Rosehill (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Rosehill. Today’s best bet is in race 4
Rosehill for Golden Rose day here, an outstanding bunch of 3yos have gathered here for the first Group 1 of their season. The only question to be asked, can Menari run 1400m? Outside of that we have some leadups for some of the bigger races later in the carnival. Weather brilliant, rail out 3m.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 3,8 - 2,3 - 1,5,7 - 5
Wide Play: 1,3,8 - 2,3,10 - 1,2,4,5,7 - 2,5,10
BEST BET: R4 – 3. UP ’N’ ROLLING
Next Best Bet: R9 – 5. ZUMBELINA
Best Roughie: R7 – 10. ASSIMILATE
R1 – 12.15pm. Nathan’s Famous Hotdogs Handicap - 1300m.
No5 PARET was a brilliant winner on debut and would have won by a lot further if he had gotten clearer a lot earlier in the straight there. He has been talked up as a colt with some promise and it would be no shock to see him run in some better races later in the spring.
No2 BEAU GESTE was quite good first-up in a very fast run race that should hold up form wise. The worry about him fresh was the 1300m after the two soft trials. He should be much fitter after a tough run race last start and be in the finish.
SCRATCHED No8 BELLA SUCCESS hit the line quite well second up after winning the maiden fresh, the step up now to the 1300m and the bigger track should see her finish off much better and with the low weight of 53kgs here she should be finishing off.
No6 AONAIR finished off with a flurry first-up at Warwick Farm. She gets a soft draw (2) here, the only concern here is back to the 1300m after winning over 1400m fresh.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 BELLA SUCCESS
R2 – 12.50pm. Colin Stephen Quality - 2400m.
No4 AUVRAY has been in great form as off late and got a touch too far back last start in the Newcastle Cup, the extra 100m the way he has been finishing off looks to be nothing but suitable here for him and he could be a metro player.
No1 BROADSIDE won the Newcastle Cup in good fashion and rapidly improved second-up from a spell leading all of the way there. He started $17 there and is now $2 here. On the SP you do have to take him on here.
No4 ADMIRAL JELLO ran third in that Newcastle Cup and stuck on quite well there. Now that he has had that run over the 2300m, the 2400m here shouldn’t be much of an issue at all.
No2 DEE I CEE up to 2400m comes back to the scene of the crime where he won well two starts ago and should run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 AUVRAY
R3 –1.25pm. TAB Highway Handicap - 1500m.
No2 DON’T GIVE A DAMN was brilliant at the second start off an eight-day back up when taking on class 3 level at this track. Third up in the first preparation and now up to 1500m suit perfectly and he is going to get a great run from barrier 4.
No5 CATCH THE CULPRIT brings good form to this and has won the last two in strong fashion and the trial at Queanbeyan was very good in fast time and he looks ready for this, despite Moryua not being the strongest of country areas.
No6 ONLY CHOICE brings solid to form to this race and was quite good first up at Goulburn without a trial. He has had a trial since that run and gets the winkers on for the first time here. From barrier 3 he gets a perfect run here.
No3 MAJESTIC PEDRILLE brings quite good form to this race and the step up to 1500m here should be suitable. Big jockey change getting Avdulla on here and she should be in the finish.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 CATCH THE CULPRIT
R4 – 2.00pm. Ranvet Handicap - 2000m.
No3 UP ’N’ ROLLING (BEST BET) looks perfectly set up here for the 2000m third-up from a spell and we may well see him back up in the Metropolitan next week provided he wins well enough and his ratings get him into the race. The two wins this time in have been fantastic and he really grinded away to win last start and gets a soft run again here and should be winning again.
No2 ALWARD was poor last start and now with the step up to 2000m yet again he should improve and could be metro bound too.
No5 QUICK DEFENCE finally broke through for the first Australian win last start and won that race quite well. He should run well again.
No4 IMANUI will again do what Imanui does each and every week, and that is run on without winning. Place chance again.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 QUICK DEFENCE
R5 – 2.35pm. Schweppes Shannon Stakes - 1500m.
No9 DAWN WALL second-up from a spell looks the one here, she looked home for all money fresh, before condition gave out at the 100m and she was just touched off by Washington Heights. I like that she has had the three weeks between runs coming into this and should run well.
No5 WASHINGTON HEIGHTS should be 2/2 this time in and we all know what happened fresh. The win last start was quite good, and he showed some tactical versatility there and took up a position. The map from barrier 8 is quite tricky and should be in the finish.
No1 GOOD PROJECT should improve second-up from a spell here, he just found the line well in a race that wasn’t at all run to suit him there. Now his second-up record is quite average, but the way he has been going in the trials and the way he found the line fresh means he is suited.
No4 EURO ANGEL was quite good last start when finding the line well over 1300m second-up. Now that she comes to the 1500m third-up from a spell where she has performed well at in the past she looks a minor chance here.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 EURO ANGEL
R6 – 3.15pm. James Boag's Premium Gloaming Stakes - 1800m.
No3 SANCTIONED looks perfectly set up here third-up from a spell to 1800m. His two runs he has always looked as if he would be a derby horse and now he is up to a suitable distance. I like how Bowman takes over here and he gets a perfect run from barrier 3.
No8 THY KINGDOM COME bolted in when dropping back in grade second-up. He got that kill there that he needed to get, to boost his confidence and he would have gained a lot from that. The step up now to 1800m is suitable here and given his breeding, the further he gets the better.
No1 ASTORIA won well in the Spring Stakes last week at Newcastle and ran right through the line there. He is third up to 1800m here and this is where we should start to see the best of him here, but do think he has been aggressively priced at the $2.40 in early markets.
No2 ACE HIGH is another who is going to be perfectly suited up to the 1800m here. Ever since his win fresh in the 1400m maiden he hasn’t run in a race that will suit him. He is going to get better as the distances increase.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 THY KINGDOM COME
R7 – 3.55pm. De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose - 1400m.
No2 MENARI has bolted in at both starts this time in and has really given his backers no worries at all in both runs this time in. The only concern about him here is the chance that he won’t run 1400m, but given the way he has run through the line in both runs it shouldn’t be an issue.
No3 PARIAH is set to peak third-up from a spell. I am not sure if he can turn it around on Menari, but if he has more luck in the run and I do expect him to go back in the run and let loose with the turn of foot that he has, not go forward which dilutes his dynamic sprint.
No10 ASSIMILATE (BEST ROUGHIE) ran right through the line last start and had to make a long sustained run there. He draws a better gate here (9) and Bowman should be able to sit a touch closer in the run and that could prove to be the difference here. The trial between runs was fantastic and he looks like he will be in the finish.
No4 GOLD STANDARD convincing winner last start and looks the main danger to Menari here. Coming back the 100m in distance won’t be an issue at all for him. Tommy comes back from HK for the first time to ride him and wouldn’t be on the plane for no reason.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 ASSIMILATE
R8 – 4.35pm. Golden Pendant - 1400m.
No1 DIXIE BLOSSOMS found the line quite well fresh in a race which wasn’t run to suit her at all there. She now comes into this second-up where she has a brilliant second-up record. She ran second in this race last year and looks to be on the same path towards the Myer as she was last spring and is HTB here.
No5 DANISH TWIST should have been a lot closer fresh in the Sheraco, she never got a clear crack at them in the straight and was climbing over their backs there. Second-up from a spell with Shinn on board she gets a softer run of it here and should be thereabouts.
No7 BONNY O’REILLY gets a much softer run of the race here and she looks much more suited than when she was last start. She was wide in the run last start and never got any cover. Collett should be able to sit her just behind the leaders here and if the gaps appear she will be in the finish.
No4 DAYSEE DOOM was good enough fresh and should improve a lot off that. Ronny’s horses have been parading as if they could use a run fresh and now that she is second-up she should be able to come across from the gate and dominate the race outside Sweet Redemption. If she can do that she looks hard to beat.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 DANISH TWIST
R9 – 5.15pm. TAB.com.au Handicap - 1400m.
No5 ZUMBELINA (NEXT BEST BET) should send punters home happy here given the way that she won fresh in utterly brilliant fashion. She didn’t take that step last time in, but looks to have spelled well and furnished into a good mare. She draws a soft gate yet again here and only needs a touch of luck from barrier 1 and she will win this again before taking on better races.
No10 IMPAVIDO resumes off a derby preparation and was a winner on debut last prep over 1400m, the trials have been good.
No2 SOUCHEZ comes back to Sydney here and looks to have trialled well since the last start run. He is unbeaten at Rosehill.
No4 SIR PLUSH steps up in distance to 1400m which looks as if it will suit given the way he has been racing.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 IMPAVIDO