Horses to Follow: Week Ending 01/08/2018

A stayer recapturing old form, a potential star filly and a mare in form; all with eyes on the big Spring features comprise this week’s horses to follow.

Oddschecker
 | 
Mon, 3 Sep, 12:00 AM

 

Libran – Randwick Race 7: 3rd ($41): The 8yo returned some massive figures third up in last weekend’s Chelmsford Stakes. Jumping from 13 the stayer settled at the rear of the field, showing no early toe over 1600m. However, from widest on the turn (worst part of the track) he’s made up a stack of ground late. Hitting the line in a race fastest 33.42s final 600m.

 

He’s shown glimpses of that turn of foot which propelled him into 2016 Sydney Cup favouritism in 2016. Convinced he’s come back as well as ever. Already a Group 2 winner of the 2016 Chairman’s Stakes over 2600m, he’ll be racing at the elite level wherever he goes. Does look over the odds in some futures markets thanks to the spruik horses carrying massive percentage.

 

Record: 35:9-4-2

 

Possible Targets: The Metropolitan (2400m), Melbourne Cup (3200m).

 

Pure Elation – Randwick Race 8: 1st ($5.50): The obvious for the week. Made it three wins on the trot with an explosive performance in the Group 2 Furious Stakes. Her figures for the race were moderate, however the way she put paid to the field in two strides when a gap opened on the fence was scintillating.

 

What makes this filly even more exciting is the amount of improvement she has left. She’s done this at only 70-80% fitness. Undoubtedly with bigger goals in mind. The soundness issues which forced her out of a Blue Diamond campaign look a thing of the past. She’s ready to continue to build this picket fence.

 

Record: 6:3-1-0

 

Possible Targets: The Golden Rose (1400m) (Not Nominated), The Flight Stakes (1600m).

 

Oregon’s Day – Caulfield Race 7: 5th ($61): Settling back close to last, she was afforded a great tow into the race by Glynn Schofield on Kementari (who once again endured a less than ideal run) and has run out of her skin to finish 5th beaten only 0.7L by Humidor. Her final 800m of 45.63s was surpassed by only King’s Will Dream with 45.42s.

 

Parading close to her top physically a race like the Let’s Elope at Flemington over 1400m in two weeks’ time looks ideal. She may then have a freshen into some of the big races for the mares in Spring, searching for that elusive Group 1.

 

Record: 22:4-5-2

 

Possible Targets: The Myer Classic (1600m).

 

Suggested Bets:

 

Libran: Sits at $15 in a Metropolitan market dominated by Auvilius at $4. This represents solid enough value for a small early play.

Pure Elation: Has taken over as a dominant $4.60 favourite for the Flight Stakes and sits at $15 for the Golden Rose despite not holding a nomination. Could take either of those prices. Need to see her run a strong 1400m before diving in at a mile.

Oregon’s Day: Represents good value at around the $17 mark. If she keeps up this form that price won’t be around on the day. Recommending a small play.

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