Oaks Day (Flemington) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Flemington. Today’s best bet is in race 8.
Today sees the running of the $1 million VRC Oaks (2500m) at Flemington.
It is a tough affair for the three-year-old fillies who are fully stretched out to 2500m for the first time in their careers.
The winner generally comes from fillies' in their second preparation and through last Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes (2000m).
Aloisia is an outstanding filly and she deserves her white-hot price after her authoritative win in the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) and the Thousand Guineas (1600m) this spring. Sunny skies should prevail and the track is rated as a Good 3.
The other highlight is the all greys race (Race 3) which is most popular with punters and spectators.
QUADDIES (races 6,7,8,9)
Skinny Play: 2,3 – 2,4 – 1 – 1,5,7
Wide Play: 2,3,5,7 – 2,4,6,7 – 1,2,4,6 – 1,2,4,5,7
BEST BET: R8 – 1. ALOISIA
Next Best Bet: R6 – 3. BADAJOZ
Best Roughie: R7 – 4. BLACK SAIL
R1 – 12.15pm. Drinkwise Plate – 1700m.
No16 SWORN EVIDENCE is a lightly raced filly with plenty of upside. She ran a solid fifth over 1400m at Caulfield on October 21. That was her fourth start and she did not hit top gear until the end of the race. The extra distance here looks ideal for her and strong claims.
No14 LINGUIST scored a flawless four length win over 1600m against her own sex at Ballarat on October 26. Top jockey Linda Meech keeps the mount and she only goes up a kilo to 57.5kg here. She processes the speed to overcome an unfavourable draw in gate 12.
No1 THAT RINGS A BELL has been racing in blistering form with two strong wins under her belt. Latest she scored a smart five length win over 1600m against her own sex at Ballarat on October 26. Ben Melham replaces the suspended Damien Oliver and goes up 2kg to 60kg.
No8 I’M A PRINCESS has strong South Australian form with two wins and two seconds at seven starts. Ace Adelaide rider Jamie Kah rides today replacing Jason Holder who rode her to run second to over 1600m at Morphettville on October 14. Fully fit now and respect.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 I’M A PRINCESS
R2 – 12.55pm. Twitter Trophy – 1800m.
*SCRATCHED* No1 ODEON drops a half-kilo to 59.5kg here on his last start win over 1700m at Caulfield on October 18. Chris Symons keeps the ride and she is again well drawn in gate three. His record is excellent with five wins and three placings at 15 starts. She has a lot to attract.
No2 VON TUNZELMAN is a New Zealand galloper making his Australian debut. He comes here with strong form after posting a clever win over 1600m at Te Rapa on October 23. Hot Sydney jockey Blake Shinn will ride from barrier two and the stable is astute. Makes good appeal.
No9 EBEDIYIN has won or been placed at three of his past four starts. Latest he was a $2.80 favourite when running second to Jolie’s Cafe over 1600m at Moonee Valley on November 3. He is on the quick back up but likes this distance and is trained by the great Darren Weir.
No6 CAPTAIN DUFFY has been sweeping all before him in Adelaide. Claimed his second win on the trot at Morphettville when gamely beating Silent Warrior over 2043m on October 28. Noel Callow replaces a 3kg apprentice here and looks value at $15.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 CAPTAIN DUFFY
R3 – 1.35pm. Off The Track Subzero Handicap – 1400m.
No11 BORD DE GAIN was second-up when ran a sound sixth over 1200m at Geelong on October 25. Bumped and had a tough run that day and will take benefit. Has been placed at his sole start at this track two starts ago. This is his third run back from a spell and is cherry ripe.
No6 SILVERA won at Morphettville and Flemington before finishing a sound third over 1700m here on October 18. He was the $4 favourite that day. He drops a kilo to 56.5kg and Jamie Kah keeps the ride. He is well drawn in gate six and a good chance in an open race.
*SCRATCHED* No2 DEJA BLUE returns to Flemington from a fighting win over 1200m at Geelong on October 25. She was at double figure odds that day and is again at lucrative odds at $18 here. That was only her third start back from a spell and she has won at this track. Likes this distance.
No10 CHALK earned his trip south from Sydney with a good win over 1200m at Randwick two starts ago. Latest he battled on well to run a close third over 1200m at Randwick on October 28. Has an excellent record of two wins and two placings at seven starts. Keep safe.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 DEJA BLUE
R4 – 2.15pm. Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final – 1600m.
No2 NIGHT’S WATCH qualified for his final with a win over 1400m at Bendigo on November 1. He was backed into a $2.40 favourite that time and was racing second-up. Has won at four of his nine starts and is from the Darren Weir camp. Looks a good chance in a wide market.
No3 EMOJI has finished in the minor money at all three of his four starts this campaign. Latest he ran a good third over 1500m at Geelong on October 25. He was trapped four deep and had to work hard last time out as a $3.90 favourite so would give another chance here.
No8 MANDALAY BAY earned his stripes for this final with a strong win over 1600m at Ballarat on October 12. He was backed into a $23.80 favourite that day when winning narrowly. He gets a 4kg drop in weight to 56kg and is drawn perfectly in gate seven. Has admirers.
No10 BARRY THE BAPTIST had to dig deep and won well on the line over 1600m at Hamilton on October 29. The win saw him qualify for this final and his form at three starts this campaign has been reliable on country tracks. Drops a kilo to 55kg here.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 BARRY THE BAPTIST
R5 – 2.55pm. TCL TV Stakes – 1400m.
No1 ULMANN flourished home to win the Group 3 Moonga Stakes 91400m) at Caulfield on October 21. He carried 56.5kg that day and goes to 58kg here in milder company. Top rider Damian Lane keeps the ride and this is his third start back from a spell. Can improve further.
No2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND is from the high flying Waterhouse-Bott yard. He ran a great second over 1400m at Randwick to earn a ticket here on October 28. Posted four wins in a row at his last campaign and he gets top Melbourne apprentice Beau Mertens to ride here.
No5 HELLOVA STREET has been placed at his two starts this campaign. Latest he ran a strong second to Miss Gunpowder over 1200m at Moonee Valley on October 27. He has won once at two starts at this track and has an outstanding record at this distance. Has appeal.
No10 FOX HALL has won and been placed second twice at his three starts this campaign. Latest he ran a close second to Black Sheep over 1500m at Moonee Valley on October 27. He was backed into a $1.65 favourite that night. Loves this distance but having first run at Flemington.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 FOX HALL
R6 – 3.35pm. Absolut Stakes – 1000m.
No3 BADAJOZ (NEXT BEST BET) won two on end before suffering ill luck when running third over 955m at Moonee Valley on October 28. He was a firm $3 favourite that day and was locked up down the home stretch getting clear inside the last 50m. He drops 2kg to 56kg and Kerrin McEvoy keeps the ride. He has the speed to be prominent and can make amends here.
No2 BALL OF MUSCLE is a noted speedball who will relish this distance and would respect.
No4 SHAF likes this distance and looms with each-way claims here.
No5 CRYSTAL DREAMER has a good record down the straight here and worth putting in the exotics.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 CRYSTAL DREAMER
R7 – 4.15pm. Seppelt Wines Stakes – 1800m
No15 SWEET VICTORY is a 3yo filly who smashed her rivals by 6.67 lengths in a 1500m maiden at Hawkesbury on October 26. That may have been a maiden but she did the job with authority and it was only her third start. She gets top Sydney jockey Tim Clark to steer here.
*SCRATCHED* No6 IRISH VEGA ran a strong third in the Group 3 Carbine Stakes (1600m) here on November 4. He is on the fast back up today but strikes easier opposition. He has won and been placed third at his three starts, His sectionals were strong and must respect here.
No2 SAMBRO is from the top stable of Chris Waller and is on the quick back up after running a close second in the Carbine Stakes (1400m) at Flemington last Saturday. He refused to surrender and fought hard to the wire. He stays on 56kg and gets Hugh Bowman as his new rider here.
No4 BLACK SAIL (BEST ROUGHIE) gave a good sight when at double figure odds to run a strong second to Temple Of Bel over 1600m at Caulfield on October 18. The stable is on fire and Damian Lane retains the ride. He drops 1,5kg to 56kg and has plenty of upside to him.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 BLACK SAIL
R8 – 5.00pm. Kennedy Oaks – 2500m.
No1 ALOISIA (BEST BET) at $1.55 is better than bank interest. She looks a special on her win against the boys in the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) on October 28. She licked them well and she won the Group 1 Thousand guineas (1600m) against her own age and sex in good style two starts ago. The distance does not look to worry and is hard to beat.
No2 LUVALUVA won the Wakeful last Saturday and that race has been a great form guide.
No4 PINOT has abundant speed and is expected to be the front-runner here. Also has class.
No6 HIYAAM kept on plugging away in the Wakeful. She is now fit and will be in the finish.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 HIYAAM
R9 – 5.45pm. Kennedy Plate – 1100m.
No5 DEMERARA has won at three of her four starts. Latest she suffered her first defeat when finishing third over 1200m at Moonee Valley on October 28. She was backed into a $1.90 favourite that day and will be out to make amends. Better suited here.
No7 SMART COUPE was a firm $3.30 favourite before finishing a sound third to Sam’s Image over 1000m at Moonee Valley on October 27. That was her first defeat at three starts and it was her first start back from a spell. Expect her to be much sharper here second-up.
No4 JORDA did not obtain a clear passage in the listed Crockett (1200m) when running sixth to Blondie at Moonee Valley on October 27. She has had a start down the straight here and gets Sydney ace Hugh Bowman to ride from gate two. Looks ready for this race.
No1 DEBONAIRLY appears fully primed for this first-up start with two Sydney trials under her belt. She posted a close win over 1050m at Rosehill on September 25 at her final trial. She beat highly talented Global Glamour that day. Has won at three of her five starts. Has excellent claims.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 JORDA