With strong rain forecast it is going to be hard to predict the track condition at this stage.
The false rail is at six metres and there are no strong winds forecast.
If the rain comes then the track could chop up as the day progresses and jockeys may scout wide for better going.
Suggest to keep a close eye on the track rating on the day and if it does deteriorate then look for the one who can handle the sodden conditions.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 2,6 – 3,7 – 1,7 – 8,12
Wide Play: 2,4,6,10 – 3,7,8,12 – 1,5,7 – 5,8,10,12
BEST BET: R7 – 1. SHERLOCK HOLMES
Next Best Bet: R4 – 1. GOLD BLUSH
Best Roughie: R6 – 6. SPANKS
No13 REEH gets recent Group 1 winning jockey Michael Dee to partner here in a field of maidens. Did not stop and kept working home strongly to finish third over 1900m in a maiden at Pakenham on September 22. The stable is in form.
No11 BLACK HAT hails from the yard of Tony McEvoy who is running hot. With a run over this distance under his belt when finishing third over 2400m here in a maiden on September 29 he will strip fitter for this race. Strong showing here.
No7 DEEP PURPLE has top jockey Damien Oliver as his new partner and is rock solid with two runs over the journeys under his belt. Latest he ran close second over 2447m in a maiden at Geelong on September 17. Good chance.
No8 HALLEYS CHOICE was stepped up to a journey for the first time when finishing a strong second over 2200m in a maiden at Pakenham on September 21. Ben Thompson keeps the ride and should get a nice cart from gate seven.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 HALLEYS CHOICE
No1 FUTURIST showed good courage to hold third place after being headed over 1200m in a maiden at Cranbourne on September 20. Ryan Maloney won a big race for the stable at Flemington on Saturday and he is riding. Sure to be short in betting.
No4 ECHO JET will wear a lugging bit and winkers at his debut. He should be improved on his sole trial when finishing fourth over 298m at Warwick Farm on May 15. Nicely bred colt from the leading stable of Team Hawkes and respect.
No7 ISLE OF LIGHT is a nicely bred colt by Manhattan Rain from the More Than Ready mare Arctic Light. The Ellerton and Zahra stable have booked the red-hot Damian Lane to ride at his debut. Watch betting.
No11 KIWI SHOWGIRL gets top apprentice Beau Mertens to ride at her debut. She is a well-bred filly by Showcasing from the Octagonal mare Free Form She has drawn perfectly in gate two and she is from an astute stable. Worth a look.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 KIWI SHOWGIRL
No2 VON CLASSIC HERO showed plenty of spirit in a dual with the leaders before peaking and finishing sixth over 1630m at Flemington on September 27. Back here to the country and has an affinity for this course.
SCRATCHED No4 JOLIE’S CAFÉ is on the quick back up which is a query. Ran well on Friday night before finishing fourth to Rock Away over 1600m at Moonee Valley. He was the $3.60 favourite that night and his prior country form is sound.
No6 DASH FOR DEE struck a bog track when backed into a $5 favourite before finishing a solid fifth over 1628m at Moe on September 25. With rain forecast here the track is anticipated to deteriorate so would keep most safe.
No3 BIG JOHN CANNON gets the blinkers going back on here. He won over 1406m at Benella two starts ago before finishing 10th over 1400m here on September 28. He copped a check inside the 200m and fought on okay.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 BIG JOHN CANNON
No1 GOLD BLUSH (NEXT BEST BET) exploded to post an outstanding 3.75 length maiden win over 1530m against her own sex at Geelong on September 17. She then ran a fighting third over 1800m against mares when she was elevated in grade at Flemington on September 17. Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg claim drops her weight to a comfortable 57kg against her own sex.
No6 CEDAR GRANDE has a perfect record of one start for one win at this track.
No4 TIFFANY’S LASS has the speed to be on the pace or lead. Chance from that position.
No5 THAT RINGS A BELL has won at two and been placed once from her six starts.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 THAT RINGS A BELL
No2 CORUSCATE hails from the Godolphin yard of James Cummings. Ran a great third at Group 2 level in Sydney on a Heavy 8 last campaign so he can cope with a wet track. He will strip fitter on his first-up fourth over 1200m at Moonee Valley on September 29.
No1 INDIAN THUNDER is a Listed winner in Adelaide and ran a good third over 1000m at Ballarat on September 24 when he was backed from $9 into $6. With apprentice Ethan Brown’s 1.5kg claim he carries 58.5kg and makes each-way appeal.
SCRATCHED No10 JOSEPHINE SEA has plenty of upside with a win and two placings at three starts. She ran third over 1200m at Moonee Valley on June 17 before being spelled. She was the $3.80 favourite that night. Has a perfect record fresh.
No6 METSON struck a high-grade field when finishing 13th to Royal Symphony over 1400m at Flemington on September 16. At his debut he smashed his rivals by 45.25 lengths at Cranbourne over 1300m on a bog track. Chance here.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 METSON
No7 KING MOMBASSA was spearing home late when just missed catching Flaming Bel over 1300m here on September 28. He was backed from $4.60 into $4.20 that day and hanging in did not help his cause. He is new as it was his third start.
No3 SPEARHEAD won over 1400m at Ballarat four starts ago. Latest he was backed from $4.40 into $3.80 before finishing a close fourth over 1100m here on September 28. He lost ground and worked home well that day. Respect.
No12 SUPER SNOB won her maiden two starts ago at Wangaratta. She was raised in class when finishing a sound fifth over 1400m at Flemington on September 27. She was blocked that day and worked home well. Rates here.
No6 SPANKS (BEST ROUGHIE) edged to a half-length win over 1400m here on September 28. She carried 57.5kg that day with Lain Riordan’s 1.5kg claim. Today she gets in on 56kg with Riordan again to ride from a superior draw in gate five.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 SPANKS
No1 SHERLOCK HOLMES (BEST BET) is an import from the high-flying stable of Robert Hickmott. He ran a great first-up fourth over 1800m at Caulfield on September 23. He lost ground that day but kept on working to the line. The son of Galileo gets a change of rider with Katelyn Mallyon on board for the first time at his third Australian start. He has won over 2615m and 2815m at home.
No7 GOLDEN FLAG is a lightly raced four-year-old showing plenty of upside and would respect.
No5 TUFF BICKIE is ready for the step up to 2400m with two solid starts over the middle-distance.
No3 KHEZERABAD Is an Irish import who is rock solid with two runs over this trip now.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 GOLDEN FLAG
SCRATCHED No8 AMADEUS looks primed to show his best here at his third start back from a spell. He gets top apprentice Beau Mertens to ride and chased steadily to finish sixth over 1100m at Flemington on September 27. Better around the bend here.
No6 RAMPAGE hung badly before finishing second over 1200m at Geelong on September 22. Was well liked at $4.80 that time and with Mitchell Aitken’s 1.5kg claim will carry 58.5kg – which is 1.5kg less. However the wide alley in 12 may be a setback.
No12 POPOVICH has been nominated but scratched since running a good trial when finishing second over 990m at Cranbourne on September 18. Wears winkers for the first time but the alley in 18 is disappointing. Each-way.
No5 KNOWABLE ran a steady fifth down the straight 1100m at Flemington on September 27. He is back around a bend here and with Liam Riordan’s 1.5kg claim will carry 58.5kg. He is a down a few notches here on his recent starts.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 KNOWABLE