Horses to Follow – Saturday 4th November 2017
Two more winners on Derby day came from our black book and we’ve found a $201 chance in the Derby worth following as well as an Australian debutant from Rosehill.
Last Week’s Black Book Runners:
Levendi: Flemington Race 1 – 1st ($4):
Bottled up for much of the straight but charged late to score when he saw daylight. Convinced he would’ve won by further with a better run. Keen moving forward.
Harlem: Flemington Race 4 – 6th ($4):
Very disappointing. Didn’t do it tough in the run, loomed up then went backwards in the straight. An eye infection prior to the race was obviously not ideal, but I’ll be dropping off now.
Dracarys: Flemington Race 5 – 6th ($41):
Ran out of his skin at big odds for his first time down the straight. Will be keen on following him back down in grade with straight racing now in his repertoire.
Eptimum: Flemington Race 5 – 12th ($17):
Huge rise in grade and first time down the straight were obvious queries. Probably just better controlling races around a bend. Not giving up.
Catchy: Flemington Race 5 – 18th ($7.50):
Not convinced 1200m is her best distance, nor straight racing her best set-up. None the less still disappointing. Not sure where to from here, but one more against the mares before letting her go.
Shoals: Flemington Race 6 – 1st ($4.80):
Given a great ride by Dean Yendall, sitting outside the speed. Slipped away with the 50kg inside the straight and just held on. Been a great horse to us, can’t drop off.
Dixie Blossoms: Flemington Race 6 – 3rd ($12):
Bottled up in the straight and charged late to miss by 0.2L at great each-way odds. Given clear running she would’ve won. This was her grand final, keen for the Autumn if she races on.
Foxplay: Flemington Race 6 – 5th ($10):
Settled back on the outside of Dixie Blossoms. Took some time to wind up in the straight once pulled to the outside of Now Or Later, worked through her gears late and was powering at the finish. Want to see her at 2000m before giving up.
Sense Of Occasion: Flemington Race 8 – 9th ($101):
Given his triple-figure SP, he was OK late from the back without ever looking a chance. Only backing if wet and out in distance 1800-2000m.
Ravi: Flemington Race 9 – 4th ($8):
Solid enough without threatening up along the inside for 4th. Suggesting she’s better around a bend, never showing her turn of foot today. Still following.
Collateral: Rosehill Race 4 – 5th ($8):
Unwanted in betting, opening under $4 and drifting to $8 and ran accordingly. Finishing well back in 5th, beaten 5L. No excuses on face value, perhaps just flat second-up up 400m after sprinting well fresh. Giving one more.
This Week’s Black Book Runners:
Mornington: Rosehill Race 6 – 3rd ($13):
Quality Australian debut by this import now under the care of Chris Waller. Forced to do all the donkey work in dragging the field up to the well-backed ($14-$3.75) leader Victime De L’Amour rounding the turn. Got a run off the leader’s back and one fought on to the line gamely without ever looking a real winning chance.
What was particularly impressive was the way this lightly raced 5YO kept coming to hold off Impavido for third, who with 300m to go looked like going straight past him. His best record is on top of the ground and at 2000m+ in the UK, so the upcoming summer cups could be right up his alley.
Where to Next? BM80 2000m+
Wolf Tone: Flemington Race 7 – 7th ($201):
Punters and bookies gave him no chance of winning the G1 Victorian Derby, sending the colt out at odds of $201. He defied this SP and ran a very credible race into 7th. Snagged back to last from barrier 17, the race was not run to suit by the leaders walking up front. Jye McNeil then swung him out to be the widest running in the straight, only hit top gear over the last 200m and was right on the heels of the place getters.
2500m is obviously no issue and he’s avoided the handicapper running 7th. Should be some very winnable races coming up for this 3YO in the coming months. Long term goal could be a race like the SA Derby, but he might even be able to continue mixing it at the top grade.
Where to Next? 3YO 2000m+. Long term SA Derby.