TAB Everest Betting Preview
It’s a wide-open field this year, with 5 horses all competing for favouritism. However, in boggy Randwick conditions we believe one horse in particular ticks all boxes.
The rail goes back to the True position for this meeting after it was out 6m (1600m-WP) and 4m (the remainder) for last week’s card. As of Wednesday evening, we were looking at a Heavy surface and with further rain expected leading into the weekend, one thing’s for sure – you will need to do your wet track form!
Who leads? Redzel has speed to burn early so he could be the logical leader while Vega Magic (7) is likely to press on as well. Between the two of them there is your leader. Of the others, Le Romain (11) is capable of coming out while Santa Ana Lane (9), Shoals (2) and Viddora (12) are likely to posse up midfield or a little worse with Brave Smash (4) just ahead of those.
The Key Runners:
1. Redzel – K.McEvoy (58.5kg) (Barrier 1): $7*: The defending champ. Has been one of the best sprinters in Australia over the past two years but comes into the race under a cloud. Led and faded to finish fifth in the Premiere Stakes after setting a record tempo over the 1200 metres but did go into that race off a setback. Team Snowden wouldn’t be running him if he wasn’t ready for this. Can handle the wet, loves the track and distance. Discount him at your peril.
2. Santa Ana Lane – B.Melham (58.5kg) (Barrier 9): $7*: is a genuine threat. Possesses one of the best finishing bursts in Australia as he showed when winning the Premiere Stakes in record time last start. Loves the wet, has five wins over the distance and did win The Goodwood on a Soft back in May. Maps to get back in the second half of the field but if he is close enough on the home turn, look for him to flash home late.
4. Trapeze Artist – T.Angland (58.5kg) (Barrier 6): $7*: Comes into this off a fourth to Santa Ana Lane in the Premiere Stakes when it appeared as though he had every possible chance. Is now two runs in to this preparation and hasn’t been far off on both occasions. Gets back to his suitable distance (8s, 4w) and doesn’t mind the wet conditions. This time last year when third-up, he produced an outstanding run to blitz the Golden Rose field. Is he ready to produce that same effort again?
10. Shoals – T.Clark (56.5kg) (Barrier 2): $7.50*: The more you look at this mare, the more you think It’s her race to lose. Has won four from six at the distance, is three from three on wet tracks (1s, 1w on Heavy) and is yet to finish worse than second in three runs at Randwick. From barrier two she maps to be no worse than midfield. If she produces the type of finish she showed in the Premiere Stakes, when coming from near last to go down by 0.2l to Santa Ana Lane, she will be winning this. Oh, did we mention she has had four starts for two wins and two placings when second-up? Ticks all the boxes.
12. Graff – B.Avdulla (53kg) (Barrier 10): $17*: The unknown quantity in the race and is the sole three-year-old in this year’s edition. Was huge when second in the Run To The Rose (1200m) on a Heavy track and came from the second half of the field to finish third to potential superstar The Autumn Sun in the Golden Rose. Love the way he monstered the line in the San Domenico three starts back on Soft going. The colt gives the impression he is better suited to the sprint trips and with a cosy enough run is capable of causing some headaches. Important, Avdulla chose to stay in Sydney to ride this guy rather than head to Caulfield for the gun ride on Smart Melody in the Thousand Guineas.
Trapeze Artist ($7*)
Santa Ana Lane ($7*)
You can go so many different ways and still miss the winner! We are going for Shoals as our main bet on the race because she is almost guaranteed to get a good run in transit and hopefully won’t be too far off them rounding the home turn.
Definitely want to save on Graff while Trapeze Artist is another that we’ll have something small on for a saver. You can’t back them all so that is the only reason why Santa Ana Lane misses out in our staking plan.
- 60% of the bank on Shoals to win ($7.50*)
- 30% of the bank on Trapeze Artist to win ($7*)
- 10% of the bank on Graff to win ($17*)
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