2018 Blue Diamond Betting Preview

We preview the key chances in this year’s open Blue Diamond market and give our betting plan.

Oddschecker
 | 
Wed, 21 Feb, 4:10 PM

Race Shape

 

Looks like a typically messy map for the 2YO’s with speed drawn all round and plenty of tactical changes likely. With the rail moving in 11m from Wednesday’s meeting, being on pace certainly shouldn’t be a disadvantage. Many will need luck in running if they are to get a smother, assisting them in running 6 furlongs. As such, 1200m statistics are vital along with 2YO’s who have shown they can take a gap if needed.

 

 

Key Runners

1. Long Leaf – K. McEvoy (7): $7F

Un-beaten from 3 race starts. Has taken a forward enough position in all 3 and gets a top jockey McEvoy to do the steering from a top draw. The times he’s run at all three starts have been solid, seemingly racing best when under siege – digging deep to chase down La Pomme De Pin on debut at holding Oohood at bay next time out. The step up to 1200m from 1000m is a slight concern but he does have a fitness base. Other knock would be the subsequent failure of Ollivander out of his Blue Diamond Preview. Definitely backable at the price.

2. Written By – J. Childs (18): $11

Another un-beaten colt, who’s been turned out in excellent conditions at both race starts, a real looker in the yard. The winner of the 1100m Colts and Gelding Prelude last time out in strong style, taking over with a furlong to go effortlessly despite being 3 wide no cover for much of the trip. 1200m will suit the son of Written Tycoon down to the ground. The query is barrier 18 (15 after emergencies come out), he’ll roll forward and could get into a speed battle, but if he finds cover in the first few pairs watch out. Happy with the price to find out.

6. Encryption – D. Lane (15): $21

Best bred horse in the race (Lohnro x Guelph) who’s oozed quality in the yard at each outing. He’s been working to the line solidly in all three of his 1000m starts. Looks like the step up to the 1200m will really bring him on, could even be looking for 1400m. Will take cover from a wide barrier and gets the services of a top jock. At $21 he’s one I’d seriously be considering for exotics and keeping an eye of for the future.

8. Plague Stone – B. Melham (6): $8

Been a huge boom on this galloper on the back of 2 extremely impressive trials (by 5.3 and 4.8L). James Cummings has made it very evident he’s still a work in progress, but he did improve his racing manners last time out behind Written By. A win would not surprise because he has a plethora of ability, but a scrappy race could see his race manners come undone and at the $8 mark he’s one I’ll only play exotics with.

11. Kinky Boom – C. Williams (14): $9

Only 1200m winner in the race (aside form Melveen the fourth emergency) and that came at this track in emphatic style. Seeing Williams give the Filly a peach of a steer, taking gaps from back in the field she put them away in a few strides and looked very strong on the line. Will map fine from the wide gate (11 with emergencies coming out), trainer McEvoy stating that she’s shown better speed in her recent jump out and speed runners to follow across. Only knock on this filly is that her lone win comes from an Inglis Restricted race, where those she’s beaten may not be of the quality she faces here. In saying this $9 is a great price to find out, top pick.

13. Ennis Hill – S. Baster (4): $9

Has to command serious consideration after her arrogant win in the G3 Chairman’s Stakes last time out. Led at a solid clip and put a gap in them with minimal effort. The times out of that event were quality and she still had plenty left in the tank. Won’t get the lead that easily here (barrier will assist though) and she was only fair, running 4th when taking cover in her first start. Right in the mix.

16. Oohood – L. Currie (10): $9

One that I’ll be looking to risk. She’s been teasing running on at all three of her race starts and with barrier 10 in this looks to map very awkwardly with speed drawn all around her. Rail moving back in could be against her too. Cannot deny she has a brilliant finishing speed and the 1200m could suit, but there are others around the $9 I’d prefer.

Selections

1. Kinky Boom ($9)

2. Written By ($11)

3, Ennis Hill ($9)

4. Long Leaf ($6)

 

 

Betting Plan:

 

With no stand out in this year’s field, suggested bet would be to equal stake our top 3 selections in Kinky Boom, Written By and Ennis Hill, whilst saving on Long Leaf.

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