Pakenham hosts Victoria’s provincial meeting for the gala Caulfield Guineas card, where a ten-race program of high grade races will be contested at The Heath today.
The weather should be cool with a maximum of 18C forecast after an overnight minimum of just 5C.
The day should be clear of rain and racing should be fair with a Soft 7 (Thursday) forecast and a good chance of an upgrade by race time. The false rail will be at the True Position.
QUADDIES (races 4,5,6,7)
Skinny Play: 2,3 – 2,5 – 11,12 – 2,7
Wide Play: 2,3,6,8 – 2,5,6,7 – 7,11,12,14 – 1,2,7,13
BEST BET: R5 – 2. GERSHOM
Next Best Bet: R6 – 11. ROSALEEN DUBH
Best Roughie: R4 – 8. CANOVA
No2 BENELLA Looks to have good claims here against her own sex judged on her last start third in a 2yo maiden over 1100m at Seymour on April 20. Stable jockey Matthew Allen rides from barrier seven and expect a bold showing fresh.
No7 MIDNIGHT CHARGE was making her debut over 975m in a maiden at Swan Hill, when finished strongly to run third on September 15. Jamie Mott replaces Dean Yendall here and would anticipate the extra distance will suit.
No4 DREAM ON GIRL was the target of strong support when she was backed from $13 into $5.50 before finishing ninth over 1000m in a maiden at Echuca on October 2. That was only her second start and is from the stable of top trainer Darren Weir.
No3 DANCING TYCOON is a nicely bred filly by leading sire Written Tycoon making her debut. She is from the leading stable of Mick Price and has drawn perfectly in gate four and has the experienced Jake Noonan to guide. Watch betting.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 DREAM ON GIRL
No12 FLASH CASH looks to have his hoof on the till and with Ethan Brown’s 1.5kg claim will be loaded on 54.5kg. He was raised in class and finished off well to claim fourth over 1200m at his last start at Caulfield on July 15. Goes well fresh.
No16 KISS THE BOSS has been placed at two of her three starts. She had her first look at the Geelong synthetic when she ran a distant third behind the bolter Seven Year Reward over 1000m on September 22. Strikes milder opposition here.
No5 SHOT AT THE REWARD has the pace to be prominent early and battled on well enough after being headed to hold down fifth in an 1100m maiden at Mildura on October 3. Has the experienced Jamie Mott to ride.
No9 RED GUCCI ran a great second on the synthetic here two starts ago before finishing a fair fourth over 1200m in a maiden at Ballarat on June 29. She gets comeback jockey dale smith to ride and strikes a moderate bunch fresh.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 SHOT AT THE REWARD
No11 FROSTY GREY still showing greenness by laying in. Had no luck when trapped deep and kept coming home finishing a solid third over 1400m at Wangaratta on September 19. That was only her second start and can improve.
No13 NOTHIN’ ON ME was backed into an odds-on favourite but disappointed her backers when finishing second in a 1200m maiden at Warracknabeal on September 2. She is a New Zealand import who can improve further.
No12 NORDIC POWER was a noticeable drifter in betting from $7 to $12 before finishing sixth over in a 2yo fillies’ maiden at Cranbourne on March 31. Did not finish too far adrift of the winner and with time to mature is worth a review.
No10 DASHING SAVANNA was drawing closer to the winner when running fourth over 1217m in a F&M maiden at Moe on September 29, That was on a bog track and gets superior ground here with Brian Higgins replacing Noel Callow.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 DASHING SAVANNA
No2 RYBOY has the ability to be perched on the speed and looms as a great chance on his win over 1100m in a maiden at Kilmore two starts ago and his last start good third over 1017m at Moe on September 25. Has appeal.
No3 PRESUMPTUOUS was backed from $9 into $6.50 before finishing a strong second over 1200m at Hamilton on October 6. The 5yo gelding is on the quick back up here, but his most recent efforts have been fair enough to warrant.
No6 CAPTAIN’S SON was involved in a busy finish when running a close third at cricket score odds over 1000m at Cranbourne on September 20. His prior form on the outer provincial tracks was fair. He has drawn on the rail and gets Jamie Mott to ride.
No8 CANOVA (BEST ROUGHIE) can be charging home. Has been freshened since his last start one-length fourth over 1000m at Casterton on September 10. He enjoys the short-course and gets experienced rider Andrew Mallyon to guide here.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 CANOVA
No2 GERSHOM (BEST BET) won his maiden at this track over 1200m in January. He had no luck from a wide gate when caught deep through out but worked home well to finish fourth 1170m at Echuca on October 2. He again must cross from 12 but he strikes moderate opposition and goes well at this distance too. Stable jockey Matthew Allen rides again.
No5 UNSHACKLED appears as the likely danger on his recent form on country tracks.
No6 NORDIC EXPRESS is lightly raced winning his maiden at his second start.
No9 FLORENCE previous form before going for a spell was rock solid.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 NORDIC EXPRESS
No11 ROSALEEN DUBH (NEXT BEST BET) has the blinkers coming off for her return to racing for the new season. Her connections thought high enough of her ability to take her to Adelaide where she was eased out of the Group 3 SA Oaks (2500m) at Morphettville on May 20. The distance suits her first-up and she strikes soft opposition here.
No12 GOT THAT SWING Has been freshened and worth respect in this field.
No9 BETTER STRIKE has a good record fresh and expect her to go well.
No5 SAARIM is a former NSW galloper and has the blinkers coming off here.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 SAARIM
No2 RILEY’S ROCKET has been most consistent on provincial tracks and is a winner at his sole start at this course. Latest he fought hard to the wire when running fourth over 1606m at Benella on September 29. Good chance from barrier six.
No3 SPRING ACTION has been honest without winning on provincial tracks and can play a role here on his last start third over 1980m at Tatura on September 23. The wide alley in 15 is the query, but he strikes mild opposition here.
No7 MANNING ROAD has a perfect record of one start for one win at this track. Latest she showed pace but faded to run ninth over 1755m at Geelong on October 4. She has a wide gate in 17 but has an accomplished rider in Andrew Mallyon.
No12 TRENDING HARD is a stayer resuming from a long spell and may sprint home strongly here in a mild field. He is lightly raced and with Zane Spain riding in good form could loom as a surprise packet at the finish.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 MANNING ROAD