2018 Tancred Stakes Betting Preview

Gailo Chop comes up a short $2 favourite in this year’s Tancred (formally BMW) stakes. Does he have any competition?

Wed, 28 Mar, 10:00 AM


Race Shape


The favourite Gailo Chop shapes to get complete control here, using his gate speed and crossing over from barrier 8. Single Gaze will likely drive up from the inside gate to hold his back. With Lasqueti Spirit being ridden quietly these days (could find 1-1 here) the leaders could get away with murder here and run it to suit themselves. Saying the best ground on the day will be the middle of the track with the rail out 4m. No disadvantage to run on but with the sharp turn those on pace will get to the best ground first.



The Key Runners


1. Gailo Chop – M.Zhara (59kg) (Barrier 8): $2: Clear-cut top selection. Gets plenty of favours with the predicted race shape. Gone to a new level this preparation recording two easy 1.5L wins fresh. Then stuck on strongly for second after pestered in front during the Australian Cup by Supply and Demand who dropped out sharply. That race had plenty of hard luck stories but he’s since put the writing on the board romping away to win the G1 Ranvet over 2000m by 3L last start and running over 6 lengths above the benchmark. With fitness on his side and the Wier-factor 2400m shouldn’t be an issue.


2. Almandin – K.McEvoy (59kg) (Barrier 10): $3.70: Drawn awkwardly out in barrier 10 he’ll likely be taken back to the last pair and be given a task with minimal tempo expected. Can’t doubt the class of this Melbourne Cup winner who should peak third-up. Was extremely unlucky in the Australian Cup and it’s easy to make a winning case for him if he got clear room. Step up to 2400m will suit but at the price and with a race shape that’s hard against him he’s only one for quinella and trifecta players.


3. Ambitious – C.Williams (59kg) (Barrier 3): $13: Japanese import that boasts some top-line form around world-class gallopers such as Maurice, Neorealism and Kitisan Black. Bringing that form would see him right in this. After trialling disappointingly, his Australian Cup run was inconclusive, grinding away in the worse part of the track. Place price is still unders for mine, would need to see him show a glimpse of his old self.


6. Auvray – J.Collett (59kg) (Barrier 2): $13: Looked as well as ever in the yard last start when winning the G3 Sky High over 2000m. His second-up record is only OK, sitting at 6:1-1-0 but is a winner of 4 from 8 over the 2400m. Maps to get a soft run just behind the speed, elevating him into fourth pick.


7. Libran – J.Collett (59kg) (Barrier 2): $17: Ran second to Auvray last start as a well-supported $3 favourite. Had every chance there and might need this run to peak next time over 2400m again. Could find a bit of map trouble with congestion in the mid-field position. Is a winner of 3 races over the distance.


9. Single Gaze – K.O’Hara (57kg) (Barrier 1): $9: Made an early move against Gailo Chop last start. Made some impression round the bend but the favourite drew clear late. She’s run a creditable race every start this preparation including driving home in the worse ground in the Australian Cup, all things being fair she could’ve won. Peak run last prep was fourth up over 2400m when she was unlucky not to win the Caulfield Cup, same conditions here hold her in good stead to run second.




1. Gailo Chop ($2)

2. Single Gaze ($9)

3. Almandin ($3.70)

4. Auvray ($13)



Betting Plan


Keeping it simple here with Gailo Chop a clear stand-out and nothing else long enough to save on.




- 100% of the race bank on Gailo Chop: taking anything over $2 if flucs go that way.

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