Caulfield Guineas Betting Preview
Waller eyeing off another Group One
The rail will be in the True position the entire circuit which is where it was the last time we raced here on September 29. On that day, it paid to be up near the speed but funnily enough, the rail appeared to be a little off too.
This is a very interesting race because there are a few that like to lead, most notably Native Soldier (4), while Tavisan (9) and Leonardo Da Hinchi (10) are others that like to be up in the first half dozen or so. Race favourite The Autumn Sun gets the chance to settle a bit closer than he normally would from gate five.
The Key Runners:
1. The Autumn Sun – J.McDonald (56.5kg) (Barrier 5): $2*: A deserving favourite. The Chris Waller colt was simply sensational in winning the Golden Rose last start, coming from last on straightening to overhaul Zousain and Graff. That win proved he is one of the best his age and winning this will dispel any doubts about that. Tends to get back in his races so there is an element of luck that needs to go his way, as we saw during the disastrous Stan Fox run when third which remains his only defeat in five starts. From barrier five, J Mac has the opportunity to settle him a little closer than usual. Has the best finish in the race and is the class runner. An excitement machine that should be winning again!
2. Native Soldier – B.Allen (56.5kg) (Barrier 4): $7*: Is the likely leader and will give them something to chase. The son of Sepoy has led at his past two starts at Caulfield and gone like an absolute machine on both occasions, winning over the 1200 and 1400 metres respectively. Up to 1600 now and from what we have seen, it shouldn’t be a concern for him. Hard to beat.
4. Leonardo da Hinchi – B Rawiller (56.5kg) (Barrier 10): $8.50*: Is a progressive type and has come a long way this preparation. Began quickly but was then trapped behind the leader in the Stutt Stakes last start, only finding clear running at the 150 metres, when he showed a great turn of foot to score. Prior to that looked as though he had caused the upset over hot favourite Brutal at Flemington but fell narrowly short. Definitely one for the multiples.
11. Tavisan – M.Walker (56.5kg) (Barrier 9): $13*: Could be the value runner in the Guineas. Has produced two three outstanding runs of late, finishing in the placings in Group Two, Group Three and Listed company. Chased hard when leading early and then taking the sit on Native Soldier in the Guineas Prelude. Couldn’t make an impression on the winner, finishing two lengths off, but easily outpointed the rest of the field. Is capable of working in the run for jockey Michael Walker who has been riding well of late. Eachway chance.
15. Oohood – K.McEvoy (54.5kg) (Barrier 6): $10*: Is the x-factor in the race. A perennial placegetter throughout her career, Oohood broke her maiden in sensational fashion last start. Forced to sit three-wide for most of the Group One Flight Stakes, she was entitled to get tired at the 200-metre mark but instead, lifted to a new level to nail talented filly Fiesta on the line. The daughter of I Am Invincible has proven she can run a strong 1600 metres and with a 2kg weight relief off the boys, she is worth having a crack on. Maps to get back but will be steaming home at the finish on a track where she has placed three from three on.
The Autumn Sun ($2*)
Leonardo da Hinchi ($8.50*)
We could be witnessing a very special horse in the making here. The Autumn Sun is going to carry the bulk of our investment but he is pretty short.
Outside of the favourite, we are throwing a few dollars on Tavisan and Oohood at the price as savers should The Autumn Sun not do what we are expecting – and that is win!
- 70% of the bank on The Autumn Sun to win ($2*)
- 15% of the bank on Oohood ($11*)
- 15% of the bank on Tavisan ($13*)
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