2018 Memsie Stakes Betting Preview

With the likes of Vega Magic ($2.90*), Kementari ($4.40*) and Happy Clapper ($5.50*) heading the betting, the first Group 1 of the Victorian Spring looks to be a cracker. No doubt punters will be watching this replay time and time again as these stars head into their campaigns.

Oddschecker
 | 
Wed, 29 Aug, 12:00 AM

 


Race Shape

 

 

The rail goes out to the +6m position from the +3m it was in on the 18th. That meeting played towards those on-pace until the rain mid-way through the meeting set in, giving those coming down the middle a good chance.  With inclement weather in the coming days, a similar pattern is expected.  

 

Good tempo expected with Vega Magic and Jungle Edge leading them around. Showtime and Dollar for Dollar next. Grunt should be holding a prominent position from 1. Kings Will Dream and Kementari have the toe to be next, but after giving up his only ace and snagging back last start will Glynn do similar? Happy Clapper looks poised to strike on their backs.

 

 

 

The Key Runners:

 

 

1. Happy ClapperM.Zhara (59kg) (Barrier 7): $5.50: The old marvel excels first-up, winning his last two first-up, taking the Randwick 1300m track record with him in the latest. Two trials have been good, including a 1.6L 5th in the hot heat behind Siege of Quebec, Home of the Brave and Showtime. Maps to get every chance here and is proven on the soft if any rain is to come. Had the wood on Kementari last time they met at 1500m (when Kementari had the fitness edge, like here) then put 4L on him in the Doncaster. At each-way odds this 8yo looks the most bomb-proof bet. 

 

 

3. Vega MagicD.Oliver (59kg) (Barrier 6): $2.90: Dominant winner of this race last year, rocketing him into Everest contention. He comes off a 3L romp last start in the G3 Bletchingly over 1200m. Voodoo Lad franked that form winning the G3 Aurie’s Star at his next start. However, the blinkers come off here and he steps up to 1400m – a trip perhaps more ideal for some of his rivals. Could this be to bring him on third-up? Deservedly hard in the market, but it’s hard to take anything under $3.

 

 

7. Kings Will Dream J.Allen (59kg) (Barrier 11): $11: Sticks at 1400m after producing the run of the race last time out in the G2 Lawrence at the track/trip – made up some 7L in the straight after being 4 wide prior to turning to only miss Showtime by 0.7L. This trip is short of his best (hot tempo may mitigate this somewhat) and the Weir camp won’t have him peaking until his grand final in the Caulfield Cup. However, he’s the one I want to take out of the Lawrence and at $11 you could certainly play each-way.

 

 

8. KementariG.Schofield (58.5kg) (Barrier 8): $4.40: Race tactics/rides have been questionable to say the least in both this entire’s starts as a 4yo. His form could (should) easily read x12 this prep, but his price reflects this. Maps to get a beautiful run here again, but he did last start and was 8 off the speed prior to turning. Looked 200% in the yard last start, so comes here in great condition. He could have the X-factor to put this race to bed, but I’d want to see him do it as a 4yo before diving into this price.  

 

 

9. Grunt L.Currie (59kg) (Barrier 1): $9.50: Maps to need all sorts of luck from barrier 1 with Currie aboard. Paraded well below his peak in the Lawrence where his run was a pass. His 3yo figures suggest he relishes fast tempos and may get one here. He’d need to come on plenty in the parade to warrant consideration, would rather be with the proven older gallopers here.

 

 

10. ShowtimeJ.Allen (59kg) (Barrier 2): $11: Got his time in the sun last start when winning a star-studded P. B. Lawrence. He used his fitness advantage well rolling along in front and staved off some brave challenges by Hartnell, Widgee Turf and Kings Will Dream. Loses both his fitness edge and leaders roll here. Last time he was third-up, he met Happy Clapper (who was first-up) in the G1 Canterbury Stakes for a 5L defeat. Looking to others.

 

 

 

 

Selections:

 

 

          Happy Clapper ($5.50*)
 

          Vega Magic ($2.90*)
 

          Kings Will Dream ($11*)
 

          Kementari ($4.40*)
 

 

 

 

Betting Plan:

 

 

Playing a straight bat with the entire race bank on Happy Clapper each-way. Can see how plenty of others win but not how he misses a hole.

 

 

Suggested Play:

 

 

100% of the race bank on Happy Clapper each-way ($5.50*/$2*).  

 

 

 

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