Rosehill for Festival Stakes day in the final lead up for the Villiers and yet another meeting at Rosehill, the track has been playing quite well as of late and all horses have been getting their best chance. The rail is out 3m which is the best rail position at Rosehill and with some rain around, we will probably be on soft going.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 4 - 4,9 - 12 - 6,8
Wide Play: 4,7 - 4,9,10 - 2,5,12 - 6,7,8,12
BEST BET: R6 – 4. SAVAPINSKI
Next Best Bet: R8 – 12. GLENALL
Best Roughie: R3 – 1. VASSAL
No1 RHEINGAU was quite good on debut over the track and distance and he brings to this the race experience and fitness that he has over these other horses. 1100m is a different world to young horses and now that he has had the run he looks hard to beat.
No8 MISS INVINCIBLE has been trialing up in brilliant order and if this race was over the 1000m I would have her well on top here. But taking on the 1100m on debut has me a touch worried. She looks to be a push button horse and has her chance here.
No5 TOULOUSE has trialled up in good order leading into the debut run here and looks to be a nice colt in the making, I like that Shinn is jumping on board here and Payne doesn’t like to rush his early 2yos and that it is running should be respected.
No4 SILENT AGENDA gets the winkers on for debut and has improved with each trial coming into the debut run here. He comes out of the Plauge Stone trial before doing a very nice job at Randwick two weeks ago. He has had the trip away from home to trial at Canterbury and that holds him in good stead.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 TOULOUSE
No1 CURDLED was quite good first up in a race which wasn’t run to suit him and he really ran through the line in good fashion there. The step up to 1200m is going to suit here and we saw how well Bon Amis ran last start which helps with the confidence leading in.
No6 EPIDEMIC won a good race on Melbourne Cup day where we have seen the form hold up already with Seaway winning since. He was strong on pace there and looks to get the on pace favours yet again here. He looks to have good upside.
No8 LISDOONVARNA comes out of what looks to be a hot race last start behind Marble who I am a big fan of, the step up in trip to the 1200m looks to be much more suitable, as he trotted in over that distance, albeit at Nowra, two runs back.
No5 WHYPEEO is down to run Friday night too and at time of writing, the indication is that he will run on Friday which will give us big deductions here if so. If he runs here he wins, basically wherever you see him, back him.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 LISDOONVARNA
No1 VASSAL (BEST ROUGHIE) is the set up horse here having run and won last start over the 2400m, and there is no better lead up for a race like this than a race over 2400m as horses have gone through that needed pain barrier. He drops 1kg after the claim here and should run well again.
No3 IMPERIAL AVIATOR just missed last start when resuming and was nothing short of brilliant there. I see no reason as to why he cannot improve yet again, I just wish that he'd had one more start over 2000m before tackling a 2400m race as he may be lacking in match practice a touch.
No2 DOUKHAN will be hoping that it keeps on raining this week as when he gets his toe into the ground he gains lengths. He carried the big weight last start when winning and drops 3kgs for that effort. There is no reason as to why he cannot win again.
No5 GREAT GLEN comes out of the same race as Vassal last start and was solid enough going through the line there. Now that he has had the proper lead up run, he looks to be well set up to run well with Glyn on board here.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 VASSAL
No2 VOLPE gets a race run to suit second-up from a spell here and wasn’t too bad when finding the line well fresh. He is going to need further in time, but there is good speed engaged here and I do think he is better than highway grade and at the price you need to be on.
No7 TAKOOKACOD made a long sweeping run when winning at Gundagai on their showcase meeting day. The form out of the run two back at Corowa where they ran track record time has been utterly brilliant, and you normally never say that about Corowa form. She is well weighted after the claim.
No12 STAR ASPIRATION was just picked off last start by Equal Balance. She was ridden brilliantly by Glyn there and finds a race with much more pressure here, but her record this time in is one that shouldn’t be ignored.
No13 BEL DIABLO gets a good jockey change here with Collett going on board, after a tame effort in the saddle from an inexperienced rider last time out. His form is quite good and rates a chance now.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 TAKOOKACOD
No2 REDOUBLE has been brilliant in winning the last two runs where the form has held up quite well. He was three wide no cover last start and still got the job done, the step up in distance looks to be quite suitable and with Shinn jumping off a few others to ride this I need to respect it.
No6 SEDANZER won in brilliant fashion first-up. She was backed early and then got out to $6.00 late in the market before charging through the line and getting the job done. She steps up in grade here and is 2/2 second-up from a spell, I have to be with her here given how she won.
No5 COSMIC ENGINE loses Shinn here but gains Angland which isn’t all bad, but considering that Shinn jumps off for his main danger I have to look elsewhere. For the positives, he gets a great run on the map here and looks really well set up for a booming run third-up.
No3 PELORUS JACK up in distance is much more suited here than he was last start when dropping back in distance which was a weird option. Now that he is third-up to a distance which is much more suitable he should run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 PELORUS JACK
No4 SAVAPINKSI (BEST BET) just flogged them last start in the Matriarch which was Group 2 at Flemington and she comes back to a Listed race at Rosehill, yet she carries the same weight as that day. She jumped led and ran them ragged for what was an absolute belting. I can’t see why she won’t do that again and if she gets to the front, good luck getting past her.
No7 BLACK ON GOLD has been in brilliant form as of late and will be happy getting away from Interlocuter after bumping into him at his last two. 2000m shouldn’t be an issue.
No1 FABRIZIO backs up quickly from last Sunday here and jumps up in distance to the 2000m now. The blinkers off should help him settle here.
No3 GREEN SWEET resumes from a long break here and we shouldn’t worry about the 2000m fresh as Dubios is a very canny operator and this horse was a good winner of the Albury Cup last time in.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 GREEN SWEET
No9 MISTER SEA WOLF goes on top here on spec alone having the first start for Waller and bringing quite good form from Europe across. The trial leading into this was quite good and I like that he starts out over the 1500m fresh as his best form is at around that distance, despite being a 1000m winner.
No4 CABEZA DE VACA is the hardest to beat here, but I have to be against him at the price. He gets no weight relief for King here who has been on board at both runs this time in, and there will be more pressure applied to him in the run.
No8 FEDERAL found the line in good order last start behind Cabeza De Vaca in the November Handicap, the step up to the 1500m now looks to be much more suitable and he gets a super soft run on the map here just behind the speed.
No10 SALSONIC gets one last chance for me here, he gets a race with much more speed engaged, the step up in trip also suits him, and I don’t want to lose if he sprouts wings late.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 SALSONIC
No12 GLENALL (NEXT BEST BET) shouldn’t be beaten by the horses who he ran against last start given he was first-up against some race fit horses and he did it quite tough there, and still got the job done. Second-up last time in he was just touched off on a super wet track by Samantha. The wet going isn’t going to be an issue for him here and from the soft gate here. He should be winning again.
No5 EGYPTIAN SYMBOL resumes here and brings a brilliant fresh record into this, she has been trialing up quite well and also goes very well for Collett and she looks to be set for the Magic Millions again.
No2 THE MONSTAR will be hoping that it keeps on raining in Sydney as he gains a leg in wet going, do not be put off by the jock as he has gotten the job done in the past on this horse. He was good behind Rich Charm last start.
No1 DOTHRAKI has been trialing in good order coming into the fresh run here, he has a great record at this track. But does he want to win?
VALUE RUNNER: No2 THE MONSTAR
No6 BEST GUESS blitzed them last start with sustained speed and didn’t give them a chance. I do love the step up to the 1300m here as he will be able to have that little breather in the run, and won’t be bustled as much. If he is left alone, game over.
No8 MACHINEGUN JUBS looks to be back to her best given the way she charged through the line last start, she finally jumped with them and that was what I wanted to see before backing her. She gets a soft run again, and looks hard to beat.
No7 POWERLINE was very good fresh in the greys race at Flemington when fresh from a year off, he was well backed there and just missed. Now second-up with three weeks between runs he should be much fitter.
No12 HEAVENLY ANNA will be hoping that this rain keeps up as she grows a leg in that going. She has run well at this track in the past and if the rain continues, put her in all exotics.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 POWERLINE