2018 Newcastle Gold Cup Betting Preview
Wyong Cup winner Carzoff comes up the $4.50* favourite but looks to need another McEvoy peach to get over the line. We believe the value lies outside this Waller import with two $7* shots the main plays of the race.
The rail goes back to the True after being in the +8 and +10m positions the last two meetings. The track played evenly in the latter position, but after a good rest the inside 6 lanes should hold up deep into the card and provide a few winners.
The speed is very interesting. Cismontane was sent back to last in the Rowley Mile, does he go back to showing early toe here? You’d have to think so. Dark Eyes with the blinkers off for the first time could also be ridden more conservatively. Segenhoe, Goathland and Harper’s Choice could then be the first 3. Either way, it maps to be a truly run affair.
The Key Runners:
1. Auvray – T.Angland (59.5kg) (Barrier 4): $7*: Been sent back to the trials after a solid first-up outing when 5th behind the smart Avilius. A winner of the G3 Sky High Stakes over 2000m last prep, he has a class edge over plenty of these and maps to get a lovely run behind a hot speed. Only negative is his fitness base for a 2300m run coming off a 1900m race then a 1200m trial. He was off a 2400m Saturday win when running a narrow second in this race last year.
2. Carzoff – K.McEvoy (54kg) (Barrier 4): $4.50*: Afforded an absolute peach by McEvoy when winning a traditional lead-up in the Wyong Cup last start. Meets Harper’s Choice 2kg worse off for a 4L defeat and maps awkwardly again. The 6yo is consistent but does struggle to string two together. Looking elsewhere at the price, have him marked far closer to Auvray and Harper’s Choice.
5. Harper’s Choice – B.Avdulla (54kg) (Barrier 13): $7*: Never looked to settle on the steady tempo set by Dark Eyes in the Wyong Cup, battling away for 5th. Despite G.Ryan being a noted ‘fresh horse’ trainer, this gelding did put in a soft run second-up last campaign then bounced back third-up to win the listed Winter Cup over 2400m. Angland to Avdulla no knock, he definitely has the early toe to slot in wherever comfortable from 13. Can see him turning the tables.
7. Dark Eyes – T.Clark (54kg) (Barrier 1): $7*: Blinkers off an odd move after a brilliant second in the Wyong Cup last start. Shalmaneser looked to have him covered 200m out but to the gelding’s credit he fought back gamely and looked to be going great through the line. However, he did get it all his own way up front there, a liberty he will not be assured here with plenty of speed to his outside. Clark sticking is a plus but plenty of Waterhouse Bott runners have been struggling to complete the course of late. Looking elsewhere.
14. Segenhoe – C.Reith (54kg) (Barrier 6): $27*: In a map full of questions, he’s looks the one true leader. Coming back from setting the pace in a 2700m event at Canterbury, he’ll be batting away at the end of 2300m for sure. T.Clark to C.Reith is a negative, likewise that Collett is riding the other Cunningham trained horse – one would assume the boyfriend gets the pick. However, he’s not the most difficult horse to ride and if an on-pace advantage does develop he’s a chance at odds.
Harper’s Choice ($7*)
We're going for a bit of value and are leaving out the $4.50* Wyong Cup Winner, opting instead to invest most of the bank on the two $7* shots; Harper's Choice and Auvray.
45% of the Race Bank on Harper’s Choice @ $7*.
45% of the Race Bank on Auvray @ $7*.
10% of the Race Bank on Segenhoe @ $27*.
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