The rail is out 9m the entire circuit with a Good 4 surface expected for Turnbull Stakes Day. This is the second meeting at headquarters within a fortnight. The most recent meeting was the midweek program on September 26 when the rail was out 14m the entire circuit.
This is a race with a few possible leaders including Grunt (9), Divine Unicorn (3) and Trap For Fools (6) while you can expect Kings Will Dream, Jon Snow and Youngstar to be just off the pace. Winx and co will settle in the back half of the field.
1. Grunt – M.Zahra (58kg) (Barrier 9): $11*: Hard to get a gauge on this guy. Won the Makybe Diva brilliantly at this track two starts ago but led and weakened out of the Underwood last week at Caulfield. On the quick back and returns to his favourite track where he has won three of four. The jockey said he was never comfortable at Caulfield. Has to give weight to Winx and others but is worth a place bet.
2. Winx – H.Bowman (57kg) (Barrier 8): $1.15*: We are running out of things to say about this champion mare. Winx is aiming for 28 straight wins and many of the corporates have already reported that she is carrying several big bets into the race. She was brilliant winning the George Main back on September 15 and from gate eight, she will be back towards the rear but that won’t be a concern. She will round them up and win again!
4. Kings Will Dream – C. Williams (56.5kg) (Barrier 1): $11*: Could he pose a threat to the great mare? She is his toughest test to date for sure but he is racing well enough to at least make it a contest. Hit the line hard against Grunt when second in the Makybe Diva, with a similar story two runs back when third in the Memsie to Humidor. Gets barrier one and maps to be behind the leader or three pairs back. Is the logical quinella option.
5. Jon Snow – S.Baster (55.5kg) (Barrier 2): $26*: Appears ready for the 2000m. did a power of work first-up over 1400m when fourth to Melody Belle back in New Zealand before sitting fourth in the run in the Makybe Diva. Lacked that turn of foot over 1600m but still finished third to Grunt. Should be nearing peak fitness and from barrier two, should be in the first half of the field and ready to strike.
10. Youngstar – K.McEvoy (54.5kg) (Barrier 4): $19*: Finally getting up to near her pet distance. Was a bit flat-footed in the Shannon Stakes last start when third to stablemate Noire. The late drift in betting told the story on that occasion. Jumps up 500m for this and is drawn perfectly in barrier four. Is tough and has won over this distance, albeit against three-year-old fillies, previously. Will run a nice race but suspect she is being set for something like the Caulfield Cup instead.
Kings Will Dream ($11*)
Jon Snow ($26*)
Well, the safest betting strategy would be to go ‘all in’ on Winx but that isn’t going to make us a great deal of money.
As is standard when the great mare goes around, place betting is much more appealing or the various ‘Favourite Out’ markets that corporates tend to offer. In that regard, Kings Will Dream is our chosen runner while we are tempted to speck Jon Snow at the price.