2018 Cox Plate Betting Preview

Winx is poised to become the first horse to ever win 4 Cox Plates. Here’s how to get some value out of her prohibitive odds.

Oddschecker
 | 
Wed, 24 Oct, 12:00 AM

 

Race Shape:

 

The rail stays in the true form the Manikato meeting the night prior. We’ll get a good gauge on how it’ll play from that meeting. Suggesting after 17 races there’ll start using most of the track, giving the swoopers a great chance.

 

The internationals, Benbatl and Rostropovich, should head-up the field and have the tempo at their mercy. Suggesting they’ll go at even sections early then set the race alight early (1000-800m out). They’ll likely pair off behind these two in the following order; Kings Will Dream and Savvy Coup, D’Argento and Winx, Auvilius and Humidor.

 

 

The Key Runners:

 

1. Benbatl (Barrier 3) (O. Murphy 59kg): $8.50*

The 5yo possesses a quality international profile, winning 5 of his last 8 starts, 3 in Group 1 company. Interestingly he does his best racing away from his UK home; evidenced by his 4:3-1-0 record in Dubai, highlighted by a 3.3L demolition in the G1 Dubai Turf over 1800m, and his gutsy first-up win here in the G1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m. He looked ready in the parade last-start but drifted alarmingly late, perhaps suggesting he’s not the best worker. He’ll make his own luck up-front and is deservedly fancied for a place.

 

 

2. Humidor (Barrier 7) (D. Lane 59kg): $16*

Interesting price at $16 with some new hyped gallopers entering the fray. He ran Winx to within 1L in this race last year almost causing the ultimate boil over. Has a very similar profile here. Most importantly the blinkers go back on, a massive sign of intent with this horse, improving him lengths into last year’s Cox Plate. He’s been set for this race all Spring and draws ideally with the speed on to track Winx everywhere she goes like last year. Brilliant value.

 

 

3. Kings Will Dream (Barrier 4) (J. Allen 59kg): $34*

Given no chance the way the Caulfield Cup was run last start. Too far back off the walking tempo, Winx would’ve been stretched to win. Given he SP’d as favourite there his form in the lead-up oozed quality; close-up in 3 G1 events leading into the Cup, including a 0.2L Third to Humidor in the G1 Makybe Diva over 1400m and a 1.75L Third to Winx in the G1 Turnbull over 2000m (in the worst part of the ground). Will push forward here with the blinkers on for the first time and have plenty of gas left in the tank after last start. Right exotics calculations.

 

 

4. Auvilius (Barrier 1) (G. Schofield 59kg): $26*

Un-beaten in Australia and going for 5 in a row here. However, this is his hardest task by a distance having won at G3 level thrice and BM91 level the other start. Never wins by a space owing to his racing pattern but has been stylish all the way through. Boasts a 3.5L second to Cracksman in the G2 Prix De Niel, beating Finche by 1L who was solid for third in a low rating Geelong Cup. Only beat Jaameh by 1.35L in the Bart Cummings would have started long odds in the Caulfield Cup (drawing a parallel to Kings Will Dream). Not out of the exotics, but price based somewhat on hype.

 

 

6. Winx (Barrier 6) (H. Bowman 57kg): $1.22*F

What’s left to say? Going for 29 wins in a row, her 22nd win at Group 1 level and her 4th consecutive Cox Plate. She’s currently rated the best race horse in the world and rightfully so. She loves the Valley, recording some of her most dynamic wins in her previous 3 Cox Plates. Will get the pace put on here which she relishes. Only thing that can get her beat is pilot error, the odds of which diminish in a small field. She’ll win.

 

 

Selections:

 

          Winx ($1.22*F)

          Humidor ($16*)

          Benbatl ($8.50*)

          Kings Will Dream ($35*)

 

 

Betting Plan:

 

Going for value around the Darren Weir runners each running a big race here.

  • 40% of the race bank on Winx/Humidor exacta ($5.50* in Sportsbet’s BYO Cox Plate markets)
  • 30% of the race bank on the trifecta: 1st: Winx, 2nd: Humidor, Benbatl, 3rd: Humidor, Benbatl, Kings Will Dream.
  • 30% of the race bank on the first four: 1st: Winx, 2nd: Humidor, Benbatl, 3rd: Humidor, Benbatl, Kings Will Dream, 4th: Humidor, Benbatl, Kings Will Dream, Auvilius.

 

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