2017 Kennedy Oaks Runner-by-Runner Analysis

The highlight of day 3 of the Flemington carnival is the 2017 Kennedy Oaks, here’s our runner-by-runner guide.

Oddschecker
 | 
Wed, 8 Nov, 12:24 AM

 

The Track:

 

The Flemington track has held up tremendously for the first two days of the carnival. Winners predominantly coming from the inside portion of the track in the circle races. With the rail position yet to be announced, it might be a bit of guess work, however by race 8 of the third day, perhaps the middle of the track will be the place to be.

 

The Map:

 

Pinot should find the lead quite easily from barrier 6 with Rimraam kicking up on its outside from barrier (the widest) 12. Hiyaam should also be prominent drawing alongside Pinot.

 

Aloisia and Luvaluva could make their way across from the outside to slot in mid-field with Sweet Mischief and Circuleight holding positions from the inside.

 

Sitting off-pace comes Bring Me Roses, Four Koalas and Lucky Louie in a tough spot. Brining in the rear will be Miss Admiration and Reliable Dame.

 

 

The Runners:

 

Aloisia - $1.70:

 

$1.70 is a hard price to steam into for any 3YO filly going over 2500m, but this girl certainly deserves her short quote. Storming away from the boys last start over 2040m in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase to win by 3.5L in a canter. This came after her victory in the 1000 Guineas over 1600m, defeating subsequent G1 winner Shoals by 1.25L (when not even out to her ideal trip!). 

 

On top of some stellar form, she’s shown immense improvement in the yard at each start this preparation. Has to be the one to beat, a really exciting filly moving forward.

 

Luvaluva - $8:

 

Progressing very nicely through a long and carefully placed first preparation for John Sargent – a known expert with 3YO fillies. Has come into her own off the nice platform run in the G1 Flight Stakes over 1600m three runs back, subsequently splitting Sambro (who’s since come out and run well last weekend) and thehighly spruiked Kaonic over 1600m and then winning over 2000m in the Wakeful at Group 2 level – a solid lead up.

 

Tough filly on the quick back up. Looks like she’s a real grinding type who’ll relish the trip. Must go in all exotics.

 

Bring Me Roses - $26:

 

Was an emphatic winner of the G2 Edward Mainifold two starts back over 1600m, where she rounded the field up beautifully and beat Hiyaam by 2.25L on the line. Last time out was a different story. Starting the $4.80 favourite and failed to produce her finishing burst over the 2000m. She was wide without cover here and did pull up with issues. Could easily forgive.

 

If you can trust she’ll get the distance and forgive last start, she’s right in the mix for the placings.

 

Pinot - $7:

 

Overcame the wide gate last start to score nicely. Eventually crossing to the lead, she was rolling out in front for most of the 200m journey and just kept going to keep all chasers at bay by 1.8L. Prior to this run she dominated a field at Flemington over 1800m by 3.8L in a traditional early lead-up race. She got caught in behind the leader there but exploded when given clear air.

 

Maps to take the lead again and should give a huge sight. Has to go in all exotics.

 

Rimraam - $18:

 

Had the absolute perfect run in transit last start, eventually finishing behind Luvaluva. She only went down by 0.3L there but seemed to be weakening at the end of the 2000m. It was revealed post-race that she was galloped on, so perhaps that 0.3L margin could’ve been even smaller. Prior to this she was 1.75L behind Pinot given every chance.

 

Looks to get a nice run from the outside gate again with minimal speed in the race. Place claims.

 

Hiyaam - $26:

 

Another that looks to map nicely up on speed and receive a dream run. However, on form she’s finished 4th behind both Luvaluva (1.55L) and Rimraam (1.25L) at her latest in the Wakeful and 3rd behind Pinot (2.75L) and Rimraam (1L) in the Ethereal over 2000m. Comes into this contest with a great platform (two 2000m runs) to get the 2500m.

 

Run in all the right lead-ups and maps well. Find it hard to see her turning the tables here.

 

Lucky Louie - $101:

 

Comes into this through the same races as Hiyaam, where she was beaten by 6.2L in the Wakeful and 5.5L in the Ethereal. She did finish off nicely in the Ethereal after settling back close to last in the run. Didn’t finish off the race in the same fashion in the Wakeful, just holding her place in the straight as Luvaluva went straight past her.

 

Could make a case that the $101 is overs if the Wakeful was a flattener on the back of a good performance, but I doubt she’ll be in the finish.

 

Reliable Dame - $17:

 

Most intriguing runner of the field, bringing the different form lines. Two runs back she won like an odds-on pop, mowing down the field from last in a Ballarat maiden over 1600m at no less than $26. Then subsequently produced a similar performance in the Geelong Classic against the boys, motoring home from last as the widest runner to grab 4th by 2.2L. Form out of that race held up soundly in the Derby with Astoria running a nice race into 3rd.

 

Will go right back and run on. 2500m and Flemington should suit, good place chance.

 

Sweet Mischief - $91:

 

Was solid in the 3YO fillies race over 1800m at Flemington behind Pinot finishing 3rd, beaten 3.85L. Could easily make a case that the margin should’ve been far closer, after she was held up badly then strog to the line once given clear running. She took on the boys last start in the Ladbrokes Classic at Moonee Valley over 2000m and finished a long way off in 7th. Was hard ridden a long way out there and didn’t produce much.

 

Price is fair off her effort last time in. Find it hard to see her in the finish.

 

Circuleight - $151:

 

Another one at big odds who looks a bit out of her depth. Has raced in maiden company in 4 of her 5 career starts. The outlier was when she stepped out at Flemington over 1800m behind Pinot and Sweet Mischief. She made no impression here after getting too far back, beaten 8.15L. Most recently she was seen running 2nd in a Seymour maiden by 1.75L, given every chance sitting behind the leader in the run.

 

It’s a no from me.

 

Miss Admiration - $201:

 

The roughie of the small field. Has been beyond the 1600m in three career starts. The first of which was in Saturday grade over 1800m behind Anchor Bid where she was badly held up behind those going backwards, but still made up ground late. Second was a grinding effort for 4th in a seemingly low race at Donald before finishing 13th of 16 in last weekend’s Wakeful. She’s a big strong filly who’ll suit the quick back-up and extra 500m. Will be plugging away right at the end.

 

Physically she’s a cracking type who’s taking a while to put it all together. Could do something at insane odds.

 

Selections:

 

Hard to extract value out of a field deservedly dominated by Aloisia. Would be looking to stand her out in exotics. The absolute roughie of the field goes in as a pure speculator on type.

 

Aloisia: $1.70

Pinot: $7

Luvaluva: $8

Miss Admiration: $201

 

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