The rail goes out 3m the entire circuit for Golden Rose Day and the surface is a Good 4. A fortnight ago at Rosehill, the track was a Heavy 8 with the rail in the True position. For most of the day horses that tended to race near the inside running or up on the speed were seen to advantage.
There does look to be a fair bit of speed in the Group One with the likes of Jonker, Sandbar, Santos and Danawi all liking to either set the pace or sit just off it. This leaves the likes of Zousain and Graff mapping to be just off them in the first half of the field while Lean Mean Machine and The Autumn Sun may be among those chasing the leaders from the rear.
1. Lean Mean Machine – T.Angland (56.5kg) (Barrier 7) $5.50*: Was at ridiculous odds last time out when taking out The Run To The Rose. Rattled home along the inside lanes from near the tail to divebomb Graff, going on to win by nearly a length but quite comfortably in the end. Does map to get back so will need the speed on so produce that big finishing burst of his. Has won over 1350m so distance will suit. Is definitely capable of winning this.
2. The Autumn Sun – K. McEvoy (56.5kg) (Barrier 10) $4.40*: A tragedy beaten last time out in the Stan Fox. Definitely not one of McEvoy’s best rides with the horse settling near the tail before being held up badly for a clear run most of the straight. Has won three of his four other starts and beaten Zousain and Lean Mean Machine in the past. Back on top of the ground will help. Barrier 10 will see him back near the tail again so needs a touch of luck. Has won over 1400 metres before. Hard to beat.
3. Zousain – J.McDonald (56.5kg) (Barrier 1) $8*: The forgotten horse? Was backed to take out The Run To The Rose first-up after beating Chautauqua in a trial, however, was one-paced up the straight in finishing fourth to stablemate Lean Mean Machine. May not have handled the Heavy as well as some others. Back on firm footing and out to 1400 could be more to his liking. A winner of two races in his career but has found Lean Mean Machine and The Autumn Sun a touch too good previously. Maps to get the run of the race just behind the leaders. Eachway all day!
4. Graff – J.Collett (56.5kg) (Barrier 4) $3.50*: Was massive when second in The Run To The Rose and should be unbeaten coming into this race. Was stuck three-wide the trip and outpointed every horse bar the winner (Lean Mean Machine). Won over 1300m at his second start. Was ultra impressive in winning the San Domenico. Can work in the run and has a big finish. Gets barrier four and will be stalking the leaders. A star in the making!
6. Santos – T.Clark (56.5kg) (Barrier 6) $16*: This guy could be the value runner in the race. Forget he went around first-up as he was blocked for a clear run the entire way last week in the Heritage Stakes. Is a Group 2 winner at two and possesses plenty of speed so Clark is likely to push forward at the start. Is tough but can he run out a strong 1400m?
The Autumn Sun ($4.40*)
Lean Mean Machine ($5.50*)
There is very little separating the top two so we suggest going one way or the other with the majority of your bank. For us, we are going for a big bet on Graff and a small saver on Zousain and Santos at odds.
70% of the bank on Graff to win ($3.50*)
20% of the bank on Zousain to win ($8*)
10% of the bank on Santos to win ($16*)