Golden Rose: Early Market Analysis

Early market analysis for the 2017 G1 Golden Rose.

Oddschecker
 | 
Thu, 7 Sep, 1:32 AM

We are inside three weeks away from one of Sydney’s premier 3YO races of the year, the G1 Golden Rose. After having seen most main chances in the early markets step out for their spring campaigns, here is our verdict.

 

What to look for:

 

Run over 1400m at Rosehill, the traditional lead-up events to the Golden Rose are;

 

i) The Run to the Rose, 1200m, Rosehill (two weeks prior)

ii) The Stan Fox, 1500m, Rosehill (two weeks prior)

 

However, runners may back up through either the Tea Rose (fillies 1400m) and less likely the Heritage (1100m) from the Randwick meeting one week before.

 

There are many factors that comprise an ideal profile for a Golden Rose prospect. Arguably, the biggest factor is the ability to run a strong 1400m. As such, building a platform through two 1200m runs or dropping back slightly from a 1500m event are ideal. Being handy to the speed is advantageous more often than not at Rosehill, so finding a fit on-speed type who’s ticked the 1400m box is gold.

 

Who to look for:

 

Menari – ($6.50):

The son of Snitzel performed well in the top grade as a 2YO but always gave the impression he would improve even further at 3. Looked big and woolly in the yard prior to his brilliant win in the Rosebud (1100m) on the back of two 900m trials. This weekend’s Run to the Rose should top him right off for the 1400m event.

 

He hasn’t quite ticked the 1400m box yet, having run down the track in the G1 Sires Produce (Vet: poor post-race recovery) in his only 1400m start. The start before this he was 3 wide, no cover the trip in a golden slipper on what could only be described as a heavy 20 Rosehill surface – that’s enough for me to say he’ll run a strong 1400m on top of the ground.

 

Top pick, very keen.

 

Pariah – ($7)

Rocketed into favouritism after a dominant win in the 1100m G3 San Domenico but has since been pushed out slightly. A boom 2YO running a close (0.4L) second to Catchy in the Blue Diamond before failing to handle the sloppy conditions in the Golden slipper.

 

Still have genuine queries over the 1400m for the son of Redoute’s Choice. This year’s Rosebud rates superior to the San Domenico for mine, especially when an 11/10 ride from Blake Shinn may have made Pariah look more enticing. Happy to leave him alone at the short quote.

 

Kemantari – ($9)

Had been favourite for this event since his gap job victory (4L) at the end of May. He will be seen first-up after two good trials in this week’s Run to the Rose. 1400m absolutely no problem given how well he won over the trip last time in. However, the genuine queries are the form behind him not stacking up [as strong as many others in the market] and the fitness edge some gallopers may have being third up over 1400m rather than having their second run in. Willing to take on at this point.

 

Merchant Navy – ($11)

The un-defeated son of Fastnet Rock brings some alternative form-lines from down in Melbourne. The 1400m shouldn’t be too much of an issue, winning in the listed Anzac Day stakes over the trip. The Colt enjoyed a nice run shielded from the wind in his G3 McNeil win last weekend, unlikely that will be happening in the Rose. He will more than likely have to do it from the back and I don’t envisage him running down some of the classier gallopers who’ll be closer to the speed.

 

Addictive Nature – ($15)

Being by Savabeel out of Generous Nature, this colt is bred to get much further than 1400m. Having sat right on the speed in his 3 race starts (overall 3:2-1-0) this preparation which kicked off in late June, he certainly ticks the fitness and on-speed boxes. I also have an opinion of some gallopers who’ve finished behind him including Assimilate (see below) and Gold Standard, so the form is there. If he wins the Stan Fox this weekend ($2.90 at present) and goes this way, don’t be expecting $15!

 

Assimilate – ($26)

Looked all over the winner in the straight last time out over 1400m against Addictive Nature but looked to just flatten out within the final 100m (and past the post where Addictive Nature looked stronger). Don’t think he’ll derive too much fitness form that run, but he may not need to sticking to the same trip. Have Addictive Nature ahead, but the price differential is far too large.

 

Siege of Quebec – ($26)

Another box-ticker. Bold front-running type who was heavily backed into favouritism in the Rosebud when going down to 1.3L Menari. Prior to this he defeated Calculated who had a good spruik around him but since disappointed in the Up and Coming. Convinced the Rosebud is the top form line and as such the $26 seems very generous, will be looking to snag some each way value prior to the Run to the Rose this weekend.

 

 Champagne Cuddles – ($26)

Intriguing runner at the $26 mark. Should be un-defeated, going down to Formality narrowly twice this preparation, both over 1200m. Both times she has been the strongest on the line and despite her small stature looks like the 1400m will suit. She’ll be hard to hold out in the Tea Rose over this distance in two weeks’ time and if a good win in that event sees her backing up in the Golden Rose there will certainly be no $26 about.

 

Selections:

 

Menari - $6.50

Siege of Quebec - $26

Addictive Nature - $15

Champagne Cuddles - $26

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