Randwick (Saturday) Betting Preview & Tips
Betting tips for every race at Randwick. Today’s best bet is in race 6
Randwick for Day 2 of the Championships has arrived, we are graced by the presence of the great mare Winx who goes for 25 in a row and equaling the great Black Caviar if she was to win today. Outside of that we have three other Group 1’s the Sydney Cup in particular looks a fascinating race. Weather brilliant in the lead up with a good track.
QUADDIES (races 7-8-9-10)
Skinny Play: 9 - 1,6,13 - 3,4,17 - 2,8,11
Wide Play: 4,9 - 1,2,5,6,9,10,13,17,18,19 - 1,3,4,7,9,17 - 1,2,3,8,9,10,11
BEST BET: R6 – 5. Luvaluva
Next Best Bet: R5 – 1. Viridine
Best Roughie: R8 – 6. Per Stwick
R1 – 11.25am. China Horse Club Mile - 1600m.
No3 Momentum Factor was a strong winner at Warwick Farm last start running right through the line, big step up to the mile here, but Walker rides him cold from 13 and charges at them late.
No12 Greysful Glamour was strong through the line at the provincials last start, I think that race will rate well however. The step to the 1600m shouldn’t be an issue here, as she has had the two good 1400m runs to give her good grounding.
No11 Bold Arial probably rolls along and takes up the lead here from the barrier. She has a quick jump up in distance, but being from the Gai yard she won’t be lacking in fitness.
No9 Futooh gets Collett back on board here and is a winner at Randwick in the past. She had no luck from barrier 1 last start and should have some room to move here.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 Momentum Factor
R2 – 12.05pm. The Agency South Pacific Classic - 1400m.
No1 Torvill should be suited back in grade here after a solid enough run in the Vinery last start, her form before that was exceptional and Collett has won on her in the past.
No2 Isaurian should be much better suited coming up to the 1400m here after two very good runs back this time in. Gate 8 does make it tricky for Bowman though.
No4 Diamond Tathagata wasn’t too bad at Canberra last start despite carrying the big weight, he has had a freshen since then and the trial was good, ideally he would want it softer.
No8 California Turbo was a strong winner at Newcastle last start, this is a big step up in grade here from a Newcastle class 1, but he does get a big drop in weight.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 Diamond Tathagata
R3 – 12.40pm. Percy Sykes Stakes - 1200m.
No6 Pure Elation is a horse whom I have been a fan of for a long time, and she finally produced an effort that I thought she could produce last start when breaking the maiden in blistering fashion. I expect that they will ride her in the similar cold fashion and she could blow them away again here.
No10 Sister Sledge was good on debut behind the Slipper winner and Pure Elation was only a neck away, easy to tie them in like that. She should improve off that debut run where she was caught wide, she has a chance again.
No7 Cristobal gets a good run in behind the speed here and should settle much closer in the run here, compared to the run behind Sunlight as she got much further back then when she won on debut. From gate 4 Avdulla holds his spot here and could end in the 1, 1.
No2 Fiesta didn’t have the best of runs in the Slipper, McEvoy is able to sit just behind the speed here and will need that touch of luck coming around the turn here, and if he gets that this filly is in the finish.
VALUE RUNNER: No10 Sister Sledge
R4 – 1.15pm. Polytrack Provincial Championships Final - 1400m.
No1 Just Dreaming has had the best grounding for this race, with a good run fresh in a hot Triscay, strong when winning her heat, and then topped it off with an awesome run in the Group 1 Coolmore. Bowman just sits in behind them here and she should be too good.
No3 Bastia will be as fresh as they come in this race, given that he would be looking for further than 1400m second-up. McEvoy has a lot of options from the gate, but I expect him to stride forward.
No10 Serene Miss should be unbeaten and now draws a horrid gate in 17 here for Collett, but I expect him to drag her right back and pick his way through the field here and hope that het gets all the luck.
No13 Newsfan is a horse who is rapidly improving and probably has the most upside of any horse in this race, love the way he has been savaging the line this time in and I need to keep him on my side.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 Bastia
R5 – 1.50pm. Arrowfield 3yo Sprint - 1200m.
No1 Viridine (NEXT BEST BET) comes back to the 3yo level here after some very good runs back in open age Group 1 company. In his own age group he is unbeaten in Sydney, you have to respect that and he did charge through the line behind In Her Time and English last start. Bowman just needs to keep him out of trouble here from gate 8, and he should be too strong for them.
No3 Pariah didn’t have any luck at all in the William Reid in Melbourne fresh. He has a good enough second-up record which has resulted in seconds in Group 1’s and one to Menari. He has the good grounding for 1200m second-up and is hard to beat.
No10 I Am Excited has been low flying this time in and should get the perfect run again behind the speed here from gate 4. She does step up against the big boys here but after three big wins in three runs you cannot knock her here.
No8 Booker comes down from Melbourne here and does bring quite good form to this, and the Melbourne horses have been performing this Autumn. First run in Sydney is a touch of an issue here, but I feel as If she needs to roll forward here from gate 7 to have her best chance.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 Booker
R6 – 2.25pm. James Boags Premium Australian Oaks - 2400m.
No5 Luvaluva (BEST BET) was fantastic when running through the line last week with the 60kgs, giving the rest of the horses 7kgs. Usually do not give much credence to weights, but have to with that differential. She has been my Oaks horse all along, and an added bonus is that she is the only horse that has Kementari form in this event. Sargent has won the Oaks with a horse coming out of the Adrian Knox before and she looks the strongest stayer.
No4 Savvy Coup is the NZ Oaks winner, and we always need to respect the NZ Oaks form as it stands up every year. She looked to be very strong through the line in her past two and I can't see any of the Kiwis out of that beating her. She has had the run at 2400m, which is oh so important here.
No2 Hiyaam ran them into the ground in the Vinery and was much too strong for them, yet is nearly double the price of Unforgotton. I don’t expect Dee to employ the same tactics here as he did in the Vinery, he will sit just behind the speed here and roll into the race from the 600m again. She was very good in the VRC Oaks in the Spring.
No3 Unforgotten was a good chaser behind Hiyaam last start in the Vinery in what looked to be a great Oaks trial, my one reservation was that she is a Fastnet Rock, even though she has Galileo on the dam side. I just struggle to find a Fastnet Rock winning an Oaks.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 Luvaluva
R7 – 3.05pm. Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes -2000m.
No9 Winx there are no words to describe her, insert all the positive amazing compliments one can give a horse. She is the best we will ever see, likely to be her Autumn swan song. Get out there and enjoy her. Gate 10 means Bowman has her out of trouble.
No4 Ambitious was very good in the Tancred when having not much luck, he probably should have won that race if Lasqueti Spirit didn’t fall back into him at the 500m. He gets rock hard going and 2000m. I am imploring C Williams to go forward here and sit off Gailo Chop and put it too him from the 600m. That is his Japanese profile and gate 7 means he should do that.
No3 Humidor gets the same sort of run here as he did in the Cox Plate when he scared the life out of Winx. Shinn back on for the first time since too. Quick back up, just like last year’s Cox Plate. If he brings that peak run again, we have an interesting race.
No1 Happy Clapper gets no luck on the map here and will need KMac to bring something out of the box here. His win last week was awesome, he has backed up twice into this race and has a placing to Winx to his name, he will run well.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 Ambitious
R8 – 3.45pm. Schweppes Sydney Cup - 3200m.
No6 Pre Stwick (BEST ROUGHIE) brings across fantastic Japanese form to this race, with runs behind Fame Game (started Melbourne Cup fav) and Albert (Pre post fav last 2 years) he was a good winner at Sapporo in September, before running into Suave Richard who is one of the better stayers in Japan. He rounded off his prep into this with runs over 3600m behind Albert, and 3400m behind Fame Game. If he has come over well, he can win this even with Moreria.
No1 Almandin is a Melbourne Cup winner who gets into this with only 57kgs and is back to his best this time in, all three runs have been fantastic and he was very strong through the line last start when winning the Tancred. Olly knows him well and he has his chance.
No13 Sir Charles Road drops 6kgs from last week into this, and that is massive after a strong win last week. He was very good in the Auckland Cup when beaten just on a length, he can only improve into this as he was a month between runs last week. Gets a soft run from gate 4.
No2 Who Shot The Barman has a good 3200m record and this is his swansong I am told. He has been working well towards this run, this time in with his last two especially being red light runs saying he is going to peak on the big day here. He was a winner of the MV Cup against a few of his rivals here in the spring.
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 Pre Stwick
R9 – 4.25pm. Coolmore Legacy Stakes - 1600m.
No3 Dixie Blossoms has the best Randwick mile record and figures coming into this race here, she was just too far back last start. She comes to this fourth up, when she got to the Randwick mile last prep, she belted them and ran outstanding figures, luck needed form the gate (16) but she is flying this time in despite defeats at her past two.
No17 Alizee looked like she was going to trot in the Vinery last start, but she found that 2000m to be a whole new world. She comes back to the mile and I like that set up for this race. She is drawn to get that soft run she likes, and at the Randwick mile last time in, she was dynamic.
No4 Prompt Response is a mare who is always thereabouts and will crack it for a race like this, one of these days before she is off to stud. From 7 Shinn has plenty of options here if no one wants to lead he can take it up and give them something to catch.
No1 Daysee Doom has to go forward from the gate here and when she draws wide, we seem to write her off and she just produces these amazingly tough runs. She just doesn’t want to lie down. I don’t want her beating me at a big price again, have her in the quaddie.
VALUE RUNNER: No17 Alizee
R10 – 5.05pm. TAB Sapphire Stakes - 1200m.
No11 Sugar Bella should have won last start, she let the leader get away in front and couldn’t get into it late. Much more speed on for her here, and Collett will have her 2-3 off the fence with cover and she should sprint over them late.
No8 White Moss resumed like a bomb last time in, and has been trialing well coming into this prep, this looks to be a target race fresh for mine and she gets a great run from the gate here.
No2 Ghisoni has trialled quite well coming into this and is a very nice mare on her day, we haven’t seen the best of her for a while, but the trial was very encouraging.
No3 Spright sprinted well to win the Star Kingdom fresh for a good win. From gate 7, she gets that good run behind the speed here and can sprint over them again.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 White Moss