Rosehill (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Rosehill. Today’s best bet is in race 3
Rosehill for the big Derby Day support card. This is a day for some of the lesser known jocks to stand up with Sydney’s top 10 all away in Melbourne. We have 9 races on the card as usual and the weather in the lead up has been fine. Rail in true. Track good.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 3,4,7 - 6 - 2,5,11 - 3,13
Wide Play: 1,3,4,7 - 4,6,10 - 2,4,5,6,10,11 - 3,7,13
BEST BET: R3 – 2. TANGO RAIN
Next Best Bet: R4 – 6. BLACK ON GOLD
Best Roughie: R5 – 6. NEYLA’S GIRL
R1 – 12.05pm. Lack Group – West Tradies Plate - 1100m.
No3 HEMSTED has trialled well enough coming into the debut run here and gets a handy claim for Adkins. He ran through the line well enough in that trial and can only improve from that and should run well on debut.
No5 STUNTS was quite good on Everest Day and I am always partial to backing horses at their second start early in the season. He is bred to get out over 1400m being out of Aerobatics and he just needs a touch of luck from barrier 7 to be in the finish.
No4 NEUTRALITY is a brilliantly bred colt who has to be respected from the Snowden yard coming off a good trial at Wyong. He gets D Browne here and has proven to be a go to for the Snowden's over many years when he is called upon.
No2 CATANZARO did a good job in the two trials leading into the debut and wasn’t too bad there. The further the better for this colt and race experience is always a helper.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 CATANZARO
R2 – 12.40pm. CFMEU Mining Handicap - 1300m.
No7 UNFORGOTTEN won well upon resumption at Canterbury and looked as if he would have a lot of improvement to come from the yard there. It was hard not to be impressed by the way he wound them up in fast order. Bigger track and further suits.
No2 BEACON was a touch disappointing last start, but the step up in trip looks as if it will suit here and the trial between runs was quite good.
SCRATCHED No3 SPARKY LAD comes out of a very good form race last start behind Goodfella, who has since won again and is a chance in the Coolmore at Flemington. Scratched out of a race last week for this looks much more suitable on his home track and he should run well.
No8 REKINDLED FORCE has been very good in winning both starts and looks the likely leader here. He gets in with no weight after the claim for Adkins and if I was the connections I would suggest that he jumps and run them along.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 REKINDLED FORCE
R3 – 1.20pm AMWU Handicap - 1100m
No2 TANGO RAIN (BEST BET) should just be too fast for this lot even with the big weight. He is a horse who should be in Melbourne for the carnival and has probably just found the 1200m a touch too far in his last two. Back to where he ran sizzling time at the course and distance. From 7 Browne will jump, cross and be too fast.
No4 PICK ME UP should have won fresh and didn’t have the best of luck. Second-up he should run well.
No5 POMELO didn’t show her usual speed fresh and until she shows it, leave me out of her.
SCRATCHED No6 WAITANDWATCH is a very good horse who won all four races last time in, and has trialled in good style leading in.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 POMELO
R4 – 2pm. Turner Freeman Handicap - 1800m.
No6 BLACK ON GOLD (NEXT BEST BET) backs up after a fantastic run last week behind Interlocuter, and that form will be holding up quite well for the next month or so. He backs up and stays at the 1800m where he profiles quite well. The 53kg and gate 2 give him a perfect run on the map and KOH only needs a touch of luck upon straightening and this could be a gap job.
No5 COLLATERAL was quite good fresh, but jumps sharply in distance here, if that doesn’t push him out of his comfort zone he will run well.
No2 DARK EYES drops well in weight here after a good effort last week behind Black On Gold and Interlocuter. She should run well again.
No1 EMBLEY drops well in grade here after a solid effort last start in the Packer plate and should run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 DARK EYES
R5 –2.45pm. TAB Highway Handicap - 1200m.
No6 NEYLA’S GIRL (BEST ROUGHIE) finds herself on top her due to her win over Zonk last week, yeah she had a big SP there, but it is Wednesday back to highway. Barrier 14 shouldn’t be an issue as she can come across and ride the speed here.
No10 TIGER BY THE TALE is going to be the big closer here and resumes in what looks to be a target race. Williams’s team has started to fire in recent times and he needs to be respected when he brings one to town especially in this grade.
No1 REALING resumes here for M Dunn and comes out of what was a very good race last start in the QLD Guineas and wasn’t too far off them then. The trial coming in wasn’t too bad and if he can sprint well fresh he could figure here.
No3 I AM CAPITAN will appreciate getting to the 1200m here after the flashing light run last start behind She Knows. He seemed to be floundering up the straight and then knuckled down late and flew. Hard track could well suit better.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 NEYLA’S GIRL
R6 – 3.25pm. The Lidoran Group Handicap - 1800m.
No7 MORNINGTON gets thrown in on spec here first up for Waller bringing solid enough form to the race from the UK. He has been gelded and has come into this with no trial which is interesting. Watch the betting moves. If money comes he will run well.
No4 CARZOFF had no luck when resuming in Brisbane and now comes down to Sydney for his second-up run. He rises sharply in distance from 1350m to the 1800m, but he has always looked a stayer. If he is fit enough he can win this.
No3 IMPAVIDO just missed last start when being wide throughout and was touched off in the last stride. From gate 10, I think he goes back in the run here and comes at them with one withering run at them, he needs to show me he has that killer instinct still.
No1 MORTAR PLATOON won that race last start and got the perfect run in the race. With the claim he gets down to 58kgs here, and he looks to have found his form and needs to be given his chance again.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 MORNINGTON
R7 – 4.10pm. Blacktown Workers Handicap - 1100m.
No6 SLOW BURN would be my third best bet of the day here if I was to have one, the only negative I have for her is the jockey change with Clark off and McDougall on. She should be much fitter after having to do some work in both runs this time in. The claim helps and from gate 7 she can jump and rum them along here.
No2 IN TIMES OF WAR is a non-winner, but will keep looming up as she always does without winning. She gets a soft run on the map again and will be a must for the exotics.
No4 ANATOLA changes stables here and has always had a touch of a boom on her ever since her debut, maybe the change of scenery will help spark her up.
SCRATCHED No10 MA TANTE resumes here and has trialled in nice enough order coming into this. Some of her form is quite good.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 ANATOLA
R8 – 4.55pm. Bradford Soundscreen Handicap - 1200m.
No5 HANDFAST has the ability there, but has not shown it for quite some time. I like the trials coming into this and that Cummings has had him in his care for the full preparation. The senior jockey will be able to stand over him and get into him when its needed.
No11 MY COUNTRY won well last start at Rosehill, but gets off the wet track here which is a touch of an issue for mine as she has never shown her best on good going in the past, but now that she is back in form I am willing to give her a chance on good ground.
No2 ISORICH just has to be thrown in on his recent form. He is low flying and will keep going around at big odds and when he knocks you off, you look at the form wondering why he wasn’t in your exotics. Just throw him in.
No10 MAGIC ALIBI may need it a bit wetter than what it is, but gets the softest of runs on the map with no weight on her back. The form around her is quite good and she has to be respected.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 HANDFAST
R9 – 5.40pm. Bradford Solar Handicap - 1400m.
SCRATCHED No3 NEW UNIVERSE will hope to have improved his manners from his first-up run, he is a highly strung animal who does a lot wrong in the pre parade and when he is on his way to the gate and it may well have cost him the race fresh. Hopefully that run has knocked the freshness out of him. He is a talent.
No13 SIREN’S FURY comes out of a very good race last start behind White Moss and drops well in grade here. That form should hold up quite well in a race such as this, and with a good run on the map here she can definitely figure in the finish.
No7 HIGH MIST backs up quickly from a good race last weekend and that form should hold up well, not at all sure why he stays at 1400m again. But I am not one to doubt Waller. The claim down to 54kgs is much more suitable here and no shock to see him finish over the top.
No2 GAMBLESTOWN comes out of that same race as High Mist last start and finished off quite well there. I love the back up and the positive jockey change here as Hutchings is in good form and always gives it his all.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 GAMBLESTOWN