The rail goes to the True position for this meeting after being out 10m from the 1600-WP, +7m remainder last time out. That day saw horses that raced on the rails and closer to the inside/centre of the track to advantage. With it back to the True today and the Soft 5 conditions, don’t be surprised if we are presented with a great surface and a possible upgrade as there is no rain forecast for Sydney leading up to the day.
There doesn’t look to be a huge amount of early speed here with It’s Somewhat and Religify capable of finding the front early. Expect Ace High to go forward at the start too while the likes of Winx and Unforgotten will be in the back half of the field along with the grand old stayer, Who Shot Thebarman.
1. Le Romain – J.McDonald (59kg) (Barrier 2): $12*: This guy is proven at weight-for-age level and maps to be close to the speed throughout. James McDonald gets the steer and you can be sure he will give the gelding every chance in the run. Comes into this off a seventh in the Tramway after being caught wide the trip. No risk of that happening here and third-up will be peaking. One of the choices for the quinella.
3. It’s Somewhat – C. Brown (59kg) (Barrier 5): $81*: Big price for a horse that has won under these conditions at the track and distance in the past. Yes, he is probably deserving of being a big price against Winx, however, the place return of $4.80* looks awfully juicy. Has won a Doncaster here previously and finished seventh to Unforgotten last start in the Chelmsford. Was trapped wide for a good portion of the race before not enjoying a great deal of luck in the straight. Smaller field and the WFA conditions suit him. Can’t see him winning but is definitely one for the multiples.
6. Winx – H.Bowman (57kg) (Barrier 3): $1.10*: She is a champion and is aiming for 27 straight wins. Didn’t get asked to do a great deal first-up in the Winx Stakes first-up and has a brilliant record second-up (9s, 7w 1p) so this looks at her mercy. Loves Randwick, is a proven WFA performer and the small field of eight suits her as there are less horse to round up. Will probably settle midfield or a little worse and then Hughey just pulls her out on the turn to issue her challenge. Will go whooshka and rack up another win!
7. Egg Tart – K.McEvoy (57kg) (Barrier 6): $21*: Definitely didn’t come back as good as many expected in the autumn but Waller worked his magic during the Brisbane carnival to get her a Group Two WFA win against the very good Tradesman. First-up was climbing all over the back of them in Comin’ Through’s Tramway win and should have troubled the winner with clear running early. Is likely to get back from gate six and will need some luck. Can’t see her upsetting the stablemate but is the value play for exotics punters.
8. Unforgotten – G.Schofield (56.5kg) (Barrier 4): $12*: Is the logical quinella horse for Winx. She won at WFA level last time out, brilliantly taking out the Chelmsford after being bailed away early in the straight. She has a great turn of foot and is fantastic second-up, winning three times from four starts. Is on her way to the Epsom and will run a bottler. Expect her to settle in the back half of the field but watch for her to storm home late.
It’s Somewhat ($81)
Egg Tart ($21)
Well, unless you’ve got tens of thousands to throw on Winx, a win strategy in this race is useless. Place betting is the way to go with three place divis and It’s Somewhat and Egg Tart will be the two runners that provide the most value. Unforgotten ($1.55*) at the price looks a good bet for a place and represents more value than Winx for the win.
80% of the bank on Unforgotten for place ($1.55*)
10% of the bank on It’s Somewhat for place ($4.80*)
10% of the bank on Egg Tart for place ($2*)