Randwick for Randwick Guineas day here, and what a belter of a day we have. All nine races on the card are stakes races, we have two Group 1s with the other being the Canterbury Stakes. The credentials of some Golden Slipper horses go on the line here in the Todman and Reisling Stakes. What a day. Track will be a 4 or 5 come race day with the Rail +6M 1600M TO WP, +4M REMAINDER.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 1,8,9 - 2 - 1,5,7,9 - 3,8,12
Wide Play: 1,2,6,8,9 - 2,7,10 - 1,4,5,7,9,10,12 - 3,5,6,7,8,10,12
BEST BET: R7 – 3. KEMENTARI
Next Best Bet: R5 – 1. REDZEL
Best Roughie: R6 – 9. TULIP
No4 NETTOYER backs up quickly from last weekend and will appreciate the step up in distance here, the form out of last week’s race will hold up quite well as they ran sizzling time there and this mare looks to have some quality.
No3 KARAVALI will be much better suited second up, up to the mile on the bigger track here. She is a winner at Randwick before and with Collett on from barrier 1, she looks to get a great run of it here.
No2 PERFECT RHYME closed off quite well last start behind Daysee Doom and will be much better suited up to the 1600m, her second-up record isn’t too bad, as she has placed two times from three attempts, and she will be better as the distances increase.
No1 OAKLAHOMA GIRL gets out to a suitable distance here and a much bigger track and she should run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 PERFECT RHYME
No3 HOUTZEN is a weighted moral here, coming in with a benchmark of 97, if this was a handicap she would have to give the field 7.5kgs. Her form is just better than these and this time in she has trialled in brilliant fashion.
No6 I AM EXCITED was a brilliant winner first-up from a spell in brilliant time coming from well off them, running some of the best sectionals of the day there. She should only improve second-up, but Houtzen could well be off and gone.
No4 JORDA has trialled well coming into this, and has a very good fresh record and the form around her is quite strong. Bowman knows her well enough to get her to run well here.
No7 ACQUME comes out of the same race as I Am Excited fresh last start, she gets the blinkers back on here and gets a good run just off the pace.
VALUE RUNNER: 3 / 4,6 exacta
No2 ESTIJAAB ran brilliant time and figures when, being beaten by Sunlight last start, she was left a sitting duck there and showed some brilliant fight to keep on kicking there. She looks to get an easier time of it in front here, and although I don’t want to step into $1.35, she is the one to beat.
No5 PURE ELATION is a nice filly who wasn’t given a good ride in either of the two Melbourne starts. She brings a good SP profile to this and that needs to be respected. The trial coming into this was quite good at Hawkesbury.
No3 GONGS was run off her legs last start, she gets a race run much better to suite here and second-up she is going to be much better than she was fresh and will have the last shot at them.
No1 OUTBACK BARBIE has form that ties in well with Estijaab here, given the third in the Magic Millions behind Sunlight. She went brilliantly in a Gold Coast trial last week and will run well for sure here.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 PURE ELATION
No2 PERFORMER is still my No. 1 Golden Slipper horse at this stage, given that he has done nothing wrong. People are writing him off, after his trials. That’s typical Waller for mine. He got the job done fresh as he should have. He is looking for 1200m and gets it now, and gets a good run behind the speed here and should be too good.
No7 PLAUGE STONE had no luck in the Blue Diamond and I am forgetting that run, his two previous starts were very good without no luck whatsoever. Barrier 14 does make it a little tricky even though, but with K Mac on board I am happy to give him one last chance.
SCRATCHED - No8 BONDI resumes here and has trialled in good fashion leading into the fresh run here. I don’t know what to make of his Magic Millions program, nothing went right. The trial leading into this was quite good and I need to respect the SP vs Performer.
No1 EF TROOP resumes from the Magic Millions where he caused all of that carnage, for mine there is still that big question mark over him at the 1200m. But his trial last week at the Gold Coast was quite good.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 PLAUGE STONE
No1 REDZEL (NEXT BEST BET) was picked off in the last stride in the Lightning Stakes where they ran blistering times and figures. He has no excuse for that first-up loss, they did beat the rest quite well there and he is the best sprinter in Aus for a reason, this field is much weaker and he should be too good for them.
No9 VIRIDINE is the interesting runner here for mine, as he steps up to WFA for the first time here, and has only been beaten once, and that was when he drew the wrong gate down the straight in the Coolmore. He could step up in a big way.
No6 ENGLISH has won this race the last two years and has trialed in good order coming in, to make it three in a row.
SCRATCHED - No5 BALL OF MUSCLE wasn’t too bad in the Lightning and is a 1000m horse these days and should run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 VIRIDINE
No9 TULIP (BEST ROUGHIE) won in good fashion at the Valley last start when having to cover ground and she was very strong through the line there. The step up to the 1300m here is very suitable and from gate 2, Collett gets a great run in behind the speed here and she could be too strong late.
No8 SHOWTIME probably rolls forward here and looks to run them into the ground, he was very good when getting run down late by Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom in the Orr at Caulfield. I have to respect his form here as its quite strong.
No1 HAPPY CLAPPER resumes here and has a brilliant record fresh 9:3-2-1. He is on the Doncaster program clearly and has had two very good trials coming into this and he will be strong late.
No2 CLEARLY INNOCENT didn’t have the best of luck fresh and gets Bowman on board here, up to the 1300m is much more suitable here as he is a group 1 winner over the distance and his second-up record (barring an Everest failure last time in) is quite strong.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 TULIP
No3 KEMENTARI (BEST BET) I won’t hide from it, I have a crush on this horse, he is an absolute beast and has been brilliant in both wins this time in. He sat off them fresh and blew them away, then went forward last time and was too strong. He has drawn perfect in barrier 4 here, to sit just behind the leaders. The only possible chance that beats him here is not running out the mile, but he was good in a brutally run Caulfield Guineas last prep.
No10 D’ARGENTO was brilliant when stepping up to this grade last time and running right through the line, the step up to the 1600m here is just perfect and despite barrier 14. He is the logical danger here.
No7 PEACEFUL STATE is the interesting runner here, backing up after the Australian Guineas which was run at a brutal pace last weekend. It’s simple, he either comes on from that and runs well here; or he can start now to have any chance.
No1 ACE HIGH is just flying this time in, and I’ll say it again like last start, this is too short for him. But he will be charging right through the line, he is on track for the Rosehill Guineas and the Derby.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 PEACEFUL STATE
No7 SLOW BURN has trialled in very good order coming into the fresh run here and looks to take that next step here, up against some black type mares. The form that she brings to this is quite good with strong SP’s against Osborne Bulls and Sedanzer.
No9 SUGAR BELLA is back off a freshen up here and comes back from three devastating wins last time in. She has trialled brilliantly coming into this, she is the short priced fav for the Provincial Championships. But if she was to win this, she would be ineligible
SCRATCHED - No5 ALL OVER BOSANOVA has a good record in QLD and has now joined the O’Shea yard and looks to have trialled in very good order coming into the fresh run here, she looks as if she will jump and run here and the end of a strong 1200m may see her out.
No1 RAVI resumes here and has the big weight of 59kgs compared to the rest of the field to carry here, the two trials coming into this have been quite good and she is a quality mare.
VALUE RUNNER: No1 RAVI
No3 SINGING ran up to his market expectations last start when he was $2.50 out to $5.00 and was utterly horrible. He has had a trial since and has looked to move quite well, I am forgetting that last start and trusting the SP and going off his two wins prior.
No8 ALWARD we all saw it fresh, he should have won simple as that. Apprentice off and McEvoy on is a big tick here. Sky’s Lizzie Jelfs said that he had never looked better in the time that she had seen him, and he can only improve second-up. His 2000m stats are sheer perfection as he is 5/5.
No12 EMPEROR’S WAY “won” last start and continued his upward spiral of winning and now comes to stakes grade for the first time and gets a good weight drop here down to 53kgs. My worry here is Adkins jumps aboard, it doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence. But he is a nice horse.
SCRATCHED - No5 SHOW A STAR has drawn horribly in 14 here and is apparently off to the Canberra Cup on Sunday. Regardless of which race he runs in he is a chance, but expect to see him in Canberra and not here.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 SINGING