2018 Kingston Town Classic betting preview
It’s now one-all in the Group 1’s between the local and eastern state trained horses moving into the final G1 of the Masters. The cerise and white hold the keys once again according to the early market. But we believe their forgotten galloper at $17* has a big chance.
The rail moves out to the +6m position. After rails in run was key on Railway day, the track played superbly last weekend with tempo being the most decisive factor. With perfect weather again in the lead-up we’re expecting much the same here.
Speed looks fast, but not quite Railway tempo. Great Shot (barrier 5) should lead them up with Trap For Fools (10) to his outside. Surely Iconoclasm will kick up this time from 8 with Achenar Star (1) and Material Man (2) prominent from their inside draws. Outsiders Prying Tom (15) and Heart Starter (11) will look to slot in from wide covering the likes of Gatting (3), Perfect Jewel (4) and Arcadia Queen (6). Rest back.
The Key Runners:
1. Trap For Fools (Barrier 10) (D. Oliver 59kg): $7.50*
Surprise winner of the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at WFA over 2000m last start when $20 out to $26. The favourite Blair House flopped massively there, however, this gelding still defeated 6 Group 1 winners. Race shape suited there, and form prior was plain. Plain enough to be denied a Cox Plate start. He’ll kick up again here and show his usual fight to the finish. Last time at 1800m he was defeated over 2 lengths by Pacodali who would start monster odds here. Unless leaders are heavily suited, we couldn’t suggest taking $7.50 with the concussion plates on.
2. Material Man (Barrier 2) (L. Warwick 59kg): $8*
2nd in this race last year. Only rises 2kg in the weights, meeting plenty from the Railway comparatively better out to a more suitable trip second-up. Presented well in the yard prior to the Railway with some improvement to come and was a horse to follow after carting the field up to a tear-away leader and still sticking on for a narrow 3rd. Maps perfectly again here and has the capacity to improve 2-3 lengths based on the parade. Only needs to make up 1.75L Galaxy Star who’s now 2kg worse off on the relative weights. Stable has been very bullish, not expecting $8 come jump.
3. Gatting (Barrier 3) (D. Lane 59kg): $14*
After being run unusually slowly, his G2 Lee Stakes win seemed anomalous. However, after his effort in the Railway, it’s safe to say this galloper has gone to a new level this preparation. He presented to the outside after getting a gun run and ran home strongly into 2nd, just lacking the dash of the winner. He’s still open to improvement at 1800m third-up (having won out to 2400m) and maps acceptably here, just needing a slice of D.Lane brilliance if he’s three-back the fence. Meets Material Man 3kg worse off for beating him a nose, but we’re getting good odds. Keeping safe at odds.
10. Iconoclasm (Barrier 8) (D. Yendall 58.5kg): $21*
Disappointed last start in the Railway. Presenting beautifully in the yard and backed $9 into $7 accordingly, he didn’t show his usual early speed and crabbed around the corner from a mid-field position to wind up 8th beaten 4.25L. Untested beyond 1600m, rises 5.5kg in the weights and has a negative jockey switch. He’s open to improvement but will need a stack to be figuring here.
12. Galaxy Star (Barrier 14) (C. Parnham 57kg): $4.80*
Winner of the main lead-up G1 Railway Stakes where she started a dominant $2.90 favourite (only the second time in her career being at black odds come jump). Having won 10 times and placed 2nd another 3, she’s yet to miss a top 2 finish in her career, hence her SP profile. She mapped to need luck and she got one of the best steers from Pike you will ever see. Exploited rails in run, shifted out on the turn into clear air and she was never in doubt. Doesn’t need as much luck here drawing wider, mitigating the jockey switch. Slightly forgotten at the odds due to the Pike-factor.
14. Perfect Jewel (Barrier 4) (P. Hall 56.5kg): $17*
Form was only fair coming into the Railway Stakes, being beaten 2.25L by Galaxy Star in the Northerly then 6.25L by Gatting in the Lee Stakes. However, the fast tempo suited this galloper down to the ground and she produced the run of the race at $81. Settling last she changed back to the inside, sliced up the inside, was held up by a tiring leader then had to audacity to attack the line again for 4th. Think the key to this girl is a strong tempo and the extra 200m will suit. Based off the Railway run $17* seems massive odds.
15. Arcadia Queen (Barrier 6) (W. Pike 50kg): $2.60F*
Massive 3 length winner of the Group 2 WA Guineas last start at $1.90, returning some sizzling figures on the clock. Despite no change of tactics announcement, she was ridden far more forward there to get the box seat there and the race looked over after 200m. She could do so again here from 6 with no weight, but we suspect the more seasoned gallopers will hold her to mid-field at best. This is by far her toughest test to date going to in WFA company, but she gets the weight to be competitive. At $2.60, we think the Pike-factor is over-played by the market (for a change…).
- Material Man ($8*)
- Perfect Jewel ($17*)
- Gatting ($14*)
- Galaxy Star ($4.80*)
Betting around the Pike favourite. Making our top 2 selections good results and saving on the Railway quinella, both at good odds.
- 40% of the race bank on Material Man ($8*)
- 25% of the race bank on Perfect Jewel (($17*)
- 10% of the race bank on Gatting ($14*)
- 25% of the race bank on Galaxy Star ($4.80*)