The Everest: Runner-by-runner guide to the big race

Runner by runner analysis of the Everest 2017

Oddschecker
 | 
Thu, 12 Oct, 12:00 AM

 

This weekend, on October the 14th, Randwick plays host to the first running of the $10 million Everest.

 

The 1200m contest looks like a very open betting race on paper with some of the country’s (and the world’s) best sprinters going toe-to-toe for the $5.8 million winner’s purse.

 

Here we provide a runner-by-runner analysis.

 

Track:

 

With an 80% chance of 5-10mm of rain on the day and some predicted on the Friday, punters could be faced with a soft surface.

 

However, by race 8, the much important track pattern at Randwick will be evident and punters should be right to dive in.

 

Speed:

 

There should be very good speed injected into the race by the likes of Houtzen, Deploy and Redzel. Was confident Redzel and Deploy had the early toe to hold out Houtzen, however the filly has come up with the 1 barrier and will likely look to lead.

 

Redzel should sit on her outside with Deploy crossing in behind them (or using the 3 wide line) and Fell swoop, She Will Reign and Vega magic filling in the second and third pairs.

 

Redkirk Warrior, looks to have an option of kicking up along-side She Will Reign or taking the sit on the fence 3-4 pairs back with the hot speed. Tulip and Brave Smash look to map on Redkirk’s outside with English, Clearly Innocent and Chautauqua rounding out the field of 12.

 

 

Selections:

 

1. Vega Magic ($4.60)

2. Redkirk Warrior ($9.50)

3. She Will Reign ($5.50)

4. Redzel ($7.50)

 

Chautauqua

The grey flash resumed after an emphatic third TJ Smith win in good form. Clocking slick 32.66s final 600m and 21.79s final 400m over 1000m. His second up run probably left a bit to be desired with the gelding being asked the question a long way out and not responding like we’re used to seeing.

 

However, the Hawkes are noted grand final trainers and you can be assured he’s peaking for this. Third-up looks ideal and the chance of any rain does not burden his chances, nor does a hot tempo up front. The $6 currently on offer looks fair enough, won’t be leaving him out of any exotics.

Vega Magic

The Lope de Vega gelding is now into favouritism and looks fairly bomb proof. He maps very nicely from barrier 10 and is chasing 5 wins on the trot including 2 Group 1’s. His previous run was in the G1 Memsie where he recorded an almost effortless 1.75L win over Black Heart Bart. Love that he’s dropping back in distance to a hot 1200m off the freshen. He ticks all the boxes including 2 from 2 on soft going. Can’t be betting around.

Redzel

The Snitzel gelding is in the form of his life, with a recent record of 8:5-3-0 in his last two preparations. His two advantages are the map and his diversity in handling any track condition. His rain affected record reads 8: 3-2-1 including a G1 win in the Doomben 10,000 last prep. If the track is favouring those on speed, he would make a good each-way proposition.

Redkirk Warrior

Double figures for this gelding is well over the odds. The Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig camp have never been backwards in stating how high their opinion of this galloper is. He’s won out to 2020m and contested races such as the 1600m Doncaster last preparation so a strong 1200m is absolutely no issue. His two most recent runs over 1200m have been gap jobs in the G1 Newmarket and G2 Bobbie Lewis. He desperately needs good ground and could possibly find himself strung up on the fence. However at the odds, he’s a great each-way play.

Clearly Innocent

Unbeaten from 4 starts on rain effected ground, including a G1 Kingsford-Smith Cup at Eagle Farm. I do believe the track will need to be in the soft range to consider this gelding a solid winning hope. Especially considering he maps to get right back with English and Chautauqua. But if you’re one to take tips from jockey’s, Hugh Bowman has openly stated he’s extremely confident in a god run from this son of Not a Single Doubt.

Deploy

Not sure if there was an early market that even featured this galloper a few months ago. But he’s stormed into contention with two track-record breaking performances in his last two starts. One of which was over this track and distance in the G3 Toy Show County and the other a 4L romp at Rosehill over 1300m, beating the likes of Egg Tart and Euro Angel. If the track is favouring those on pace he’s a great each-way play.

Fell Swoop

On his best he’s right up to these at $51. However, his two runs back this preparation have been fairly disappointing. Finishing a 3.3L 8th of 11 and 2.1L 6th of 9 to In Her Time and Redzel respectively. He maps fine, handles soft ground and is prepared by a gun in Matt Dale. Scared that he’s past his best and see it hard for him to turn the tables on those that have beat him convincingly his past two. But there’s been far worse $51 shots go around.

Brave Smash

Interesting Japanese import who’s sticking to the 1200m despite showing he can run over much further at home. His first-up run was phenomenal closing strongly behind Vega Magic after there was an avalanche of money early for him. However, in his next two he’s started well into the red and gone under once to Bons Away and only just got the job done against El Divino the other. The blinkers will aid his chances but I can’t help feeling he’s looking for further than 1200m now.

English

Looked very good in running second last time out in the Shorts. She settled off the speed as is her pattern and rocketed home in 32.37s for the final 600m, but just couldn’t reel in the front runner, In Her Time. Relegated form the widest barrier, she’ll be at the tail of the field, so I’d want to see run on’s doing well earlier in the program before backing the mare. $12 is a solid price for a mare who’s proven at the top level.

She Will Reign

Resumed for her first run as a 3YO and produced an absolutely breathtaking win at the Valley in the G1 Moir Stakes. She looked to be off the bit and chasing from the tail some 600m out but reeled the field in, in about 200m to win on the post. She handles all conditions and looks to map very nicely in behind the speed. Only possible negative is that she looked a touch light in the yard at Melbourne, perhaps losing some weight on the way over. She’s almost drifted out to an each-way price at $5.50 and if this trend continues, she would be a brilliant bet.

Houtzen

Undoubtedly one of the top two-year-olds of her generation, with a phenomenal SP profile, starting favourite in the Golden Slipper and the McCewen first up as a 3YO. However, the two runs as the 3YO have left much to be desired. She had a torrid run in the McCewen, not finding the lead and sitting 3-wide without cover. Subsequently kicked up and lead (in faster times than she’s ever run) as a $1.35 favourite to out Mintha by 1L. Can see why she’d have admirers on the map, but $26 seems a fair price.

Tulip

A late addition for the Coolmore team after their international runner Caravaggio did not make the trip (much to the ATC’s dismay). She’s a quality 3YO, having started favourite her last two for a 4th to the flying Alizee and a 2nd to Roomooz. Her price reflects the fact that she’s un-tested against the open age sprinters. She’s not at the top of the 1200m pecking order for her own age group either. Barrier 11 doesn’t help and a placing would shock.  

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