Geelong (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Geelong. Today’s best bet is in race 7.
Looks an interesting meeting for Geelong on a Thursday afternoon with the races only 30 minutes apart will start at 1.30pm and be all over by 5pm.
Thank goodness the mercury has dropped from the dreadful spike on the weekend and horses will run in comfortable conditions.
The false rail will be shifted to the seven-metre position and the grass track is rated as a Good 4 with the weather remaining sunny and clear. Does not appear to be any stand-outs on the eight race card and suggest to watch betting fluctuations closely.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 2,6 – 4,9 – 5 - 7
Wide Play: 1,2,6,9 – 2,4,7,8 – 4,5,9 – 7,8,12
BEST BET: R7 – 5. MEGA D’ORO
Next Best Bet: R5 – 2. AURORA ROSE
Best Roughie: R8 – 8. KARAKORAM
R1 – 1.30pm. Bet365 2YO Maiden Plate – 1130m.
No6 GRACEFUL STAR a small field of six two-year-olds face off here. This filly underwent a sterling test when finishing third down the straight 1000m at Flemington at her second start on January 1. Has Andrew Mallyon to ride for Team Hayes.
No2 DECLARATIONOF THE HEART is a colt from the top stables of the Freedman brothers and will have leading jockey mark Zahra to ride at his debut. Has not exposed form from gate trials, but is drawn perfectly in gate two.
*SCRATCHED* No3 EL PLANETA is a colt who is a stablemate to Declarationoftheheart. Has no trial form so hard to say how good he is but the stable is a leading yard and has top jockey James Winks on board to steer. Little exposed in this race
*SCRATCHED* No5 GHEEDAA is the stablemate to the favourite Graceful Star but like most here has no exposed trial form. The Hayes team is the state’s No.1 two-year-old yard and will wear a lugging bit at her debut. Keep a watch.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 EL PANET
R2 – 2.00pm. Ribblesdale the Black Type Stud Maiden Plate – 2447m.
No6 UNRESOLVED looks rock hard fit with a solid 224m in a maiden here last week. Strikes a small and moderate bunch today and that was his first test over ground at his second start back this campaign. The experienced Stephen Baster is a bonus.
No5 TAILORED ran a distant 8 length second over 2400m in a maiden here on December 24. Is not striking a Winx here, but a meek field in opposition. He is rock solid now with the 2400m run under his belt and would respect.
No4 MR INTEGRITY ran a fair third over 1800m in a maiden at Burrumbeet on January 1 as a red hot $1.80 favourite. That was his third start this campaign and gets the super fit Brad Rawiller to ride today.
No2 BADGER’S LUCK has had two runs under his belt and should be primed now for this race. Latest he ran a fair sixth over 2000m at Penshurst on December 26. Strikes maiden class again today and was backed from $31 into $15 last start.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 BADGER’S LUCK
R3 – 2.30pm. IGA Liquor 3YO Maiden Plate – 1530m.
No9 OUR GIRL BABS raised her brow with a good second over 1400m maiden at Cranbourne on December 26 on a wet track. That was only her third start and she was expected to run well being backed from $26 into $12.
No2 EVOLUTIONIST will be rock solid with a steady fifth over 1318m in a maiden here last week. He was steady in the market at $5.50 and the run came off a third at Seymour at his previous start. Has been placed twice at five efforts.
No6 YOU GOT IT hails from a top city yard and ran a rock solid fourth at debut over 1200m in a maiden at Seymour on December 21. Gets the experienced jockey Jamie Mott to ride from a good alley in gate five.
No3 MOSKI has two critical gear changes with the blinkers and the lugging bit going on for the first time. Ran a good fourth over 1400m maiden at sale on December 1. Was backed from $6.50 into $5.50 that day at debut.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 MOSKI
R4 – 3.00pm. Pink Angels Raceday 28th January Maiden Plate – 1130m.
No7 ESPLANADE is a Godolphin-trained galloper having his first start for new trainer James Cummings. Has abundant speed to cross from gate 16 and will be improved on debut sixth over 1400m maiden at Pakenham in May on a bog track.
No3 UNIVERSAL THIEF showed improvement at first start back from a long spell with a sound second over 1100m maiden at Colac on December 16. Was steady at $4.80 that day and has a nice draw in gate seven today.
No9 WON BALL is from the all-conquering stable of Darren Weir and has leading stable rider John Allen to ride at his debut today. The three-year-old son of Casino Prince has no exposed trial form but being from Weary he will be ready.
*SCRATCHED* No4 VIVA ACHEEVA had little luck at debut when caught three wide and ran well enough under the circumstances to finish eighth 1100m maiden at Bendigo in August. Has a new trainer and a new rider first-up today. Worth noting.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 VIVA ACHEEVA
R5 – 3.30pm. Bet365 BM64 Handicap – 2447m.
No2 AURORA ROSE (NEXT BEST BET) comes down to Victoria with sparkling form in NSW. Culminated campaign there with a smart win over 2360m at Newcastle on December 23. Was backed into a red-hot $1.90 and delivered the good winning by 3.3 lengths. Carries 2kg more on 60kg here but has the effervescent Victorian jockey Stephen Baster as his new rider for this assault.
No10 CORRS won at Cranbourne over 2000m four starts ago and recent form has been honest enough to suggest.
No6 POPPIHOLLA went down in a close finish over 2100m as a favourite at Echuca last start.
*SCRATCHED* No1 DREADED was a last-start winner over this trip carrying 60.5kg. Will carry 59.5kg today with the 2kg claim.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 DREADED
R6 – 4.00pm. Geelong Homes Class 1 Handicap – 1130m.
No4 KNIGHT COMMANDER was a magnificent winner over 1100m in a maiden at Kyneton at his debut three starts ago. Latest he ran a close seventh over 1100m at Werribee on December 24. Trainer Darren Weir has top rider John Allen booked.
*SCRATCHED* No7 MAGNORUM was an excellent winner over 1000m maiden at debut at Mornington in November. Last start ran a great second over at Werribee on December 10. Jake Noonan replaces Michael Walker and would respect.
No8 JUSTSIMMER absolutely trashed the opposition by over 5 lengths at debut over 1121m in a maiden here back in November. That was at her debut and she ran solid 11th at Sandown at her next start on December 20.
*SCRATCHED* No2 CRITICAL THINKING was rushed up the grades in Queensland where ran 14th in the group 3 Fred Best Classic (1400m) at Eagle Farm last start on May 25. He did win his last Victorian start in a maiden at Seymour in April and respect.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 CRITICAL THINKING
R7 – 4.30pm. Connect Tel BM64 Handicap – 1330m.
No5 MEGA D’ORO (BEST BET) has been ultra-consistent with four placings at past four starts this campaign. Latest shot away to an effortless 1.25 length win over 1450m at Kyneton on December 23. The talented Daniel Stackhouse is the new rider, replacing Jake Duffy and he is down a kilo to 59kg today. He has drawn ideally to do no work in gate two and the distance here looks to suit.
No4 LADY SKILLS has a strong first-up record of a win and a placing at three starts. Respect fresh today.
No9 SHE’LL STRYKEYA won over 1200m at Mornington two starts ago and was a narrowly beaten favourite last start.
No1 IT’S A SHAME BILLY was caught most deep last start before finishing seventh over 1200m at Sandown. This is easier.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 IT’S A SHAME BILLY
R8 – 5.00pm. Roderick Insurance Brokers Rising Stars Race BM64 – 1530m.
No7 SKY PUNCH is a three-year-old who won at his last start at this track five starts ago over 1400m. Last start he ran a closing sixth over 1300m at Sandown on December 20. Apprentice Ethan Brown’s 2kg claim reduces his impost to 56kg.
No12 SKY LAKE capped her last campaign with a maiden win at Cranbourne. Was having her second start back from a spell when finishing a solid seventh over 1500m at Moonee Valley on December 23. If gets a clear run is a chance.
No4 MUCCINO with the 1.5kg claim of Chris Caserta will carry 57.5kg. Ran home well to capture third over 1400m at Seymour on December 21. Carried 57.5kg that day but had a superior alley in seven compared to 12 today.
No8 KARAKORAM (BEST ROUGHIE) had to knuckle down for a ding dong battle to the wire when scoring over 1450m at Kyneton on December 23. Carried 57kg that day and goes up to 57.5kg here but has an ideal alley in gate two to do no work.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 KARAKORAM