Horses to Follow - Monday 11th December 2017

An emphatic 4L winner came from our black book last weekend and this week we’ve found another progressive 3YO from a messy Pakenham meeting and middle distance galloper from Sydney that looks poised to win next start.

Oddschecker
 | 
Tue, 5 Dec, 12:01 AM

 

Last Week’s Black Book Runners:

 

Soho Ruby – Pakenham Race 2: 5th ($4.60F):

Settled down near the tail of the field on the rail. Pushed out to the widest runner on the turn. Ran on well without ever looking a serious threat. Will be fitter for the run. Still keen on following back to a better racing surface.

 

Jungle Edge – Pakenham Race 5: 3rd ($1.95F):

Punters took a hit here with plenty diving into the shorts about this galloper. Plenty were quick to criticise the ride; however, the apprentice was unlikely to have devised the detrimental tactics. Keen to see this bloke back in the Winter where he’ll be swimming to a few more wins.

 

Coldstone – Pakenham Race 6: 3rd ($12):

Solid placing at an each way price. Received a nice run in transit but looked to be under pressure some way out. Stuck on well despite this. Racing like he needs further than 1600m and now has the platform to do so on the back of a recent freshen. Think there could be some big races for this galloper over Summer. Still following.

 

Burning Front – Pakenham Race 8: 3rd ($4.20F):

Was absolutely unwanted late in betting, drifting form $2.50 to jump at $4.20, whilst the winner Amadeus who jumped at $12.50 was $20 in betting at one point. They knew. Willing to forgive him on this run given the shifty nature of the track despite being very disappointing on face value.

 

Heliosphere – Rosehill Race 2: 2nd ($2.50F):

3 wide no cover the trip and still showed the audacity to kick in the straight and only go down by 0.2L. A huge run. That could either really bring him on for a run over the mile next start. Following very confidently.

 

Mornington – Rosehill Race 5: 4th ($3.80F):

The well-supported import failed to get the cash once again, narrowly going down by 0.8L. The way he kept coming late suggests he needs 2400m in Australia. As evidenced by his record around this distance range overseas. Will give him one go at 2400m before giving up.

 

Grunt – Werribee Race 3: 1st ($1.50):

Absolutely justified the short quote with a slashing win first-up. Not sure about what he’s beat, but he did it in absolute style by 4L on the line, responding strongly as soon as he was asked. The current 3YO middle distance crop isn’t vintage, really keen on this Colt measuring right up. Following confidently.

 

This Week’s Black Booked Runners:

 

Bel Sonic – Pakenham Race 1: 1st ($9):

Convinced the rails were quicksand for this meeting and despite getting first use of the inside section this galloper carved them up right along the rail from last. The 3YO’s late splits of 10.78s for the 400m-200m and 11.88 for the final 200m read well for the day, especially factoring in the track upgrade from soft 7 to soft 6 later in the day.

 

He has showed promise in all 4 of his career starts to date, but the penny looks to have finally dropped with some tinkering of the gear (near-side blinker first time). His SP profile should also give his followers some value moving forward. Sticking to the same race conditions looks to be ideal.

 

Record: 4:2-0-1

 

Where to Next? 3YO BM70 1000m.

 

Lanciato – Rosehill Race 8: 3rd ($6.50):

This 5YO looks to have come back in good form for Mark Newnham, resuming with a very unlucky 3rd placing. Settling down with only 3 runners behind him, jockey Josh Par was always going to need a slice of luck and got absolutely none – running into dead ends for most of the straight then attacking the line with intent when clear to go down by only 0.4L on the line. Should’ve won.

 

The Kiwi bred gelding does his best work on top of the ground so should be competitive in the coming Summer months. With 2 trails under his belt (one at 1200m) and a second-up record of 2:2-0-0, he should provide a great betting prospect in similar grade out to 1400m.

 

Record: 17:4-3-4

 

Where to Next? BM80 over 1400m.

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