart with two wins and a second from last three starts. Found Mamzelle Tess too strong Sale 1411m F&M BM78 May 17 then hit lead at 300m with 59.5kg and fought on to just beat Little Indian 1200m Sandown Lakeside F&M BM70 July 5. Lightly-raced type who has four wins and two seconds from only 12 starts. Bound to be near the money again with big weight drop.

 

SCRATCHED No7 ZARA BAY  Improved by two runs from a spell and ready to hit her peak. Chased hard when length second Essence of Terror 1000m Moonee Valley Mares BM84 June 17 then only plodded when 5.5-length ninth Leodoro BM84 here two weeks ago. Back to female grade here so forward showing expected.

 

No10 ADALITA  Strong first-up effort when she sat wide and battled hard for half-length second Moonlover 1200m Geelong Synthetic BM70 July 4. Beat Braemar two runs earlier 1200m Pakenham F&M BM70 Good4 with 57kg Jan. 25. Nicely placed here with 52.5kg for Ben Allen.

 

No2 SULLIVAN BAY Ran a string of fourth placings before having an easy time in front and holding on too well for Grey Street 1200m Mares BM90 here two weeks ago. Might not have it so easy this time but still commands respect with only 1kg more here.

 

VALUE RUNNER: No7 ZARA BAY

R9 – 4.45pm. OTI Racing Handicap – 1400m

No8 SCHISM Promising mare racing in great form and looks the one to beat again. Sprinted clear at 200m and easily accounted for Tsaritsa 1400m Mares BM90 Good4 June 24 then repeated the performance in downing Vital Importance with 54.5kg Leilani Mares Series Final same trip last Saturday. Drops 0.5kg for winning and drawn to get the perfect run off the pace again. Should go out on a winning note so she can prepare for the Spring riches.

 

No12 VITAL IMPORTANCE Circled the field in moderately-run race and loomed alongside Schism on straightening before being outsprinted final 200m when length second to that mare over 1400m last Saturday. Meets Schism 2kg better and will strip at her peak for this while Schism heads to the paddock. Both mares are taking on open company but it’s not the toughest field. She will get cover this week and looks the logical danger.

 

No4 VELOX Proven middle-distance galloper resuming from an 16-month spell and has an excellent record fresh. Not sighted since beating Kareeming 2000m Mornington BM90 with 56.5kg April 2016. Proven in better class, including 3-length fifth Stratum Star, Awesome Rock and Leebaz – all Group winners – 2000m Caulfield four runs earlier. Stable has an excellent record of producing stayers to win first-up and the 53.5kg here is the lightest weight he’s carried for ages.

 

No13 HERE TO THERE  Not far away in three starts since beating Evangelist Morphettville BM90 Good4 April 1. Struck trouble when seventh Magic Consul 1600m Moonee Valley BM84 June 3 then pipped on the post by Nesbo over this trip two weeks ago. Drops 3.5kg in slightly tougher race here and has Craig Williams on top to get him across from wide gate. Should be in the money.

 

 

VALUE RUNNER: No4 VELOX

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