The rail goes out a further 3m this week to be out 6m from the 1600m to the winning post, +4m the remainder. Last week the track tended to play fairly with many horses back in the field given an ample opportunity to make ground. Strangely, no leaders ended up winning on the day but there was nothing wrong with the inside as Maximus stayed to the rails in the last to win convincingly.
Expect to be playing on a wet track as showers are forecast for the Sydney area so look for those with Soft form at the very least.
Thinkin’ Big looks the logical leader having taken up the running at his past two starts. Other than that, there doesn’t appear to be a natural leader with Cloak being the only other runner to have led recently.
1. Thinkin’ Big – T.Clark (56.5kg) (Barrier 7): $3.50*: There appears to be a sense of timing with this horse. The Waterhouse & Bott runner led throughout to win the Gloaming a fortnight back over 1800 metres, winning by two-and-a-half lengths over Tarka. It appeared the further the race went, the stronger he got. Loves to lead in his races and has gone all the way in his past two. Will find the front again and be hard to catch. Doesn’t mind the sting out of the ground either.
2. Tarka – J.McDonald (56.5kg) (Barrier 2): $8*: This colt boasts a huge scalp on his resume in The Autumn Sun so has to be respected. Knocked off the subsequent Golden Rose winner two starts back in a race where Dealmaker, also in this race, finished second. Seemed a little one-paced last time out when outpointed by Thinkin’ Big in the Gloaming. From barrier two expect him to be either in or near the lead. Has a win on Heavy so doesn’t mind the wet.
5. Dealmaker – D.Oliver (56.5kg) (Barrier 11): $7*: Looks to be a horse that will eat up the 2000 metres. Is trained by Chris Waller so you know he will be tough. Ran a cracking race when second to Tarka in the Stan Fox, beating home the crack three-year-old The Autumn Sun in the process. Has won over 1500m previously and flashed home over the same distance last time. This guy relishes the wet so definitely keep him on side heading into the race. Maps to get back from 11 so may need a touch of luck.
6. Mickey Blue Eyes – R.Bayliss (56.5kg) (Barrier 10): $9*: Is on the quick back-up having won the Dulcify last week at this track. Hit the line hard over 1600m so you would expect the 2000m to be up his alley. The one query is that he goes back to set weights whereas last week, he had 6kgs on the runner-up Gem Song. More than likely going to be in the second half of the field but watch for him to run on. Treat warily.
12. Frankely Awesome – C.Brown (54.5kg) (Barrier 12): $8.50*: Brings a bit of x-factor into the race. A winner of her only two starts, the filly came from near last to win at Scone on September 21. That followed her debut win at Newcastle where she won by three lengths. This is a huge step up in class but she is out of the Kris Lees stable which is absolutely flying at the moment. Has a great turn of foot which she will need as she is likely to be back in the pack turning for home.
Thinkin’ Big ($3.50*)
Mickey Blue Eyes ($9*)
Going for a bit of value here and banking on Dealmaker. The rain is set to arrive in Sydney in the lead-up to the race which will suit him to the ground. Represents great each way value. Outside of him, the favourite is going to be extremely hard to run down so we’ll have a saver on him.