Kembla for the first provincial meeting of 2018 where we have 7 races on the card here with some nice enough sized fields to give the punters EW betting which has been devoid at meetings like this as of late. The rail is out 3m the entire circuit here and we should be on a good track come race day.
QUADDIES (races 4-5-6-7)
Skinny Play: 1,6 - 2,7 - 8,9,12 - 14
Wide Play: 1,6 - 1,2,4,7 - 6,8,9,12 - 1,5,12,14
BEST BET: R7 – 14. RIGHTEOUSNESS
Next Best Bet: R1 – 1. SPEED AND STYLE
Best Roughie: R2 – 13. PRESS REVIEW
No1 SPEED AND STYLE (NEXT BEST BET) has been quite good in both starts thus far. You would have to think that this would have been a target race for him, as she gets into a provincial and country horses only maiden at the third start at her home track. The form out of the last start should be more than good enough for this and with the claim for Ryan down to 57kg she should be winning here.
No4 NICCONITA has been very good running through the line at both starts, and the step up to 1200m here looks ideal. Shinn back on board is a bonus and she looks to be the main danger.
No11 WAR OF THE ROSES comes out of the same race as Speed And Style last start and found the line well there. The step to 1300m should help here.
No7 STRATUM CHARGE was ok enough in the one and only trial coming into the debut run. Egyptian Symbol then won a stakes race after the trial, so it’s held up well enough. Watch the betting, home track on debut.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 WAR OF THE ROSES
No6 IMPASSE is brilliantly bred being by Sepoy out of Amelia’s Dream, it cannot get much better than that. The trials coming in have been quite good and the way he has moved through the line both times suggests that 1300m on debut is suitable, blinkers on = go time on debut.
No13 PRESS REVIEW (BEST ROUGHIE) found the line well enough on debut in an effort that showed she was looking for further. She is aided by the jockey change with Glyn getting aboard here. She should be able to sit just in behind the leaders here from barrier 4 and she can only be aided by the step up to the 1300m.
No14 RAW EMOTION will be going back from barrier 17 for sure, as Waller never pushes his horses forward on debut in case it cooks them in the future. This is a well-bred filly, who could be an Oaks filly in time due to the breeding side of things. The trials have been good enough and she should run well.
No4 COLTRANE is the Waller horse that will probably go forward here as he is bred to be an early runner, but hasn’t hit the track yet, despite plenty of trials coming in. With Waller having the 6 in this, you cannot be too sure at what the horses will do, but this is how I see it.
VALUE RUNNER: No13 PRESS REVIEW
No3 PERIBSEN wasn’t too bad on debut for the new stable / first-up in Australia in a much better race than this at Randwick behind Sedanzer. He just got too far out of his ground the way the race was run, but from all reports he looked nothing but brilliant in the yard, if he has improved from that run, he could well put a gap in them here.
No5 VARUSKA has been working well towards a win this time in with two good runs over 1400m and 1600m at the first two runs. The step up to 2100m here looks to be quite suitable given the way she has been running. She won her maiden over 2000m last time in and could jump out of the ground here.
No7 PIERINO has been working well towards a win this time in with three good runs, and improving each time he has stepped up in distance. Given his breeding, he should have been a slipper horse. But he looks to be an out and out stayer. He gets a soft run on the map here and the step up to 2100m won’t be an issue.
No4 JARRETT has been going well enough this time in, despite getting rolled at a short SP, before bouncing back with a win. He does look to be the likely leader here and 2100m is going to be no issue at all here as it has looked as if it has been a trip he has wanted.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 PIERINO
No1 CRADLE MOUNTAIN has been nothing but brilliant since resuming this time in for Cunningham and has been running his opposition into the ground. They went quick at Canberra and he kept that speed up and kicked away for what was a very strong win in very good time. He should be able to improve on that yet again and the way Collett and Cunningham have been going as of late, it is hard to take them on.
No6 NINES ENOUGH was fantastic when first-up off the long break for Englebrecht and really ran through the line there. The form out of the debut win has stood up really well, and they ran super time that day. Sasso Corbaro is running on Saturday (31/12) we will know how that form has stood up by now.
No10 DANZIE resumes here and will be looking for much further than this in time, but this does look to be a good kick off point. He has shown good ability in all runs, and finds a hot race here. I fear he could well get run off his feet however, given there is a lot of speed in this race, but if he can find his feet. He will finish off.
No9 GRAND THEFT AUTO was very good at winning on “debut” for the new stable. She has always shown that she does have good ability and should be further improved for that first-up run. She gets a good run on the map here for King and should be respected.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 GRAND THEFT AUTO
No2 ABERRATION was fantastic first-up for the new stable when really running through the line behind Smartedge (who is fav on Monday 1/1) so we will know how that form has stacked up by now. But he faces a pretty weak race here and that fresh race was much stronger than this, he should be much improved / fitter and be hard to beat here.
No7 SON OF A FOX won well when resuming at Hawkesbury and ran right through the line there, he gets a really soft run on the map here from barrier 1 and will sit just in behind the speed here. He will need just a touch of luck when they straighten to be in the finish.
No4 AMANITO let me down a touch at the second start, when to put it bluntly he was very poor at this course and distance. I am going to put it down to a flat run after such a booming effort on debut. He gets Tye back on board here and I don’t see a reason as to why he cannot bounce back.
No1 CYRUS ROCKS resumes here and finds Shinn fresh (big booking) he has never really lived up to that potential that he once had before his first preparation and has just gone about his business. He finds a weak race here fresh and should be able to run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 AMANITO
No9 QUEEN OF HEIGHTS was good enough first-up and should be aided by the step up in trip here, she just never worked into the race and was eased down late, but before that she looked to be going well. Glyn on who seems to go well for these quirky fillies is a good change here.
No8 PRODIGY has been good at both starts since joining the new stable, it has seemed to have given him a new lease on life and he has really savaged the line in both runs. Up to 1600m doesn’t look to be an issue at all and he should run well again.
No12 LUCKY LEGEND hit the line well last start when starting big odds, I think that race will prove to be ok enough form wise and this isn’t the strongest 72 that we have seen. He should hit the line again and with Hippo on board he will run well.
No6 GODUNOV was good enough on debut when winning not the strongest of races at Hawkesbury. It is hard to knock a horse who wins on debut, but the figures weren’t all too flash. But he should appreciate the step up in trip and finds Collett.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 QUEEN OF HEIGHTS
No14 RIGHTEOUSNESS (BEST BET) came from a long way back on debut and really savaged the line there. He will appreciate the step up in distance here, and he draws a much better gate for Reith. No shock to see him a touch closer in the run here. If he can settle that one or two pairs closer, this could be a gap job as he looks to be a very nice horse in the making by So You Think.
No12 SAVETHELASTDANCE was good enough on debut and ran through the line quite well there. The step up in distance does look to be quite suitable here and she should run well with the winkers going on for the first time also.
No5 DEVIL’S LUCK comes out of a good race last start in which the form should hold up quite well. Don’t think he was well suited by running at Wyong, and getting to the open spaces of Kembla should be much better for his style.
No1 AUERBACH comes out of the same race as Devils Luck last start and was only run down late there. As I said it should be a good race to follow in time, gate is a bit of a worry here for me, as he could go forward again. But may get stuck out wide.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 SAVETHELASTDANCE