Rosehill (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Rosehill. Today’s best bet is in race 7.
Rosehill for their last Group 1 meeting of this season with the Vinery Stud Stakes for the 3YO fillies and the Tancred Stakes for our stayers. We have nine good races on the card here in what looks to be an intriguing day. The rail will be out 4m the circumference and we will be on good going.
QUADDIES (races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny Play: 1,2,3 - 4 - 4,7,8 - 2,5,10
Wide Play: 1,2,3 - 1,4,7,8 - 4,7,8,10 - 2,5,8,9,10,13
BEST BET: R7 – 4. LUVALUVA *SCRATCHED*
Next Best Bet: R3 – 6. NIETA
Best Roughie: R1 – 15. ONTHETAKE
R1 – 12.30pm. The Schweppervesence - 1400m.
No15 ONTHETAKE (BEST ROUGHIE) did a very good job when running though the line to win last start at Newcastle, I like how when Collett pushed her into the gap she took it and charged late, she will be better over further but gets good speed here to finish over the top of them.
No1 SPIN steps up to the 1400m and although he is yet to win a race, he brings fantastic form to this that has held up all season. 1400m shouldn’t be an issue at all for him and he has his chance.
No7 RINGERDINGDING did a lot wrong at start two when going back from the gate and never really got into the race after that. From gate 15 here, I think Zhara has to push forward here and that’s how he won his debut race, so it shouldn’t be an issue.
No6 OSORNO didn’t have the best of set ups to run out a strong 1400m last start and was just found wanting late. Bowman sticks on board here and now knows him much better. He gets a great run from barrier 5 and looks a big chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No15 ONTHETAKE
R2 – 1.10pm. The Daily Telegraph Neville Selwood Stakes - 2000m.
No8 ALMOST COURT rolls across from the gate here and looks the likely leader, he had all his own way when winning the Canberra Cup in pretty slick time, the form around him has stood up well and if he is left alone in front again he will catch them out.
No1 ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN looks to have trialled in good order coming into his Australian debut and I like that Waller has started him out over the 2000m here as he brings very good 2000m form across from Europe, winning six of 17 he has good ability.
No3 TALLY closed off well enough second-up at Randwick where we have seen the form out of the race stand up already. Now that he has had that run at the 2000m he should be much more grounded and fit enough to run well.
No6 ARBEITSAM jumps quickly to the 2000m here, I don’t know if he has the speed to lead almost court here, and if he cant get to the lead he will be vulnerable as he may not be fit enough to sustain a strong 2000m. Not today, maybe next start.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 TALLY
R3 – 1.45pm. E – Group Security Star Kingdom Stakes - 1200m.
No6 NIETA (NEXT BEST BET) should have won first-up simple as that, C Williams fell asleep then gave an excuse that he was disappointed in her last 200m. She ran the fastest last 600m, 400m & 200m of the meeting. So there is no shock to see a jockey change here. From the good gate she settles a touch closer in the run here and should blow them away late.
No4 BURNING PASSION was quite good fresh in a solid run race, he has had a good trial since that and that’s how this horse seems to run at his best, after he has been freshened after a trial.
No12 SPRIGHT has been trialing well in the lead up to her resumption here, smart choice to scratch her last week, as she is no good in the wet track, and she gets dry conditions to suit her here and from the good gate she will be in the finish.
No13 BOLERO KING deserves his crack at this grade after two good wins in lesser levels this time in and should run well down in the weights here.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 SPRIGHT
R4 – 2.20pm. Jim Beam Emancipation Stakes - 1500m.
No3 DIXIE BLOSSOMS didn’t have the best of luck last start in the Coolmore, just as she was about to start her run she got chopped out and did a good job to pick herself up late and finish off well. She has the best data in this race over the mile and she gets one more chance here.
No1 DAYSEE DOOM broke through for a well deserved Group 1 win last start in the Coolmore. She draws gate 1 here which is a touch of an issue here as she could well get cluttered up in the run and she is at her best when rolling along.
No4 PROMPT RESPONSE finds Olly here and was solid enough in the Coolmore when closing off well. There isn’t much speed in this race and I feel as if Olly will take her forward from the good gate and at her only run at the mile last spring, she was unlucky.
No8 OREGON’S DAY was fantastic when stepping up in grade to Group 1 level last start, she always looked as if she had that ability and it was good to see her put one on the board. She can sit just behind the leaders here and just needs a touch of luck turning for home.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 PROMPT RESPONSE
R5 – 2.55pm. Tricolours Racing & Syndications Tulloch Stakes - 2000m.
No7 PRIMITIVO gets out to 2000m finally and was awesome when finishing off in the Canberra Guineas as he was a mile off them coming into the straight, he was the sectional star of the Day, he can stamp his derby ticket here with a win.
No11 TANGMERE missed out on a run in the Rosehill Guineas last week and now is drawn to get a good run here. Up to the 2000m is just perfect for him as he has been looking for that ground. Just focus on his last 400m at Randwick where he was brilliant and he is right in this.
No6 MONGOLIAN MARSHALL has been well backed in early markets and is drawn to get a perfect run here and comes from the all-conquering Baker – Foresman yard who need to be respected when they come across the ditch. His times stack up well with better horses at his last two starts.
No1 ASTORIA didn’t get the best of rides last start / didn’t look to be too comfortable around the Valley last start. She has a solid enough record at the track and is a derby placegetter in the spring and looks to be well set up here.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 PRIMITIVO
R6 – 3.30pm. Kia Tancred Stakes - 2400m.
No2 ALMANDIN gets out to 2400m here and should be much more suited third-up from a spell here as he has an outstanding record at 2400m and beyond, he was off the map in the Australian Cup and had no luck at all. He should be very hard to beat here.
No3 AMBITIOUS Was ok enough in his Australian debut in the Australian Cup when working through the line well enough. I expect from the gate that Williams will stride forward and dominate the race here, as in Japan at his best form it was when he was able to roll along and give a strong kick.
No1 GAILO CHOP has been outstanding this time in winning three of the four starts this time in and the other being in the Australian Cup when having no luck. The quick back up and the step up to 2400m don’t look to be an issue at all for him here.
No6 AUVRAY deserves his crack at the Group 1 here after a strong win last start over the 2000m in the Sky High. He gets a good run on the map for Collett here and he is a winner four times over 2400m.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 AMBITIOUS
R7 – 4.10pm. Vinery Stud Stakes - 2000m.
*SCRATCHED* No4 LUVALUVA (BEST BET) was awesome when winning the Kembla Classic over an unsuitable distance last start. The step up to 2000m is more than ideal here as she was a winner of the Wakeful in the spring coming against the bias that day. She looks to have come back much better this time in and now that she is around her peak distance good luck beating her.
No1 ALOISIA should have finished much closer last start when getting knocked down, she still ran the quickest last 200m of the race there, and now out to 2000m she is perfectly suited.
No7 UNFORGOTTEN gets Bowman here from the good barrier and looks well suited up to the 2000m here as she ran right through the line when winning last start, she has always looked an Oaks horse and gets her chance.
No8 DANZDANZDANCE started fav against the boys in the NZ Derby and we have seen the boys come across here and run well enough, I need to respect her SP and give her a chance from a good gate here.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 UNFORGOTTEN
R8 – 4.50pm. Mounties 50th Birthday Doncaster Prelude - 1500m.
No4 INTERLOCUTER looks set to peak second-up the way this preparation has been planned with an aim to get him into the Doncaster next weekend. He has very good second-up stats and was a winner in both Australian second-up runs. He gets a great run from the gate here and is hard to beat.
No7 SPECTROSCOPE was good enough first-up at Newcastle when not having much luck. He was a winner of this race last year and this looks to be a target for him here.
No8 MISTER SEA WOLF was very good fresh at Newcastle and I have said for the last six months that we would see the best of him this time in, if he was to win this he is a live Doncaster hope.
No10 CELLARMAN was good when stepping up in grade last time in when not having a lot of luck. He is low flying and gets a great run on the map here and looks to be a chance again.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 SPECTROSCOPE
R9 – 5.30pm. Sydney’s West App Handicap - 1400m.
No10 TRIBAL WISDOM smashed the line last start in a race which wasn’t at all run to suit, he looks set to peak third-up from a spell and gets a good run on the map here from gate 10 for Olly and he just needs to overcome Moroney’s average Sydney record.
No2 MY NORDIC HERO was very good at his first Australian start in the spring and we were all told that he just needed more time to acclimatize. The trial coming into this was quite good and he is a winner first-up in the past.
No5 OSBORNE BULLS was beaten by barrier 1 at Kembla and ran home in some really serious sectionals there. Getting to gate 2 instead of gate 1 is a much better proposition here and Avdulla may have him that touch closer in the run.
No13 BEAU GESTE was saved for this race second up instead of running in group company last week and he was very good fresh when charging through the line, the step up here to 1400m here is much more suitable and he is a winner second-up last time in.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 TRIBAL WISDOM