Pakenham (Thursday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Pakenham. Today’s best bet is in race 8.
The entertainment of the night could come from Irish import Calibration making his debut in the Meluca Group Handicap.
Leading trainer Darren Weir has enjoyed outstanding success with the Northern Hemisphere imports and is producing this four-year-old stallion first up from a 30-week spell. He has booked top stable lightweight jockey Dean Yendall to ride the son of Excelebration at his Australian debut. He won at his last start over 2011m in a maiden at Leicester on July 20. He gave nothing else a chance romping home by seven lengths with another three lengths back to the third placed galloper. Calibration has raced twice fresh for a win and a third and he is the third highest weighted horse in the race on 59kg, where the limit is 57.5kg.
The False Rail will be moved to the nine-metre position for tonight’s eight-race card and the track is rated as a Good 4. The weather will be cool and overcast with a maximum of 24C forecast.
QUADDIES (races 5,6,7,8)
Skinny Play: 2 – 3,6 – 3,8 – 4,10
Wide Play: 1,2,11 – 3,6,10,11 – 1,3,8,9 – 4,5,10
BEST BET: R8 – 10. RADIANT ROUGE
Next Best Bet: R6 – 6. SUPER SNOB
Best Roughie: R6 – 11. TAKE A SELFIE
R1 – 6.00pm. Racing.com Maiden Plate – 2000m.
No10 SOPRESSA resumed from a 15-week spell with a promising second over 1400m maiden at Terang on January 30. She is a staying bred filly from the top stable of Darren Weir and will be finely tuned for a break-through win.
No4 MY MOTHER SAYS will wear a tongue tie and a crossover noseband for the first time. Has been finishing amongst the place-getters last start running a solid third over 1400m maiden at Ballarat on January 30. Chance.
No6 MADAM STOWELL was doing her best work out wide when running home to finish third over 1600m maiden here on January 26. Apprentice Ben Thompson rides again but has no claim to use here.
No11 TAIMANA PRINCESS is having her first start for new trainer Matt Cumani. She showed she was on an upward road when finishing a good fifth over 1400m maiden at Camperdown on January 20. Nicely bred and watch.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 TAIMANA PRINCESS
R2 – 6.30pm. R & C Asphalt Maiden Plate – 1600m.
No9 JOIE DE DREAM going to stick to this filly despite her going down as a $3.30 favourite here when finishing fifth over 1600m in a maiden here on January 25. She was held up in running and if gains a clearer transit will be there.
No6 YOU GOT IT was giving all when finishing second over 1405m maiden at Sale on February 4. He is on the quick back up but keeps Ben Thompson and has the same weight on 58kg. The extra distance here will suit.
No11 VELOCISSIMA is from an astute stable and would expect substantial improvement on debut over 1400m in a maiden here on January 25. The daughter of Commands was galloped on both behind legs and fought on well.
No10 PRINCESS ARABELLA was doing her best work at the end of the race over a 1400m maiden at Sandown on January 31. She drops from city class to country here and with a good draw in gate five should be running home.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 PRINCESS ARABELLA
R3 – 7.00pm. Stabil-Lime Group of Companies 3YO Fillies Maiden Plate – 1400m.
No12 ZEBREEZ has the score on the board with two starts for two placings in a strong maiden. Charged late to narrowly miss when second over 1200m in a maiden at Geelong on January 28. The winkers come off and noseroll goes on.
No2 BRALCA’S GEM need to combat a wide alley in 16, but has the scoresheet with three placings and a fourth at past four starts. Latest ran a strong third over 1400m in a maiden at Sandown last Wednesday. The back up is a query.
No3 CHANDON APPAREL was no match for the winner but boxed on well at debut to run second over 1200m in a maiden at Moe on February 2. Will take natural improvement from the encounter and is drawn well in three.
No6 LA CHICA ROSA gave a promising performance at first start back from a spell when running third over 1112m maiden at Kilmore on February 1. Gets top jockey Damien Oliver to ride and is again well drawn in gate four.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 CHANDON APPAREL
R4 – 7.30pm. APM Group Maiden Plate – 1200m.
No11 HAPUKA has the runs on the board though is resuming from a 20-week spell. The filly is from the astute yard of Busuttin and Young and she was a red hot fancy when second over 1400m last start at Bendigo in September. Big chance.
No4 STORM BOSS ran a good second in the country before running a steady fifth over 1200m in a maiden here on February 1. That was the 3yo colt’s third start from a spell and is now cherry ripe.
No5 TIGER TRAP was held tight before finishing a steady fifth over 1000m in a maiden at Mornington on January 26. He was well liked at $5 that day at his debut and he did win a 900m trial en route to his debut.
No12 OLIVIA’S GIRL gets an important riding change with Group 1 winning rider Regan Bayliss her new partner after she ran fifth over 1200m maiden at Mornington on January 26. Respect here from two.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 OLIVIA’S GIRL
R5 – 8.00pm. Dalton Consulting Engineers BM64 Handicap – 1600m.
No2 SENSATION ALLY has been most reliable and ran a good second over 1600m here on February 1. That was her first start here and gets senior rider Daniel Stackhouse replacing a 2kg apprentice on 59.5kg.
No11 SMOOTH CELEBRATION made a grand debut to this track with a clever win over 1400m in a maiden here on January 25. Goes up a half-kilo to 55.5kg but keeps top jockey Regan Bayliss and can go on.
No1 LADY EFFORT has the blinkers coming off and the visors going on. Ran a fair sixth over 1405m at Sale on February 4. She gets senior rider Chris Symons replacing a 2kg apprentice and is well drawn in six.
No4 CONDAMINE made a promising comeback from a 26-week spell when finishing a steady third over 1600m at Ballarat on January 30. The Irish import is bound to take benefit from the effort and goes well second-up.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 CONDAMINE
R6 – 8.30pm. Ontoit Global F&M BM64 Handicap – 1400m.
No6 SUPER SNOB (NEXT BEST BET) gave a brave performance when had a chequered run before finishing fifth over 1200m at Moonee Valley on January 26. That was first-up from a spell and has a superior record second up of two starts from two placings. Strikes her own sex here over her pet distance of 1400m where she has won twice and been placed once at seven starts. Stephen Baster rides again.
No10 SPIRIT OF PHOENIX showed plenty of promise to win first-up over 1400m at Ballarat last month.
No3 MISS ADEQUATE has been given a six weeks freshen up and has been on the mark at recent starts.
No11 TAKE A SELFIE (BEST ROUGHIE) with three placings from past four starts and drawn on the rail is an each-way chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No11 TAKE A SELFIE
R7 – 9.00pm. Meluca Group BM70 Handicap – 1400m.
No3 CALIBRATION pay to keep most safe with the Irish import making his Australian debut for the hot stable of Darren Weir. Won at his last start over 2011m in July and has the excellent stats of five starts for a win and four placings. He also goes well fresh.
No8 EXPINSIVE overcame a hampered run to score a smart win over 1405m at Sale on February 4. He was backed into a $3.60 favourite and he drops a kilo today to 58.5kg. Barrier 11 is a setback.
No9 SIMPLY INVINCIBLE has been in excellent form at Geelong with a last-start win and a second at past two starts. Latest fought hard for a narrow win over 1300m on January 28. Showed heat stress after the race and drops a kilo here to 58.5kg.
No1 APPROVED ANGER was turned out for a long spell following an eighth over 1600m at Flemington on July 22. Leading trainer Darren Weir has booked top rider Michael Dee to ride and goes well fresh.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 APPROVED AVENGER
R8 – 9.30pm. Sportsbet Racing Form Class 1 Handicap – 1200m.
No10 RADIANT ROUGE (BEST BET) was a brilliant winner against her own sex over 1400m at Cranbourne back in May. She resumed from a long spell with a highly promising second over 1205m at Sale on February 4. Hails from the astute yard of Mick Kent and has a superior record second-up. Regular rider Ethan Brown keeps the ride on the four-year-old mare. Looks a good chance on a tough day for stand-outs.
No4 TRUMP THIS gets senior rider Jamie Mott replacing a 3kg claimer after running a strong second over 1106m at Benella on January 24.
No5 DEADLY CHOICES drove hard to the wire at Moonee Valley last start and rates with claims here.
No1 DAM READY has the blinkers going back on and the winkers coming off. Can redeem himself.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 DAM READY