2018 Kennedy Oaks Betting Preview
Amphitrite comes up a short $3.50 favourite for Weir. Having not stretched past 1600m in her career we’re looking to take a stance against her at the current odds.
The deck coped magnificently with the 30+mm of rain on Cup Day, eventually drying back into the soft 6 range after being a heavy 8 at one stage. There is another 1-5mm forecast of Wednesday in gloomy conditions, but providing the bureau are somewhere near the mark this time the track should stay in the soft range. This late in the day we can see horses making their runs outside the centre of the track gaining some advantage.
Greysful Glamour (barrier 1) and Sizzleme (14) look a distinct leading pair, setting a moderate clip only. Maracaibo and Qafila will look to sit behind them. Aristia will also look to kick-up from her inside draw. Zapurler will sit midfield from an inside draw, whilst coming across: Collectable and Verry Elleegant look to get nice midfield runs from their wider gates. There’ll be a busy tail with most other runners looking to take a sit and peel out to the better ground.
1. Amphitrite (Barrier 5) (C. Williams 55.5kg): $3.50F
Had won 4 from 4 this preparation until a luckless run saw her finish 11th in the G1 Empire Rose last-start over 1600m. Craig Williams re-unites with the daughter of Sebring after piloting her to victory in the G1 Thousand Guineas over 1600m two back ($13 SP). A positive jockey change given Williams is 4 from 4 on her. Having not been tried over further than 1600m, the 2500m is a genuine query and from an inside barrier she’ll need luck. Can’t have the $3.50, over-played as an unlucky runner last-start, but certainly has the credentials.
2. Aristia (Barrier 4) (D. Lane 55.5kg): $4.80
Backs up off a win in the G2 Wakeful over 2000m last-start. She received the perfect run in that traditional lead-up and looks to land in a nice spot again here regardless of where the best ground is. She was narrowly defeated by Verry Elleegant the start prior over 2000m in the Ethereal, fighting back gallantly when challenged. The two 2000m runs will provide her with a nice fitness base stepping up to the 2500m. By Lonhro, the soft ground shan’t pose an issue. Price around the mark, should go close.
3. Qafila (Barrier 10) (J. Crowley 55.5kg): $8
Could be a touch forgotten here at $8. Was held-up behind the leaders in the Wakeful last-start, just as the winner Aristia made her move. Got going nicely once she got out to be beaten less than 1 length, worth noting she was backed heavily late too. She’ll be having her 7th run for this preparation so the fitness is certainly there. Only plugged away to the line in shorter distances without being disgraced, implying the 2500m will be right up her alley. Another on that should handle the soft on breeding. Looks the value.
4. Verry Elleegant (Barrier 13) (J. Allen 55.5kg): $5
After an unlucky debut in Australia, running a 2.5L third behind Amphitrite (who had the fitness edge) in the Edward Manifold she then came out and put them away with ease in the Ethereal over 2000m. Particularly liked her last 50m there and it could be a similar race-shape here. She then understandably started a short-priced favourite in the Wakeful (late drift to $2.40) only to be restrained back to last, fight the rider the entire trip and finish in 5th still running the fastest last 600m and 400m sectionals. Doubt those tactics will be employed in her grand final here. The nose roll goes on to help her settle. Provided she does so, 2500m on soft going looks the perfect set-up for her being by Zed. Goes on top.
5. Greysful Glamour (Barrier 1) (T. Clark 55.5kg): $17
Rocketed into contention after a dominant win in the 1800m Oaks Trial at Flemington two starts ago. That race provided last year’s winner Pinot. Was since disappointing when starting hard in the market in the Ethereal. Given a nice run up on speed only to flounder late into 7th. That’s a serious concern stepping up to the 2500m here. That concern is only somewhat offset by the control she’ll get up front. Looking to others.
6. Sizzleme (Barrier 14) (L. Currie 55.5kg): $21
Another galloper coming through the Ethereal/Wakeful path. Ran very credible races from on-pace positions in both of those events and maps to get every chance to do so again here. The blinkers come off in hopes to run the 2500m after weakening late last-start. Negative jockey change Melham to Currie. Could entertain for the 3rd or 4th positions in an exotic.
7. Dark Confidant (Barrier 15) (R. Bayliss 55.5kg): $41
Worked home with some merit in both the Manifold and Ethereal Stakes. Particularly in the Manifold when significantly checked with 400m to go, balancing up then running on for 8th out wide. Was 7.5L astern of Verry Elleegant in the Ethereal and will give plenty of the more fancied runners a start again. Would need to improve significantly to be a winning chance but if they overdo it up front she profiles as one that will be pluggin home at odds.
12. Collectable (Barrier 11) (J. McDonald 55.5kg): $19
Yet to break her maiden she out performed her $61 SP when running 4th to Verry Elleegant in the Ethereal, beaten 3.25L. That margin only narrowed past the post, suggesting 2500m will suit. Form prior not awful, beaten by horses such as Thousand Wishes (4th in Manifold). Another one who’ll look to take a sit, J McDonald should be able to angle out to the better ground. Goes in exotics.
1) Verry Elleegant ($5)
2) Qafila ($8)
3) Aristia ($4.80)
4) Amphirtite ($3.50F)