Pakenham (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Pakenham. Today’s best bet is in race 8.
Racing returns to Pakenham for the Thursday night racing series in Victoria over the summer months.
The eight race card has four maidens and three races for fillies and mares so the winners don’t poke you in the eye – so to speak. The false rail is at the True position and the track is rated as a Soft 5 (Tuesday), but that will in all likelihood be upgraded with a heat-wave again to hit Victoria.
Cool lead up weather on Tuesday and Wednesday will be replaced by a very hot 37C after a high minimum of 22C. Fortunately the meeting is at night so the temperature should be much milder.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 1,4 – 6,7 – 3,8 - 7
Wide Play: 1,4,5 – 6,7,8 – 3,5,8 – 4,5,7
BEST BET: R8 – 7. BELFAST
Next Best Bet: R5 – 1. HECTOPASCAL
Best Roughie: R4 – 3. PARIS REWARD
R1 – 6.30pm. Racing.com 2YO Maiden Plate – 1200m.
No5 SEBERATE This maiden is something of a raffle with not a lot of exposed form. Raced without much luck at debut when finishing fourth over 1000m at Sandown on a bog track on December 2. Has drawn well and gets Damien Oliver.
No3 DULETTE fought on okay to run a solid third over 1100m maiden at Geelong on December 26. Was a big drifter in the betting out from $12 to $41 but defied the odds. Top rider Jamie Mott rides again and has drawn well in gate six.
No7 DEOKYHE again has ace rider Damian Lane to pilot at second career start after running a good second over 1118m maiden at Geelong on January 4. Drops a kilo in weight to 56kg, which is a bonus today.
No8 MISS HELLBENDER she was doing her best work at the end when running fourth over 1100m maiden at Geelong on December 26. That was at her debut and would anticipate she will derive benefit from the start.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 MISS HELLBENDER
R2 – 7.00pm. Nine Mile Fresh 3YO Maiden Plate – 1400m.
No3 CONFLUENCE deserves a breakthrough win with five seconds at six starts. He was heavily backed into a $2.15 favourite when finishing a driving second over 1200m maiden at Sandown on January 3. Gets ace rider Damian Lane again.
No1 BAM finished off his race very strongly to capture fifth over 1200m maiden at Sandown on January 3. The extra 200m here should suit on what he did last start and he looms as a big danger from gate four and Michael Dee to ride.
No2 BOSS TWEED is resuming from a 12-week spell and has exposed form with two placings at four starts. Latest he worked to the lead before tiring to finish last of seven over 1600m maiden at Bendigo on October 21.
No7 MR WARBUCKS has been placed at his two country starts in similar company. Latest he ran a solid third over 1100m maiden at Sony Creek on December 30. He gets a change of rider with Luke Nolen taking the reins.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 MR WARBUCKS
R3 – 7.30pm. Spendthrift Maiden Plate – 2500m.
No8 DAZZLING RAIN should be right in the fray on his last-start second over 2000m maiden at Wangaratta on January 2. Gets an important riding change with top jockey Michael Dee the new pilot and is drawn on the rail.
No9 SARTEANO STAR has finished inside the money at four of seven starts. He is ultra-consistent and looks to be right in this on his last start 2025mn maiden at Cranbourne on January 5. Senior jockey Rhys McLeod is the new rider.
No7 ALABAMA MAN is fit now with two runs over a distance under his belt. Latest he ran a close third over 2200m maiden at Bainsdale on December 29. That was only his third career start and is ready to show.
No3 REFEREE has finished inside the money at his past three starts. Latest he ran a narrow second over 2200m maiden at Bairnsdale on December 29. He is rock hard with three runs over the journey under his belt.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 ALABAMA MAN
R4 – 8.00pm. Hanson F&M Maiden Plate – 1400m.
No11 SONGS OF IRELAND is only lightly raced with two starts and has upside. She ran a close third over 1200m maiden at Mornington on January 1. She was backed from $14 into $9 that day and strikes her own sex here.
No6 FAMOOSA was trapped five deep but kept on improving down the home stretch to run a good third over 1209m maiden at Yarra Valley on January 9. She has drawn perfectly in gate three and looks one of the better chances.
No3 PARIS REWARD (BEST ROUGHIE) threaded her way through the field to run a strong fifth over 1209m in a maiden at Yarra Valley on January 9. She faces a similar class today and won’t be at $101 after that performance. Has only raced three times.
No5 DOUBLE THE MAGIC was caught a long way back when finishing seventh over 1209m in a maiden at Yarra Valley on January 9. She worked home steadily that day and this is only her third career start. Damian Lane is a bonus.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 PARIS REWARD
R5 – 8.30pm. Cardinia Shire F&M BM70 Handicap – 1400m.
No1 HECTOPASCAL (NEXT BEST BET) flew home out wide to post an impressive one-length win over 1400m at Sandown on December 20. She was then stepped up to Flemington where she ran a good sixth after being tramped deep over 1400m on January 1. The 3kg claim drops her weight down to a comfortable 57.5kg and she is well drawn in gate five.
No4 SHE’S GOING OFF drops a kilo in weight to 58kg and was a clever winner over 1400m at Cranbourne on January 5.
No2 FUDGED gets a big drop in class today on her city performances and rates with claims.
No5 ALL ABOUT RHYTHM has drawn on the rail and gets top rider Dwayne Dunn to ride here.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 FUDGED
R6 – 9.00pm. PB Ronald Memorial F&M BM64 Handicap – 1600m.
No6 LA BELLE JUDE just missed the major prize when running a narrow second over 1518m at Geelong on January 4. Gets top jockey Ryan Maloney to ride again and drops a kilo to 58kg, but is drawn wide in 10.
No7 ALNAAS comes here off a brilliant maiden win over 1600m at Echuca on December 31. Was heavily backed into a $1.85 favourite that day but rise in class today. Goes up 2.5kg to 57.5kg but Jake Duffy keeps the ride.
No2 STAR CIRCLE has been campaigning in the city and ran a steady seventh over 1600m at Sandown last start on January 3. This is a much lower grade and gets the bonus of leading jockey Damian Lane. Can improve.
No4 MOSCOW RED was forced to work hard when a closing fourth over 1600m against her own sex at Ballarat on November 28. With the 3kg claim will drop down to a more comfortable 56.5kg and is worth thought.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 MOSCOW RED
R7 – 9.30pm. Schreurs & Sons BM64 Handicap – 1200m.
No8 MOUSAI made an impression at her debut when winning over 1200m against her own sex on the synthetic at Pakenham on April 27. Was resuming from a long spell when running a strong sixth over 1200m against her own sex at Sandown on January 3.
No5 YASEY SUN was a smart 1.75 length winner over 1200m at Bairnsdale before running a steady seventh over 1300m at Sandown on January 10. He is on the quick back up but is back down in class today.
No3 BON’S GHOST is resuming from a 17-week spell today. He has an outstanding record fresh of two wins and two placings at four starts. He has drawn to get a soft run in transit in gate two and would keep very safe.
No1 CARLINGFORD with the 3kg claim will have his weight dropped to 57.5kg today. He had a tough run when a closing fourth over 1200m at Cranbourne on a bog track on December 29 and from gate six has each-way claims.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 CARLINGFORD
R8 – 10.00pm. Sportsbet Racing Form BM64 Handicap – 1400m.
No7 BELFAST (BEST BET) looked most imposing when posting a brilliant 1.25 length win over 1200m maiden at Bairnsdale on December 29. The three-year-old colt hails from the top stable of Busuttin and Young and was backed at his debut at $4.40. He gets the bonus of top jockey Dwayne Dun to guide across from barrier nine today. He won on a rain-affected track at his debut and strikes similar conditions here.
No4 VENATOR came on strong to finish fourth over 1100m at Sony Creek last start. Expect a challenge.
No5 GOTTA BE A ROKSTAR was a clever winner in a maiden at Bairnsdale at his second start this campaign.
No3 RED GATEAU drops in class here on his sixth over 1400m at Sandown last start. Has appeal.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 GOTTA BE A ROKSTAR