2018 ATC Oaks Betting Preview

The betting says this is a race in 5, with the top 5 saddle cloths all well in single-figure odds and the next elect at $17. Does this make the first 4 easy or can something from outside the market surprise at odds?

Oddschecker
 | 
Thu, 12 Apr, 9:08 AM

Race Shape:

 

Speed looks even. Leading worked for Hiyaam last start so I don’t see them changing tactics especially from gate 1. She’ll likely be joined by Chilly Cha Cha in the lead. Countessa Vanessa may work into the 1-1 form gate 5 on the outside of Danzedanzedanze.

 

Fellow Kiwis Savvy Coup and She’s A Treasure will trail them. Aloisia and Luvaluva will be looking for spot from wider gates and could be cast. The rest will be off-mid-field with Wild Sea and Unforgotten bringing in the rear. Unforgotten could look for a trail behind Chilly Cha Cha or Countessa Vanessa but risk being deep.

 

The Key Runners:

 

1. Aloisia – M.Zhara (56kg) (Barrier 9): $6.50: Tough runner to asses. She started a dominant favourite in the VRC (Kennedy) Oaks and had a plethora of excuses there. Caught wide on speed after playing up being re-plated behind the gates. Her subsequent form has been disappointing finishing 5th in the Vanity and 13th in the Australian Guineas. She finally hit some form again (money for her) last time out in the Vinery Stud Stakes, running a good 3rd to Hiyaam in the worst part of the track. Have to take her on trust over 2400m. One for the minors.

 

2. Hiyaam – M.Dee (56kg) (Barrier 1): $4.80: Broke through at the top level last start in the Vinery with a daring front-running ride from M.Dee. She’s been knocking on the door having run third in the G2 Phar Lap over 1500m the start prior and 3rd in the VRC Oaks to Pinot. She was closing hard in the VRC Oaks so 2500m shouldn’t be an issue. Been well-backed $7 into $4.80 already. Must respect.    

 

3. Unforgotten – C.Brown (56kg) (Barrier 7): $4.20: Arguably the best run in the Vinery last time out. Came from near last and made up some 8 lengths as the widest runner in the straight. A Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo mare makes for an interesting pedigree, the mares line says she’ll stay every bit of 2400m. Has run top 2 in 7 of her 6 most recent outings, only failure she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia, genuine line chaser. She’s getting out to a backable price now from the opening $3.50.

 

4. Savvy Coup – C.Johnson (56kg) (Barrier 2): $7.50: Last-start winner of the NZ Oaks. Out-staying her opposition off a solid speed to win by 1.3L. The NZ form usually stacks right up in these big races but hasn’t done so in the carnival thus far. Beat fellow Kiwi Danzedanzedanze over 1600m in the Karaka Classic but 2400m is a different league. Could have at double figures, only for exotics at the current quote.

 

5. Luvaluva – K.McEvoy (56kg) (Barrier 13): $5.75: Comes here on the back of gallant wins in both the G3 Kembla Classic over 1600m and the G3 Adrian Knox over 2000m last weekend. The spaces haven’t been large but she’s not a horse that puts holes in her opposition, genuine stayer who can sustain a run. Ran a commendable fourth after making a move almost 900m out in the VRC Oaks, so the 2400m suits. Looking like she’ll peak in the yard 4th up here after likely not being fully wound-up last start due to irregular blood levels which forced her to miss a possible Vinery run. Major knock is the race shape from barrier 13 but if anyone can steer her to victory it’s McEvoy. Right in the mix.

 

6. Bring Me Roses – L.Currie (56kg) (Barrier 12): $31: After her first two runs this preparation she looked a brilliant chance in this race, getting into single figures in the all-in markets at one point. Running 2nd in the G3 Vanity over 1400m first-up then going then sticking on for 3rd in a high-pressure G1 Australian Guineas. Since coming to Sydney she’s seemingly lost a leg however. Running down the track in both the Coolmore and the Vinery. Ran a great 2nd in the VRC Oaks, beating anything in this field that went there. On trust the $31 looks overs.

 

12. Danzedanzedanze – M.Walker (56kg) (Barrier 3): $17: Arguably boasts better NZ form that her country mates, having run a slashing 3rd in the G1 NZ Derby over 2400m against the boys. She started favourite there and got checked with only 200m to go but still found the line. Knock is that she was very disappointing in the Vinery. Sat 2nd in the run and faded badly to finish 5th, 6.8L astern of Hiyaam who lead all the way. If she didn’t have the Vinery run she’d be right in the mix but that has scared me off.

 

Selections:

1. Unforgotten ($4.20)

2. Luvaluva ($5.75)

3. Hiyaam ($4.80)

4. Bring Me Roses ($31)

 

Betting Plan:

Seriously tough race to be confident in with question marks on the Kiwi form and all fillies in the market having genuine claims.

 

Suggesting:

 

- 50% of the race bank on Unforgotten: The way she’s drifting we could get $4.50+, would wait.

- 50% of the race bank on Luvaluva: Taking the $5.75.

 

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