2018 Queen Elizabeth Stakes Betting Preview

All eyes will be on Winx as she bids to equal the great Black Caviar’s 25 wins on the trot in this year’s Queen Elizabeth. She once again commands a huge percentage of the market at $1.18, but there does look to be some value around her.

Oddschecker
 | 
Thu, 12 Apr, 9:08 AM

Race Shape:

 

Pace looks moderate with Classic Uniform likely holding the lead from barrier 4 over Gailo Chop drawn to his immediate outside. First-up import Success Days has lead around arguably much better fields than this overseas and holds the pace key here. He could certainly get out quick from 8 and has the pace to make this a real 2000m race. Hoping he does.

 

Consensus and Odeon will form the next pair off-pace, in front of Comin’ Through and Happy Clapper working across with Winx tagging him. Ambitious and Humidor will get back in the last pair.

 

The Key Runners:

 

1. Happy Clapper – K.McEvoy (59kg) (Barrier 9): $16: Brilliant winner of last week’s Doncaster Mile, shotting up the inside for B.Shinn and running a personal best 9.6L above benchmark time. He’s only missed the top 2 twice from his last 10 runs. Both of which were over 2000m against Winx; last year’s Cox Plate and Queen Elizabeth. Other runs including a loss to Classic Uniform over the track and distance give a strong impression he’s a top-line miler. Maps fine here but if Success Days makes it a proper test he could be found wanting. Trifecta or First 4 chance, happy to take him on otherwise.

 

2. Gailo Chop – M.Zhara (59kg) (Barrier 5): $14: Maps well back to his preferred 2000m distance after he was found wanting over 2400m in the Tancred. He did have excuses being attacked by Lasqueti Spirit in front. Distance record is impeccable (13:7:1-0) and if they water the track that’ll be no problem. Again, a query over how hard Success Days goes, could be left a sitting shot for the run-ons. A must for exotics.

 

3. Humidor – M.Zhara (59kg) (Barrier 1): $12: Never missed a place at the distance 6:3-2-1 including fully testing Winx in last year’s Cox Plate where he recorded a monster time in excess of 12 lengths above benchmark. That figure sees him a clear second pick here. No major concern over his latest effort in the Doncaster. Not at his top in the parade and in the worst part of the track. Prior to the Cox Plate he also ran below average in the Turnbull, has a history of bouncing back on grand final day. Only knock is the gate, but he’d lob out the back anyway.

 

4. Ambitious – C.Williams (59kg) (Barrier 7): $31: Turned in a brilliant performance in the Tancred last start, checked at the 600m and held-up coming the final furlong. Despite this he ran on strongly in the worst part of the track to grab second from Almandin. Having finally showed a glimpse of his top-line Japanese form (once beaten Kitisan Black and been competitive with the likes of Maurice). Despite the 6:2-0-0 record at 2000m this is his best distance and could get the tempo to suit. Right in the place chances.

 

5. Success Days – J.Moreira (59kg) (Barrier 8): $34: Most interesting runner of the field. Holds the key to the race shape. His best chance of running a big race here is to get out and get rolling. His last two outings beaten 42 and 13 lengths for last aren’t inspiring on paper but those were world class middle-distance events. Outside of Winx this is much easier. Ran Johannes Vermeer to 0.5L over 2011m and was only 5L behind the Taj Mahal over 2012m after being used as a pacemaker in the G1 Irish Champions. Could surprise in running a hole.

 

9. Winx – H.Bowman (57kg) (Barrier 10): $1.18: Not much you can say that hasn’t already been said. Going for 25 wins in a row. Placing her bid to become the best we’ve ever seen (if she wasn’t already). Admittedly this is her toughest test this campaign and she does have a chance of being caught 3 wide, without cover from the outside gate. She’s proven time and time again that she can overcome anything this racing game throws at her and will be winning here.

 

Selections:

1. Winx ($1.18)

2. Humidor ($12)

3. Ambitious ($31)

4. Success Days ($34)

 

Betting Plan:

Another case of trying to find some value around Winx. Value lies with Humidor and the two recent internationals.

 

Suggesting:

 

- 60% of the race bank on Humidor in the Winx Out Market @ $3.20.

- 40% of the race bank on the First 4: 9/3,4/2,3,4,5/1,2,4,5 ($40=250%)

 

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