Horses to Follow – Saturday 18th November 2017
An unbeaten 2yo on the rise and a quality 3YO crying out for the mile join our black book this week, having found a $10 winner at Sandwon last weekend.
Last Week’s Black Book Runners:
Savvan – Rosehill Race 2: 6th ($5):
Flat run after a close-up finish last time out. Made up some ground on a day where it was difficult to do so. Hasn’t won below 1550m, worth giving her one more at the mile.
Collateral – Rosehill Race 3: 10th ($11):
Post-race vet examination revealed no abnormalities after a very poor performance. Jockey suggested a strong tempo and firm track may not have suited. Not enough to make up the 11.1L beaten margin for mine. Will be spelled now. Want to see him first-up next time in before backing again.
Heavenly Anna – Rosehill Race 7: 4th ($21):
Good return over the 1200m after 19 weeks off. She’s still an awkward walker and will appreciate any sting out of the ground second-up at 1400m – a distance where she won over smart enough galloper Dagny second-up last time. Following.
Kinsachi – Rosehill Race 9: 6th ($12):
Made good ground from the tail over the 1100m. Her record on rain-effected ground is far superior, will be keen to follow her with some sting outstepping up slightly to the 1200m.
Jungle Edge – Sandown Race 4: 1st ($10.40):
Finally got some sting out of the ground and produced yet another gutsy front-running win. Ridden to perfection by Forrester, not going too hard up-front to record some sound late sections. If the rain stays we’ll be staying with this bloke.
Burning Front – Sandown Race 4: 5th ($8):
He was very easy late in betting, showing perhaps he had a light week after his gut buster last time out. Given this he ran soundly in for 5th beaten only 2L. Believe he can bounce off this sharply and it could be an all chips in scenario next time out.
Land Of Plenty – Sandown Race 5: 4th ($5.50):
Didn’t look as good as he had done in the parade last time out and never looked a real threat in for 4th, just over 2L behind the winner. Think he’ll be tipped out now. Dropping off.
Duke Of Brunswick – Sandown Race 5: 6th ($16):
Proving tough to catch. Never looked like troubling the scorers, but that wasn’t too far under market expectation. Saying he’s a bit of an enigma and dropping off now.
Big Duke – Sandown Race 7: 3rd ($2.70F):
Well-beaten into 3rd by over 5 lengths. Always tough backing up after a solid showing over 3200m – likely just come to the end of another good preparation. Keen to see him next time in.
Oregon’s Day – Sandown Race 10: 3rd ($19):
Solid showing at a big each-way price. Settled much closer in third, three-wide on the soft speed. Probably doesn’t show the same turn of speed from there and was some 2.8L off the winner. Sitting on the fence a bit with this mare and keeping her on-side for now.
This Week’s Black Book Runners:
Heliosphere – Rosehill Race 1: 3rd ($5):
The well-bred son of Sebring just found the 1200m a touch too sharp first-up as a 3YO. Settled back last in the small field of 6, pealed out the widest and was asked the question some way from home. He responded well, but took a while to get through his gears. Was rocketing on the line and recorded the fastest final 600m of the day.
Looks to have matured nicely after the 18 weeks off and will derive plenty of benefit from this run. If Gerald Ryan keeps him up, he’ll be winning very soon. Might not get any special odds however.
Where To Next? BM70 over 1400m (3YO restricted or open age). 1600m does look his distance once fit.
Long Leaf – Sandown Race 1: 1st ($4):
Have plenty of time for this 2YO moving forward. Was some stable confidence around him for his first start in Adelaide when he rocketed late to just score on the line. Looked better physically racing back in Victoria. Took up a nice forward position before suffering a severe mid-race slow down (almost 3L). Despite this, the Fastnet Rock colt, found plenty in the straight to fight off challenger and well-backed favourite Oohood ($3.20).
The Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig stable have identified the Karaka millions as a possible race for the pricey colt moving forward. He’d go awfully close in an event of that nature and could even be a player come the Blue Diamond.
Where To Next? 2YO over 1200m.