Thousand Guineas Betting Preview

Unbeaten filly the one to beat for Lees and McDonald

Oddschecker
 | 
Tue, 9 Oct, 3:00 AM

 

 

Race Shape:

 

 

The rail will be in the True position the entire circuit which is where it was the last time we raced here on September 29. On that day, it paid to be up near the speed but funnily enough, the rail appeared to be a little off too.

 

Hard to find a genuine leader here but Smart Melody (2) can get out of the gates and is likely to be in the firing line early, along with Thrillster (8) while Anjana (13) showed good speed in the Guineas Prelude but eventually took a sit.

 

 

 

The Key Runners:

 

 

1. El Dorado DreamingD.Lane (55.5kg) (Barrier 7): $7.50*: Comes into this second up but produced one of the runs of the race in the Guineas Prelude. Was held up near the tail of the field before Lane found clear running at the top of the straight, with El Dorado Dreaming flashing home to finish third to stablemate Smart Melody. Importantly, the race time and last 600m were faster than the C&G Prelude on the same day, so her finishing burst was full of merit. Gets barrier seven but maps to get back in the second half of the field again. Needs speed on but can be competitive.

 

 

4. ThrillsterN.Callow (55.5kg) (Barrier 8): $7*: Is an underrated filly and represents the biggest danger to the favourite in our opinion. Is yet to miss a placing from six career starts and produced arguably the run of the race in the Guineas Prelude. Was trapped three and four-wide the trip and yet had the audacity to push Smart Melody to a length in the end. The time was quicker than the boys on the day. Callow has options from barrier eight and could press on and find a spot close to the speed. Always starts a good price but always runs a terrific race. Danger.

 

 

Pick 6

 

5. Smart MelodyJ.McDonald (55.5kg) (Barrier 2): $3*: A deserving favourite. Has won all five career runs for trainer Kris Lees and not sure where the criticism from some corners has come from after her Guineas Prelude win a fortnight ago. Sure, she didn’t win by panels which is what most people expected but she sat outside the leader the whole race in a very quick time and beat the 12 other fillies on their merits. Adding further merit to the performance is that the time was over half a second quicker than the colts and geldings on the day. She is very good and drawn two should settle in the first five or six. The one to beat.

 

 

7. AmphitriteC.Williams (55.5kg) (Barrier 16): $8*: Is racing in stunning form and comes into the race chock full of confidence. Backs up after winning the Edward Manifold last week, where she reeled off a great closing sectional to beat Krone and Verry Elleegant over this distance. Two starts back she was ultra impressive yet again at Flemington when coming wide to win carrying 57kgs. First time at Caulfield is a question mark and the barrier (16) is disgusting but she is too good to ignore.

 

 

8. Krone – M.Zahra (55.5kg) (Barrier 14): $15*: Has put in some big runs this time without winning. First-up finished third to Thrillster in the Atlantic Jewel before sitting wide the entire race in Mystic Journey’s Jim Moloney when fourth. Last week played second fiddle to Amphitrite in the Edward Manifold after coming from near last on the turn. Looked as though it would challenge the winner at the 150m, however, Amphitrite kicked hard to win by 1.75 lengths. This filly is talented but barrier 14 means she will likely get back in the field again. Needs luck but is a value player.

 

 

 

Selections:

 

 

          Smart Melody ($3*)

           Thrillster ($7*)

          Amphitrite ($8*)

          El Dorado Dreaming ($7.50*)

 

 

 

Betting Plan:

 

 

This is a tremendous betting race. We are sticking with Smart Melody for the majority of our bank as she aims to remain perfect in six career starts.

 

Thrillster is definitely worth having something on for a saver while Krone is worth having a small investment on each way despite not being able to find a spot for her in our first four selections.

 

 

 

Suggested Play:

 

 

  • 60% of the bank on Smart Melody to win ($3*)
  • 20% of the bank on Thrillster to win ($7*)
  • 20% of the bank on Krone each way ($15/$4.29*)

 

 

 

Here are a few more articles you might be interested in:

 

The Kosciuszko

The Everest

The Everest runner-by-runner analysis

Toorak Handicap

Caulfield Stakes

Caulfield Guineas

Caulfield Tips

Randwick Tips

Morphettville Tips

 

 

 

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