2018 Golden Slipper Betting Preview

The top of the market is congested with Sunlight at $4 and Written By at $5. We’ve taken a firm stance on both two gallopers and found some good value in a runner at $18.

Oddschecker
 | 
Thu, 22 Mar, 9:20 AM

 

Race Shape

 

A stack of speed in this year’s Slipper once again. Assuming emergencies come out, Sizzling Belle and Ef Troop will kick up for barriers 1 and 2 to likely lead with Sunlight (5) and Written By (5) will be close behind them. Secret Lady (13) and Estijaab (17) will burn across from wider, possibly creating a 30wdie running line. Sanbar (3), Aylmerton (8) and Santos (7) all look to get nice runs behind the speed with Enbihaar (15), Performer (16), Long Leaf (19) and Prairie Fire (6) taking positions off midfield. The rest back looking to run on.

 

 

The Key Runners

 

1. Written By – J.Childs (56.5kg) (Barrier 4): $5: The unbeaten emphatic 2.5L winner of the Blue Diamond is a major player here. Drawn to get every chance on the speed, his trump card is being the only winner on heavy going in the field. Coming here on the quick back-up after winning the G3 Pago Pago over 1200m will provide the colt with a great fitness base. He ran 3 lengths quicker than Sunlight on the same day/distance that day which bodes very well. Has paraded like this has been his target all along, looked one away last start and if he derives that improvement he’ll be mighty hard to beat. Top pick.

 

2. Santos – T.Clark (56.5kg) (Barrier 7): $9.50: Trialled brilliantly last Thursday on a heavy Randwick track, pulling away to win by 2L. In conjunction with a tough win in the G2 Skyline Stakes over 1200m at his last start the case is there for him getting through this going. Major knock is that Written By smacked Spin by 4L last week and that galloper ran Santos to 0.3L in the Skyline. Does get a nice run in the race and could be considered for exotics.

 

3. Almerton – T.Berry (56.5kg) (Barrier 8): $18: Bit of a wildcard here. Unbeaten in his two starts he drove hard late to win the G2 Todman stakes over 1200m last start – typically a great slipper lead-up race. Coolmore have just purchased 50% of this colt which speaks volumes. Hasn’t reached his ceiling yet and should get every chance to do so with a great barrier. $18 is great value, in the numbers. 

 

5. Performer – H.Bowman (56.5kg) (Barrier 16): $10: Trialled up nicely on a boggy Randwick track last Thursday, taking out the 737m trail by 0.3L (further 3.3L to third). He was last seen throwing Hugh Bowman off in the Todman as a hot $2 favourite, leaving the punters sour. Evidently has his quirks, not ideal in a high-pressure race. Gets a good run (Bowman in Winx-mode piloting a negative) with the blinkers on for the first time but has got synthetic hoof filler for the first time. Think there’s better value on offer but would consider for the wider exotics.  

 

10. Sunlight – L.Currie (54.5kg) (Barrier 5): $4.40: The dominant Magic Millions 2YO winner comes here looking for 5 wins on the trot and comes up at $4.40 favourite. She’s drawn to get a good run alongside Written By which makes the time difference of their last starts a major concern. She blitzed a heavy Cranbourne trial before her debut and runs like she’ll get through a heavy (shorter, faster stride). Have some key rivals ahead of her and the $4.40 doesn’t make her a betting prospect. Must for the exotic players however.

 

11. Estijaab– B.Avdulla (54.5kg) (Barrier 17): $13: Arguably should’ve beat Sunlight in the G2 Silver Slipper over 1100m when she was attacked in the lead by a runner who then dropped out. She then came out and narrowly won the G2 Reisling over 1200m in race-record time. Visually Sunlight was more impressive after they clashed but on the times their price differential shouldn’t be what it is. With the wide gate (definitely not a negative for mine) she could drift even further. Will be having something on.

 

13. Fiesta– K.McEvoy (54.5kg) (Barrier 20): $19: Will flop out the back from the widest gate, if anyone can weave a passage it’s McEvoy. Her best career runs have been on the soft tracks (3:1-2-0), highlighted by a win in the G3 Widden over 1100m suggesting she could get through the ground despite being by I Am Invincible. She’s probably second-tier here but one to consider for the exotics at big odds.

 

15. Seabrook– D.Oliver (54.5kg) (Barrier 12): $9: The stable were vocally keen on her chances if she made the Blue Diamond field after an unlucky third in the fillies prelude. Unfortunately, she didn’t make the field but came to Sydney and showed her dominance in the G2 Sweet Embrace, sitting 4 wide no cover for the 1200m and still pulling away to win by 0.5L on the soft 5. Another one we might not have seen the ceiling of, at $9 she can’t go around a loser.

 

 

Selections

 

1. Written By ($5)

2. Alymerton ($18)

3. Seabrook ($9)

4. Estijaab ($13)

 

 

Betting Plan

 

Keen that Written By will run a big race with Alymerton the best value in the race. Taking on Sunlight and getting something out of the fillies Seabrook and Estijaab.

 

Suggesting:

 

- 60% of the race bank on Written By: Half at the $5, half the tote

- 15% on Alymerton: Taking the $18

- 15% on Seabrook: Taking the $9

- 10% on Estijaab: Taking the tote price

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