The rail goes to the True position for the entire circuit after being out 7m the last time we were here at Flemington (August 11). Interesting to see how the track plays today as there weren’t too many horses that figured in the finish after racing on the speed on Aug 11.
Although this is a Group One race, none of these horses are recognised leaders. The Taj Mahal led and won at Sandown over 2400m but this is 800m less so does he still take up the running? Can’t see the likes of Kings Will Dream, Kementari or Humidor taking the front either so suspect there will be jostling for positions as soon as they come out of the barriers.
1. Happy Clapper – M.Zahra (59kg) (Barrier 12): $6.50*: Gets to a more suitable track and the conditions of the race suit. Barrier 12 means he will probably be in the second half of the field but if he get can get a good run in transit, I can see him swooping home. Was last when the punches were being thrown in the Memsie last start but really hit the line hard behind Humidor. Is a Doncaster Mile winner so has to be respected.
3. Humidor – D. Lane (59kg) (Barrier 1): $4.20*: Dive bombed them last start by taking the shortcuts to win the Memsie Stakes over Kementari in a great finish. That was second-up and importantly, half his career wins have been at that stage of the preparation. Humidor absolutely loves Flemington and has drawn the inside so he maps to sit just behind the speed. The one to hold out at the finish.
6. Comin’ Through – M.Walker (59kg) (Barrier 5): $11*: A bit of an under-rated horse that cannot be underestimated here. Knocked off Tom Melbourne in the Tramway and was a Group One winner during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Interestingly has only had one run in Melbourne and came from the rear to win the Carbine Club at this track back in 2016. Walker is riding like a demon at the moment proved that when extricating him off the fence last time out. Will more than likely be given a soft trip once again but look for him late.
10. Kings Will Dream – J. Allen (59kg) (Barrier 10): $4.20*: Did you see his run in the Memsie Stakes? The gelding was last at the 400m and flashed home through the centre of the field to finish third to Humidor and Kementari. Has a great turn of foot and the extra 200m will suit here. Will more than likely be in a similar position to last time so John Allen will need a bit of luck to go his way. One big advantage is his two wins at the track from just two starts. Hard to beat.
11. Kementari – C.Williams (58.5kg) (Barrier 8): $4*: It’s show time now for this Godolphin entire. Has had three runs back from a spell to finish placed behind Pierata and Humidor while he was fourth to champion mare Winx after being ridden to try and beat her second-up. His run in the Memsie was first rate and deserved more than second place. He was three-wide with no cover and still hit the line better than anything else! Barrier 8 makes it tricky for Williams but if he can secure a good spot in the run, I think he will get his second Group One.
Kings Will Dream ($4.20*)
Happy Clapper ($6.50*)
Not real strong chances outside of the favoured runners so we are going to stick our neck out on this one. Put the whole bank on Kementari ($4*) and sit back and watch what could turn out to be one of the races of the carnival!
100% of the bank on Kementari