Derby Day (Flemington) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Flemington. Today’s best bet is in race 8.
Melbourne Cup week starts today with the running of the Victoria Derby.
The Derby is a clash between the home-grown Victorians and the best colts and geldings from NSW.
An action day is assured with bountiful Group 1 and other Group races on the program. The other highlight is the running of the Group 1 Myer Classic for the fairer sex.
A hard day to find a stand-out and suggest to watch closely for betting trends. The rail is at the True Position with a Good 4 predicted. The day will be overcast but should remain fine.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8-9)
Skinny Play: 2,8 – 1,3,5 – 1,6 – 1,5
Wide Play: 2,3,8 – 1,3,5,6,7,11 – 1,6,10,13 – 1,2,5,9
BEST BET: R8 – 6. EGG TART
Next Best Bet: R5 – 6. JUKEBOX
Best Roughie: R1 – 8. PASEETO
R1 – 11.45pm. The Carbine Club Stakes – 1600m.
No8 PASEETO (BEST ROUGHIE) have been impressed by his winning form at Morphettville to claim two wins over 1300m and 1400m. Latest he scored an easy 1 length win over 1400m at Morphettville on October 21. Ace Adelaide jockey Jamie Kah rides at his Flemington debut. Can combat gate in 14.
No3 GAULOIS ran a good second over 1200m at Rosehill before posting a tearaway win over 1400m at Kembla Grange on October 14. He was a heavily backed favourite that day at $1.45 and Sydney ace Brenton Avdulla comes down to ride him at his Flemington debut.
No1 SNITZEPEG has put together two smart wins in a row. Latest he went to the line strong for a half-length win in the Listed Gothic Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on October 21. Craig Williams keeps the ride and he is again at an each-way price here.
No2 BEAU GESTE had a tough run when trapped three deep before finishing a sound seventh in the Gothic Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on October 21. He is a stablemate to Gaulois and was a Rosehill 1300m winner three starts ago. Top rider Damian Lane is on top.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 PASEETO
R2 – 12.20pm. G.H.Mumm Wakeful Stakes – 2000m.
No1 BRING ME ROSES is trained by Tony McEvoy and tipping him to have a strong hand in the first two races with Paseeto running in the opener. She was impressive at winning the Group 2 Edward Manifold (1600m) here on October 7. Can repeat the dose. Mark Zahra is the new rider.
No5 HIYAAM was well backed into $7.50 before running a good third to Pinot in the Group 3 Ethereal (2000m) at Caulfield on October 21. She won her maiden three starts ago and is only lightly-raced having four starts. Michael Dee keeps the ride and drawn well in gate three.
No6 RIMRAAM gave a strong run to finish second to Pinot in the group 3 Ethereal (2000m) at Caulfield on October 21. She broke her maiden status over 1750m at Geelong at her previous start and has finished inside the money at all of her six starts. Hot jockey Kerrin McEvoy is to ride.
No10 TEODORA was never on the track when finishing a workmanlike fourth in the Group 3 Ethereal (2000m) at Caulfield on October 21. She was the $5.50 favourite that time and had won at her prior two starts well in the provincials. She has only raced three times so there is upside.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 RIMRAAM
R3 – 1.00pm. Skip Sprint – 1100m.
No1 SHEIDEL gets a nice drop in class on her recent form in top company back against her own sex here. She has speed to burn and ran a close fifth to Super Cash in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes (1100m) at her last start at Caulfield on October 21. Ace Sydney rider Blake Shinn takes the mount.
No6 LYUBA found Fuhryk too strong in the Listed Alinghi (1100m) at Caulfield on October 21. The blinkers come off here and Damian Lane keeps the ride for leading trainer Darren Weir. She has the perfect record at Flemington with one start for one win and has appeal.
No2 SAVANNA AMOUR was a noticeable drifter in betting when finishing ninth in the Group 2 Tristarc (1400m) at Caulfield on October 21. She had won the Group 3 How Now (1200m) and the Group 3 Cockram (1200m) at Caulfield at her prior two starts. Pay to forgive.
No5 NIETA was caught deep before chasing well enough to run fourth to Fuhryk in the Listed Alonghi (1100m) at Caulfield on October 21. Her previous form in Sydney was rock solid in group class over the shorter sprints. She gets Winx’s jockey Hugh Bowman to ride here.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 LYUBA
R4 – 1.40pm. Lexus Stakes – 2500m.
No9 ALWARD is an open affair by the betting. This Chris Waller-trained stayer has won three of his past five starts and is in-form. Latest he ran a close second to Destiny’s Kiss in the Listed Tatt’s Cup (2400m) at Randwick on October 21. He was the $2.40 favourite that day and Kerrin McEvoy rides here.
No2 HARLEM had no luck in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) when finishing eighth to Boom Time on October 21. He was backed from $11 into $9 that time and he gets ace Melbourne rider Dwayne Dunn to ride here. Was a good winner of the Naturalism (2000m) three starts ago.
No1 ECUADOR was headed at the 250m but kept working to the line when finishing fourth to Adelaide stayer Balf’s Choice in the Seymour Cup (1600m) on October 22. The veteran stayer has won up to 2400m and the stable is in-form. Should get a cosy run on the pace from gate three.
No4 ALOFT is from the reigning Melbourne Cup winning yard of Robert Hickmott. He was a $4.20 favourite before finishing ninth in the Herbert Power (2400m) at Caulfield on October 14. Top jockey Ben Melham keeps the ride and ignore the last start as he got his tongue over the bit.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 ECUADOR
R5 – 2.25pm. Coolmore Stud Stakes – 1200m.
No6 JUKEBOX (NEXT BEST BET) liked his run from a four-week break to finish second to Formality in the Group 3 Blue Sapphire (1200m) at Caulfield on October 18. He has a great draw in three and top jockey Craig Williams again rides in what is an open betting market. Top showing.
No16 CATCHY ran a great third to Mighty Boss in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) on October 14. She is already Group 1-winning filly.
No10 EPTIMUM has won impressively at his past three starts. This is the bench test.
No15 HOUTZEN Classy Queensland filly who is better suited here than she was in The Everest.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 JUKEBOX
R6 – 3.05pm. Myer Classic – 1600m.
No16 SHOALS is a talented 3yo filly who ran second to Aloisia in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield on October 14. She is a Group 2 winner and faces older mares here but she gets a weight discount on 50kg and gets top light-weight rider Dean Yendall to guide.
SCRATCHED No15 COOL PASSION is a former Perth mare racing in fine form in Melbourne. She was beaten by Global Glamour in a bob of the heads in the Tristarc (1400m) at Caulfield on October 21. She won the Group 3 Northern Plume at her prior start at the same track. The stable is running hot too.
No2 GLOBAL GLAMOUR beat Cool Passion in a bob of the heads in the Group 2 Tristarc (1400m) at Caulfield on October 21 when fresh. Top Sydney rider Tim Clarke rides again and she is down 1.5kg to 57kg under the conditions of this Group 1 event. Goes well second-up too.
No8 DIXIE BLOSSOMS came along the fence to finish a solid fourth in The Nivison (1200m) at Randwick on October 21. She showed great dash to win a Group 2 1600m race at the same track at her previous start. Corey Brown takes over the reins here.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 DIXIE BLOSSOMS
R7 – 3.50pm. AAMI Victoria Derby – 2500m.
No5 MAIN STAGE looms as Victoria’s best chance to repel the NSW invaders. He ran a sound third to Cliff’s Edge in the Caulfield Classic (2000m) on October 21. He has yet to miss a place at six starts and is trained by the red hot Busuttin and Young team. Ready for the step up in distance.
No3 ASTORIA ran a good third to Weather With You in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last start on October 25. Won the Spring Stakes at Newcastle four starts ago and ran a top fifth in the Champion Stakes (2000m) at his penultimate start in Sydney. The winkers are off.
No11 OCEAN’S FOURTEEN has had a good lead up campaign into the Derby. He was beaten a head-bobber by Weather The Storm in the Geelong Classic (2200m) on October 25. The highly experienced Luke Nolen rides and he is now ready for this trip. Plenty of improvement in him.
No1 ACE HIGH is the Group 1 Spring Championship (2000m) at Randwick winner. He won the Group 3 Gloaming (1800m) two starts ago at Rosehill. He trained by the astute Sydney mentor David Payne and is by staying sire High Chaparral. He is drawn perfectly in gate three.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 OCEAN’S FOURTEEN
R8 – 4.35pm. Kennedy Mile – 1600m.
No6 EGG TART (BEST BET) is a dual Group 1 winner who ran a great seventh in the Toork (1600m) last start on October 21. She gets The Everest winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy replacing the suspended Damien Oliver. She goes very well second up with a win and a third at three starts and gets room from barrier 10. Can rebound into Group 1 glory.
No1 TOSEN STARDOM must carry top-weight on 58kg but is a class performer.
No10 SOVEREIGN NATION vying for a trip to Perth and expect to be dashing home.
No4 MCCREERY is a British import racing well. He is a genuine contender at long odds
VALUE RUNNER: No4 MCCREERY
R9 – 5.20pm. TAB Muliplier Stakes – 1200m
No1 ILLUSTRIOUS LAD showed plenty of courage in a dog fight with Super Cash to go down by the narrowest of margins in the Group 2 Schillaci (1100m) first-up at Caulfield on October 14. That was a fantastic effort and he is down a half-kilo to 58kg.
No2 KEEN ARRAY won the Group 2 Gilgai down the straight six here two starts ago. He then ran second under top-weight on 60kg in the Listed Caulfield Village (1200m) at Caulfield on October 18. He drops 2kg to 58kg here and regular rider Mark Zahra keeps the mount.
No5 FIRST AMONG EQUALS was a rock solid effort out wide at his first Caulfield start to run a close seventh to Super Cash in the Group 2 Schillaci (1100m) on October 14. He drops 2.5kg to 56kg and has missed a place only once at his five starts second-up.
No9 RAVI won the Group 3 Sheraco (1200m) at Rosehill in September 9. Latest she ran a close third in a busy climax in the group How Now (1200m) on September 23. She drops 2.5kg to 54.5kg and gets The Everest winning rider Kerrin McEvoy back riding.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 KEEN ARRAY